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Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the res
by throwup238 2y ago
Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has been surpsingly moderate in its stewardship of the Idlib governate.
There are reasons to interpret this as very good news: Iran and Russia no longer have enough resources to project power. Even with a warm water port and strategic position in the Mediterranean at stake, they just can’t prop up the regime anymore. I can’t help but think that two fewer regional powers meddling in Syrian affairs is nothing but a stabilizing force.
Almost seven million Syrian refugees might have the chance to return home and rebuild now. That’s great news.
- bbor 2y agoAny regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! The future is uncertain, but it's not like "everyone chills out and gets into their hobbies" was an option -- it's gotta be one of the most war-ravaged places to exist in human history.
- lukan 2y agoHave you heard of a thing called, Islamic State? They had a thing for creative murder. Aside from the usual behadings, they came up with things like pushing homosexuals from buildings in the public and alike. They are also now free again.
- gwervc 2y ago[flagged]
- j_maffe 2y agoHTS has cut off ties with ALQaeda and IS since almost 10 years.
- lukan 2y agoA) in the open B) they released all prisoners now. And at least some of them were part of ISIS.
- j_maffe 2y agoThe majority of them (at the Saydenia) are political imprisoned citizens.
- lukan 2y agoWell, technical IS supporters (who did not participated in killings themself) are political imprisoned citizens as well. The point is, that no matter what they did, they are all free now.
- j_maffe 2y agoWhat are you trying to state? There's a small number of citizen IS supporters and they're now free, along with all others who showed opposition to the regime. Ok. So what? Please don't use a general understanding of the patterns in the region to extrapolate wild takes when you don't know the specifics of each country and their people. Syrians are not Afghans are not Libyans are not whatever, as much as the west would like to portray them.
- lukan 2y ago"There's a small number of citizen IS supporters and they're now free" If their numbers are so small, why was the IS a global problem then, a couple of years ago?
- sabbaticaldev 2y ago10 years ago. They were a problem because they used American cars, clothes, weapons and media.
- orwin 2y agoI mean, unlike another nation south of them, at least for now, they didn't destroy Christian churches (the opposite in fact, rebel-controled territory rebuilt Christian churches), and let Christian orphanage/school stand without expropriation under false pretense. How it will develop has yet to be seen, but I'm hopeful.
- aaa_aaa 2y agoHow is this an answer to the op's statement?. Assad was a war criminal just like his father. Remember the Hama 1982. Son followed dad by killing thousands, torturing and displaced millions. West will support and try a rosy picture of so called secular totalitarians as long as it fits to their agenda.
- lukan 2y agoIt is an answer to the claim, that freeing everyone is always to be considered a good thing. Freeing all the political prisoners, yes, I support that. I am not a fan of Assad. But also all the IS militants who while being free, made a competition, of who can be the most cruel? I am sceptical. And also about where those people will end up. And they are more than a handful.
- jajko 2y ago[flagged]
- skissane 2y ago> Hamas has been killing homosexuals in Palestine by throwing them from buildings long before any form of ISIS existed, plenty of stuff on internet. That's misinformation which has been debunked: https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.347B339 https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.347B339 https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/video-people-thrown-roof-shows-punishment-by-is-not-hamas-2023-12-14/ https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/video-people-thrown-roof-... To quote Wikipedia: > Homosexuality is not a capital offence in the Gaza Strip or elsewhere in Palestine.[54][55] The laws against homosexual behavior in Palestine[d] are a relic of the British and Ottoman rule in Palestine; they specify prison sentences of 10 to 14 years.[54][55] There is no evidence that these British colonial-era laws are actually enforced in Gaza.[54] > Reports of extra-judicial killings of LGBT people in Palestine have circulated, without being confirmed. Sources such as the news agency Reuters, the news outlet The New Arab, and the NGO Human Rights Watch, characterise many of these reports as misinformation: the stories are exaggerated, oversimplified, or misattributions of events that occurred elsewhere.[56] Examples of this include: > Two members of Palestinian nationalist militant groups were accused of espionage and killed by their comrades in situations that included rumours about homosexuality or bisexuality.[57][58] > During the Israel–Hamas war, a video described as "Hamas executes people by throwing them off a roof of a building!" circulated on social media. Some derivatives of the meme claimed the men were executed for being gay.[56] The video, however, was from 2015 and not from Palestine.[56] A July 2015 report from Al Arabiya, included identical images and states that they were originally shared by the so-called Islamic State, and showed the execution of four gay men in Fallujah, Iraq.[56] > In February 2016, the Al-Qassam Brigades (the militant wing of the Hamas movement) executed Mahmoud Ishtiwi, the commander of Al-Qassam's Zeitoun Battalion.[59] The alleged offences were described evasively, the stated reason was Arabic: تجاوزاته السلوكية والأخلاقية التي أقر بها, lit. 'for behavioral and moral violations, to which he confessed',[58] which some western news media interpreted as a euphemism for homosexual activity.[60][61] Local sources clarified that Shteiwi was convicted of spying for Israel.[62] The Qassam Brigades alleged that Ishtiwi had been executed by firing squad,[63][58] but people who saw his body before burial alleged that he might have died in custody and been shot after death.[64][58] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_for_homosexuality#Palestine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_for_homosex...
