3 ms·
Accurate black box is fine until it blows a forecast and people die, and you want to fix it for the next time. Take the situation with Hurricane Otis — what do
by labster 2y ago
Accurate black box is fine until it blows a forecast and people die, and you want to fix it for the next time.
Take the situation with Hurricane Otis — what do you do if an AI doesn’t detect cyclogenesis 24-48 hours beforehand? Are we sure tuning the model to detect this event will improve forecast skill in general, or will it make it worse?
- nradov 2y agoWeather forecasting models will gradually improve over time but it's unreasonable to expect perfect accuracy. That is mathematically impossible in a chaotic system. Some people will always die in extreme weather events.