3 ms·

I much agree with your assessment of the challenge, but I think Intel’s only chance is to capitalize on vertical integration of chip, design, fab. TSMC works cl

I much agree with your assessment of the challenge, but I think Intel’s only chance is to capitalize on vertical integration of chip, design, fab. TSMC works closely with big customer (cough Apple), but there are still boundaries there. Intel needs to step back, enjoy the runway the CHIPs act got them, and really think hard about the top to bottom design and fab of an absolutely killer 2027 / 2028 chip would look like. They aren’t as good at design as Apple, and they aren’t as good at fab as TSMC, but they are within striking distance of both and they have that vertical integration opportunity.

MBCook 2y ago
Wouldn’t that basically require becoming better at fabing than TSMC again? If they can catch up, but not exceeded, then they can’t make a better product than they do right now. I guess it should cut their costs some amount (don’t know how much) which would certainly be a big plus. But without taking the lead again… would that be enough? I suppose if they caught up they could also fab other people‘s chips as Pat wanted to. If they’re tied for best (or at least close) they could probably pick up accounts that TSMC doesn’t have space for or are perhaps too small to help fill out their capacity. While I was listening to the podcast I was thinking about how it almost seems like sort of a historical accident that they’re both design and fabrication. Does anyone else do that at this point? I know it was common early on but maybe it’s just not that sustainable by now. I don’t know. I guess I see splitting the company is more likely to succeed, simply because the design side works and would lose the anchor that it’s tied to. Successfully pulling off a fix while keeping the company intact may be a better outcome if possible though.
- brookst 2y ago
  I honestly don’t know. But I don’t think they have to be better than TSMC, or even quite as good. Intel’s strength is the design + fab integration. If they are 90% as good as fab as TSMC and 95% as good as Apple or Nvidia at design… maybe that’s sufficient to be competitive.
philistine 2y ago
Do you honestly believe that Intel can outperform every single company making chips? They're the last vertical chip maker. Samsung is still trying, but they're not beating the one-two punch of Apple design, TSMC production that's for sure.

MBCook 2y ago

Wouldn’t that basically require becoming better at fabing than TSMC again? If they can catch up, but not exceeded, then they can’t make a better product than they do right now. I guess it should cut their costs some amount (don’t know how much) which would certainly be a big plus. But without taking the lead again… would that be enough? I suppose if they caught up they could also fab other people‘s chips as Pat wanted to. If they’re tied for best (or at least close) they could probably pick up accounts that TSMC doesn’t have space for or are perhaps too small to help fill out their capacity. While I was listening to the podcast I was thinking about how it almost seems like sort of a historical accident that they’re both design and fabrication. Does anyone else do that at this point? I know it was common early on but maybe it’s just not that sustainable by now. I don’t know. I guess I see splitting the company is more likely to succeed, simply because the design side works and would lose the anchor that it’s tied to. Successfully pulling off a fix while keeping the company intact may be a better outcome if possible though.

brookst 2y ago
I honestly don’t know. But I don’t think they have to be better than TSMC, or even quite as good. Intel’s strength is the design + fab integration. If they are 90% as good as fab as TSMC and 95% as good as Apple or Nvidia at design… maybe that’s sufficient to be competitive.

philistine 2y ago

Do you honestly believe that Intel can outperform every single company making chips? They're the last vertical chip maker. Samsung is still trying, but they're not beating the one-two punch of Apple design, TSMC production that's for sure.