- selivanovp 2y ago[flagged]
- throwup238 2y agoSednaya wasn’t a regular civilian prison. It was run by the military to house and torture political prisoners and anyone the government considered a “rebel.” Its notoriety long predates the civil war.
- nozzlegear 2y agoJust to be clear, you're talking about prisons like Sednaya, the infamous "Human Slaughterhouse?" The one where Assad imprisoned thousands of political opponents, journalists, military deserters, Muslim minorities and civilians, and then systematically tortured and executed those people? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sednaya_Prison https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sednaya_Prison
- selivanovp 2y agoI do remember the same shit promoted when Gaddafi was toppled. And then Western mass media stopped showing news from "freed" Libya. Because, you know, public executions and human slave markets kinda not something, their population should know about, unless it's done by "bad guys".
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- HideousKojima 2y ago>Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! Overthrowing Gaddafi didn't make Libya a better place. Now it has open air slave markets, amongst other loveliness.
- MoreMoore 2y ago[flagged]
- threeseed 2y agoSlavery was common place during the Gaddafi era as well.
- inglor_cz 2y agoAmerican education tends to concentrate on American history of slavery, so many American are ignorant about just how widespread slavery was/is in the Islamic world and how many Muslims until today consider it a regular institution explicitly endorsed by God. I certainly wouldn't like to be a black manual worker in any Arab country. Even if you aren't a formally legally enslaved person, you will be treated as one.
- jajko 2y agoOr any other place from Asia, ie nepalis or philippinos are treated absolutely horribly in many rich middle east places. That culture, barring exceptional ethical individuals, has nothing in common with modern western values.
- theowss 2y ago[flagged]
- cladopa 2y agoPlease don't use the word "liberal" to refer to something outside the US, because the concept of "liberal" only exist there. This concept of neoMarxist sympathies of educated people(white collar workers) in urban areas and Ivy Leagues, that focus extremely on sex and wokeism, that concept only exist in the US. In Europe "liberal" means he who follows economic liberalism, that is being part of the "right". In Asia and Middle East is even weirder. Iran is probably the place of Earth that had more Empires in its History. Nationalism, ethnic identity and religion is way more important than anything else, specially on Sha's time. If you call communists people you are referring to Chinese land type of communism instead of industrial, very different from Europe or the US one. I had a great time skiing on Iran back on the day.
- jampekka 2y agoAnd then liberals in UK and USA joined hands with Islamists to overthrow the Mossadeq government.
- 7952 2y agoIt is curious that you don't mention the fact that the Sha was in power due to an American/British coup that deposed a democratic government to protect oil interests.
- foooorsyth 2y ago>Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force Questionable statement. Syria has (had) a secular government that allowed Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, Druze Muslims, twelvers, and Kurds to live there. The status quo for the region is theocratic iron fist of a particular Islamic denomination, with all others persecuted. Not to mention, Assad is a Ba’athist (as was Sadam) which by definition is all about Arab unity. Which Sunni warlord group should we hand the country to now? Do you think things will be better? Can you name a single Syrian political figure or interest group (don’t Google!) that you would propose lead the country? Be honest with yourself. >Almost seven million Syrian refugees might have he chance to return home and rebuild now They’re not going back.
