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>Many sociologists attribute the ever-plunging birth rates to Japan’s unforgiving work culture and rising costs of living. It still seems like an incredibly od

>Many sociologists attribute the ever-plunging birth rates to Japan’s unforgiving work culture and rising costs of living. It still seems like an incredibly odd argument to me given that the birth rate is only marginally lower than in the most generous, least working European nations. Hungary spent 5%(!) of its GDP on direct family support and it did very little (raised the birth rate by 0.15 give or take). I wonder when people will just acknowledge that most of the secular decline of 1-2 children is simply down to personal choice, family planning, education and financial freedom. (and adjust economic policies accordingly)

MobiusHorizons 2y ago
> adjust economic policies accordingly What do you have in mind? My understanding is that this is not something there is much of an economic solution for short of canceling benefits (pensions / medical care)
- standardUser 2y ago
  Immigration solves the issue entirely. Maybe not perpetually, but for the foreseeable future.
- Barrin92 2y ago
  Pension reform is unpopular but will need to happen in developed economies at some point or otherwise the youth that remains will completely crash out. One positive of the population pyramid is that the small next generations stand to inherit quite a lot softening it to some extent. But it's necessary. Not enough discussed is also how much potential for labour saving tech there is. The most 20 common jobs almost haven't changed in decades. Retail, transport, clerks, back office, admin, even without magic "AI" solutions, if we wanted to we could design work around drastically cutting labour already. It's actually one benefit of the demographics, a lot of automation isn't happening because manual labour is cheap in a lot of places, so there's potential for growth even.
Aeolun 2y ago
The policies that make schooling and childcare free in Japan are very nice. The problem is that it doesn’t move the needle. At least in Tokyo it’s more or less impossible to not have two working parents and own a house. Outside of Tokyo, you might own a house, but there’s no jobs and everyone around you is 60+

MobiusHorizons 2y ago

> adjust economic policies accordingly What do you have in mind? My understanding is that this is not something there is much of an economic solution for short of canceling benefits (pensions / medical care)

standardUser 2y ago
Immigration solves the issue entirely. Maybe not perpetually, but for the foreseeable future.
Barrin92 2y ago
Pension reform is unpopular but will need to happen in developed economies at some point or otherwise the youth that remains will completely crash out. One positive of the population pyramid is that the small next generations stand to inherit quite a lot softening it to some extent. But it's necessary. Not enough discussed is also how much potential for labour saving tech there is. The most 20 common jobs almost haven't changed in decades. Retail, transport, clerks, back office, admin, even without magic "AI" solutions, if we wanted to we could design work around drastically cutting labour already. It's actually one benefit of the demographics, a lot of automation isn't happening because manual labour is cheap in a lot of places, so there's potential for growth even.

Aeolun 2y ago

The policies that make schooling and childcare free in Japan are very nice. The problem is that it doesn’t move the needle. At least in Tokyo it’s more or less impossible to not have two working parents and own a house. Outside of Tokyo, you might own a house, but there’s no jobs and everyone around you is 60+