6 ms·

Neither of your theories answer the question -- how did he know that the CEO was staying in a hotel other than Hilton (conference venue) and would arrive by foo

by lr1970 2y ago

Neither of your theories answer the question -- how did he know that the CEO was staying in a hotel other than Hilton (conference venue) and would arrive by foot 1 hour and 15 minutes before conference opens at 8am (CEOs do not typically arrive so early in advance). The shooter was caught on camera talking on a burner phone 15 minutes before shooting. Who did he talk to? Was he acting alone or received some help? The shooter only had to wait for 15 minutes or so before his target arrives. Pure "luck" or help from inside?

jimbob45 2y ago
This is my sticking point as well. The bullet messages only made sense for this specific guy and that’s a whole lot of work to engrave bullets, take a multi-state bus ride, camp out in a hostel, etc if you’re not 100% sure the guy is going to be there. I’d feel more confident if he’d staked the route out for multiple days or if there was a plausible backup plan like breaking in to the CEO’s hotel or the conference.
- brookst 2y ago
  Isn’t this just selection bias? If he had been wrong and not seen the CEO, we would never have heard about him. For all we know he made 15 attempts before this.
  - notahacker 2y ago
    Yep. Also, if you're trying to surprise someone at their arrival to an event, you absolutely do arrive super early to wait for them rather than try to guess their exact arrival time. If the target had arrived in mid morning after missing the opening speech instead, his killer would have waited. If the target had made a late decision not to attend, we'd have probably found out about the killer via the next event or next target
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  > that’s a whole lot of work to engrave bullets They weren't engraved. It was just Sharpie. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-healthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-shooting-bullets-words-written-on-them/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-healthcare-ceo-brian-tho... "A source briefed on the investigation said each word was meticulously written, not etched, onto the casings in Sharpie." > 100% sure the guy is going to be there. One can be 100% sure the guy is gonna at least be at the conference, and humans tend to be predictable. He was also fairly likely to be at the venue the day before getting prepared.
- dev-ns8 2y ago
  This is exactly what us hunters do year after year, time and time again. Drive for hours, hike for miles. Gathering what information we can. Then at some point we have to make assumptions and commit to some scenario in hopes it pans out the way you assume. A tremendous amount of time and effort is spent with it all riding on a few, hopefully, well placed assumptions. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. Usually your acquaintances only hear about the times the hunt works out. Same with this. We only hear about it, because it worked out for the hunter
sizzle 2y ago
Also I read it was a 3D printed gun and silencer which is hard to believe just printed it and never practiced or is he trained at shooting?
- sroussey 2y ago
  It does explain the malfunction though.
  - chasd00 2y ago
    Yeah if a 3d printed silencer works at all it will only work once. It will be deformed by the heat and obstruct the bullet on the next shot.
    - dole 2y ago
      No, it won't. It's possible to 3d print suppressors that withstand multiple shots, even mag dumps if they're made robustly enough. He needed a Neilsen device or piston in the suppressor to assist with cycling on the action, which he didn't have. He's not surprised that he has to rack the slide after every shot, he knows that it most likely will not cycle and he'll have to work it manually and he reaches immediately to do it. edit: i'll speculate and say the suppressor still worked after the shooting because he still had it on him. if it was melted or broken, he may have been more apt to toss it.
      - sizzle 2y ago
        Do you think he practiced before this or took a leap of faith with a possibly defective printed silencer? It’s bonkers to me that he would just hope for the best and possibly have it fail during the encounter and also it’s curious that he knew about the racking thing with every shot. I mean he’s clearly a bright individual, Ivy League and comp sci major and all so did he study YouTube videos or something?
JeremyNT 2y ago
There are plenty of plausible explanations, but it probably wouldn't have been a huge lift to get Thompson's itinerary from his secretary by spearfishing or some other form of social engineering.
potato3732842 2y ago
Find when CEO is going to speak at conference, work backward from there. Conference probably had a hotel block they were booking and a link to book so you know which hotel to camp. Not rocket science at all, just basic OSint Waiting 15min instead of 1hr 15min was probably luck though.
- lr1970 2y ago
  > Conference probably had a hotel block they were booking and a link to book so you know which hotel to camp. In this case it was Hilton. And if the CEO stayed at Hilton he had no reason to be on the street outside the hotel where the killer was waiting for him. Somehow the shooter knew that the target is not staying at the Hilton and will be walking to the front entrance. BTW, the normal practice for high profile individuals to arrive in a car to a service entrance hidden from the public.
ceejayoz 2y ago
> how did he know that the CEO was staying in a hotel other than Hilton Because someone paid that much money stays at a fancier place, like one of the Conrads or Waldorf Astorias. Hilton's a mid-level brand. Or, you follow him from the conference center the day before.
Symbiote 2y ago
> CEOs do not typically arrive so early in advance But they may well have arranged other, small meetings with people also attending the same annual meeting. It's then convenient to have them all in the same hotel.
Supermancho 2y ago
Was this the first time he tried it? Probably not.

