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Totally agree. The software development is absolutely a fractal. In 1960s we were solving the complexity by using high level language that compile to machine c

by lxdlam 2y ago

Totally agree. The software development is absolutely a fractal. In 1960s we were solving the complexity by using high level language that compile to machine code to enable more people write simple code. This has happened again and again and again. But different generations face different problems, which requires another level of thinking, abstraction, and push both boundaries until we reach the next generation. All of this is not solved by a single solution, but the combination based on basic principles that never changes, and these things, at least for now, only human can do.

uludag 2y ago
> The software development is absolutely a fractal. I think this analogy is more apt than you may realize. Just like a fractal, the iterated patterns get repeated on a much smaller scale. The jump to higher-level languages was probably a greater leap then the the rest of software innovation will provide. And with each iterative gain we approach some asymptote, but never get there. And this frustration of never reaching our desired outcome results in ever louder hype cycles.
dkrich 2y ago
Interestingly it seems like we are investing many more magnitudes of capital for smaller and smaller gains. For example, the jump in productivity from adding an operating system to a computer is orders of magnitude larger than adding an LLM to a web development process despite the LLM requiring infrastructure that cost tens of billions to create. It seems that while tools are getting more and more sophisticated, they aren’t really resulting in much greater productivity. It all still seems to be resulting in software that solves the same problems as before. Whereas when html came around it opened up use cases that has never been seen before despite being a very simple abstraction layer by today’s standards. Perhaps the opportunities are greatest when you are abstracting the layer that the fewest understand when LLMs seem to assume the opposite.
- mattgreenrocks 2y ago
  The real gains in software are still to be had by aggressively destroying incidental complexity. Most of the gunk in a web app doesn't absolutely need to exist, but we write it anyway. (Look at fasthtml for an alternate vision of building web apps.) The issue with LLMs is they enshrine the status quo. I don't want ossified crappy software that's hard to work with. Frameworks and libraries should have to fight to justify their existence in the marketplace of ideas. Subverting this mechanism is how you ruin software construction.
- immibis 2y ago
  The falling rate of profit...
- js8 2y ago
  My favorite example of this is grep vs method references in IDEs. Method references are more exact, but grep is much simpler (to implement and to understand for the user). I think you're also right about LLMs. I think path forward in programming is embracing more formal tools. Incidentally, search for method references is more formal than grepping - and that's probably why people prefer it.
- lxdlam 2y ago
  You mentioned a great point that LLMs are hitting the edge of a marginal gain decreasing point, at least I think so. Many applications are struggling to provide real benefits instead of just entertaining people. Another funny thing is that we are using LLM to replace creative professionals, but the real creativity is from human experience, perception and our connections, which are exactly missing from LLM.
  - steveBK123 2y ago
    Yes, as I saw someone say - I wanted robots to do my dishes, laundry, and clean up my house so I can spend more time on art. Not a robot to do my art so I can spend more time on dishes, laundry and cleaning.
    - fragmede 2y ago
      Don't worry, those robots are coming! https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0 https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0 Software moves faster than hardware
    - bluGill 2y ago
      As someone is not an artist I want ai to do art so I can restore my antique tractor. Of course we all have diffeent hobbies but there are also hobbies we don't want to get into but may nee.
      - jimbokun 2y ago
        Why? What important problem do you have for which "AI generated art" is the answer? You seriously want to claim you don't already have enough "content" to waste your free time consuming?
        steveBK123 2y ago
        Exactly Content creation is not the problem Content curation is
        2y ago

by lxdlam 2y ago

uludag 2y ago

> The software development is absolutely a fractal. I think this analogy is more apt than you may realize. Just like a fractal, the iterated patterns get repeated on a much smaller scale. The jump to higher-level languages was probably a greater leap then the the rest of software innovation will provide. And with each iterative gain we approach some asymptote, but never get there. And this frustration of never reaching our desired outcome results in ever louder hype cycles.

dkrich 2y ago

Interestingly it seems like we are investing many more magnitudes of capital for smaller and smaller gains. For example, the jump in productivity from adding an operating system to a computer is orders of magnitude larger than adding an LLM to a web development process despite the LLM requiring infrastructure that cost tens of billions to create. It seems that while tools are getting more and more sophisticated, they aren’t really resulting in much greater productivity. It all still seems to be resulting in software that solves the same problems as before. Whereas when html came around it opened up use cases that has never been seen before despite being a very simple abstraction layer by today’s standards. Perhaps the opportunities are greatest when you are abstracting the layer that the fewest understand when LLMs seem to assume the opposite.

mattgreenrocks 2y ago
The real gains in software are still to be had by aggressively destroying incidental complexity. Most of the gunk in a web app doesn't absolutely need to exist, but we write it anyway. (Look at fasthtml for an alternate vision of building web apps.) The issue with LLMs is they enshrine the status quo. I don't want ossified crappy software that's hard to work with. Frameworks and libraries should have to fight to justify their existence in the marketplace of ideas. Subverting this mechanism is how you ruin software construction.
immibis 2y ago
The falling rate of profit...
js8 2y ago
My favorite example of this is grep vs method references in IDEs. Method references are more exact, but grep is much simpler (to implement and to understand for the user). I think you're also right about LLMs. I think path forward in programming is embracing more formal tools. Incidentally, search for method references is more formal than grepping - and that's probably why people prefer it.
lxdlam 2y ago
You mentioned a great point that LLMs are hitting the edge of a marginal gain decreasing point, at least I think so. Many applications are struggling to provide real benefits instead of just entertaining people. Another funny thing is that we are using LLM to replace creative professionals, but the real creativity is from human experience, perception and our connections, which are exactly missing from LLM.
- steveBK123 2y ago
  Yes, as I saw someone say - I wanted robots to do my dishes, laundry, and clean up my house so I can spend more time on art. Not a robot to do my art so I can spend more time on dishes, laundry and cleaning.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    Don't worry, those robots are coming! https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0 https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0 Software moves faster than hardware
  - bluGill 2y ago
    As someone is not an artist I want ai to do art so I can restore my antique tractor. Of course we all have diffeent hobbies but there are also hobbies we don't want to get into but may nee.
    - jimbokun 2y ago
      Why? What important problem do you have for which "AI generated art" is the answer? You seriously want to claim you don't already have enough "content" to waste your free time consuming?
      - steveBK123 2y ago
        Exactly Content creation is not the problem Content curation is
      - 2y ago