- j_maffe 2y ago> a secular government that allowed ... to live there. "live" is a strong word to use there.
- dyauspitr 2y agoSyria wasn’t a particularly shitty place before all this began in 2013.
- j_maffe 2y agoIt was under a repressive dictatorship with crumbling infrastructure. Sure, it can always be worse, but the people deserve and are capable of so much better.
- lukan 2y ago"Sure, it can always be worse" Yes, I would argue the islamic state was indeed worse. And so far I see nothing preventing them or a similar force taking hold again. I mean turkey is the moderating factor here and turkey under Erdogan has gone the authorian islamic way since a while.
- 2y ago
- dyauspitr 2y agoThe vast majority of Syrian refugees are going to try their best to stay in Europe because why would they want to leave to return to devastation and ruin (aside from forced deportation).
- flunhat 2y agoThis might surprise you, but most Syrian refugees didn't go to Europe. Turkey has 3 million, for example.
- inglor_cz 2y agoPlus a lot of people who tried to pass themselves off as Syrians aren't Syrians at all. The asylum claim processing authorities were a bit overwhelmed, but soon learned to ask questions such as "can you tell me in which city you used to live, what was the name of the mayor, what was the closest mosque/church, your address, your school" etc. Few of the fake ones could answer such probing in a satisfying way.
- j_maffe 2y agoMost Syrians I know have unbounded love for their country and their people. You'd be surprised by the number of people who are not motivated purely by financial gain.
- Caius-Cosades 2y ago>Almost seven million Syrian refugees might have the chance to return home and rebuild now. That’s great news. Just because they might have chance to return home and rebuild doesn't mean that they will. Somalis arrived in the 90's, and they never returned back there except for vacations.
- m4rtink 2y agoUm, did Somalia actually get much better since then ?
- decremental 2y ago[dead]
- zdragnar 2y agoWhat indication is there that the forces opposed to Assad will make syria better? Everything I've seen points to Libya all over again. There's not likely to be much to go back to for most of the people who've left.
- polski-g 2y agoThe case for refugees isn't "their country is bad". It is "they are fleeing war". If it was the former case, then approximately 7b people would be valid refugees.
- mmmmmbop 2y agoIsn't there an ongoing civil war in Somalia?
- lossolo 2y agoIt's naive to think that peace and stability will suddenly prevail in Syria. The situation will likely follow the Libya model: total chaos, worse than when Gaddafi ruled. HTS are wolves in sheep's clothing, and they wear this disguise only to convince the world that there is no need to form another anti-terrorist coalition. They learned lessons from the collapse of ISIS. All the organizations that once had a common enemy in Assad will now seek to seize power and begin fighting one another.
- throwup238 2y agoIt’s equally cynical to presume that it won’t. People can only tolerate so much violence and this civil war has been propped up by external powers for over a decade. Regardless, HTS isn’t the group that captured the capital so I don’t know why everyone is so focused on them right now. They got the ball rolling with their November 27 offensive and captured Hama but they’re still restricted to the northern provinces. While on the topic of ISIS, I don’t think it’s the rebels we should be worried about. ISIS would never have become what it was without the former Ba’athist officers from Saddam’s regime building out its command structure and military. It’s the disaffected Ba’athists from Assad’s regime that we should be worried about.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- adamsb6 2y agoSaddam Hussein was a brutal despot who also kept his own country’s factions from waging war on one another. It didn’t turn out well when we took him off the board.
- jampekka 2y agoAnd the same in Libya.
- DiscourseFan 2y agoThe Libyan war is just some bullshit to keep oil prices low, its very close to being a manufactured situation
- jampekka 2y agoSame could be argued about the last 100 years of the region. West doesn't give a shit about these countries as long as they keep selling oil (in dollars). West propped and props up Islamism (and other tyrannies) to prevent nationalisations of oil resources. Seems to be mostly working as intended.
- jpmoral 2y agoWasn't a large part of that caused by the de-Baathification of the government and security forces?
- dralley 2y agoAnd Iranian / Syrian funded militias.
- rswail 2y agoYou might remember that the US royally fucked up the process after taking him off the board. Both Syria and Lebanon have managed, in the past, to work out a way for their various regions and tribal/ethnic groups to co-exist.
- 2y ago