by lr1970 2y ago

jimbob45 2y ago

This is my sticking point as well. The bullet messages only made sense for this specific guy and that’s a whole lot of work to engrave bullets, take a multi-state bus ride, camp out in a hostel, etc if you’re not 100% sure the guy is going to be there. I’d feel more confident if he’d staked the route out for multiple days or if there was a plausible backup plan like breaking in to the CEO’s hotel or the conference.

brookst 2y ago
Isn’t this just selection bias? If he had been wrong and not seen the CEO, we would never have heard about him. For all we know he made 15 attempts before this.
- notahacker 2y ago
  Yep. Also, if you're trying to surprise someone at their arrival to an event, you absolutely do arrive super early to wait for them rather than try to guess their exact arrival time. If the target had arrived in mid morning after missing the opening speech instead, his killer would have waited. If the target had made a late decision not to attend, we'd have probably found out about the killer via the next event or next target
ceejayoz 2y ago
> that’s a whole lot of work to engrave bullets They weren't engraved. It was just Sharpie. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-healthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-shooting-bullets-words-written-on-them/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-healthcare-ceo-brian-tho... "A source briefed on the investigation said each word was meticulously written, not etched, onto the casings in Sharpie." > 100% sure the guy is going to be there. One can be 100% sure the guy is gonna at least be at the conference, and humans tend to be predictable. He was also fairly likely to be at the venue the day before getting prepared.
dev-ns8 2y ago
This is exactly what us hunters do year after year, time and time again. Drive for hours, hike for miles. Gathering what information we can. Then at some point we have to make assumptions and commit to some scenario in hopes it pans out the way you assume. A tremendous amount of time and effort is spent with it all riding on a few, hopefully, well placed assumptions. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. Usually your acquaintances only hear about the times the hunt works out. Same with this. We only hear about it, because it worked out for the hunter

sizzle 2y ago

Also I read it was a 3D printed gun and silencer which is hard to believe just printed it and never practiced or is he trained at shooting?

sroussey 2y ago
It does explain the malfunction though.
- chasd00 2y ago
  Yeah if a 3d printed silencer works at all it will only work once. It will be deformed by the heat and obstruct the bullet on the next shot.
  - dole 2y ago
    No, it won't. It's possible to 3d print suppressors that withstand multiple shots, even mag dumps if they're made robustly enough. He needed a Neilsen device or piston in the suppressor to assist with cycling on the action, which he didn't have. He's not surprised that he has to rack the slide after every shot, he knows that it most likely will not cycle and he'll have to work it manually and he reaches immediately to do it. edit: i'll speculate and say the suppressor still worked after the shooting because he still had it on him. if it was melted or broken, he may have been more apt to toss it.
    - sizzle 2y ago
      Do you think he practiced before this or took a leap of faith with a possibly defective printed silencer? It’s bonkers to me that he would just hope for the best and possibly have it fail during the encounter and also it’s curious that he knew about the racking thing with every shot. I mean he’s clearly a bright individual, Ivy League and comp sci major and all so did he study YouTube videos or something?

JeremyNT 2y ago

There are plenty of plausible explanations, but it probably wouldn't have been a huge lift to get Thompson's itinerary from his secretary by spearfishing or some other form of social engineering.

potato3732842 2y ago

Find when CEO is going to speak at conference, work backward from there. Conference probably had a hotel block they were booking and a link to book so you know which hotel to camp. Not rocket science at all, just basic OSint Waiting 15min instead of 1hr 15min was probably luck though.

lr1970 2y ago
> Conference probably had a hotel block they were booking and a link to book so you know which hotel to camp. In this case it was Hilton. And if the CEO stayed at Hilton he had no reason to be on the street outside the hotel where the killer was waiting for him. Somehow the shooter knew that the target is not staying at the Hilton and will be walking to the front entrance. BTW, the normal practice for high profile individuals to arrive in a car to a service entrance hidden from the public.

ceejayoz 2y ago

> how did he know that the CEO was staying in a hotel other than Hilton Because someone paid that much money stays at a fancier place, like one of the Conrads or Waldorf Astorias. Hilton's a mid-level brand. Or, you follow him from the conference center the day before.

Symbiote 2y ago

> CEOs do not typically arrive so early in advance But they may well have arranged other, small meetings with people also attending the same annual meeting. It's then convenient to have them all in the same hotel.

Supermancho 2y ago

Was this the first time he tried it? Probably not.