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I do wonder what effect this will have on furthering the divide between the "rich West" and the rest of the world. If everyone in the West has powerful AI and

I do wonder what effect this will have on furthering the divide between the "rich West" and the rest of the world. If everyone in the West has powerful AI and Agents to automate everything. Simply because we can afford it, but the rest of the world doesn't have access to it. What will that mean for everyone left behind?

turing_complete 2y ago
Richer people always get products first, when they are still expensive and bad. Don't worry about too much.
mhh__ 2y ago
I actually suspect the opposite. If you get access to or steal a large LLM you can potentially massively leverage the talent pool you have as a small country.
uludag 2y ago
Has it really made that much of a difference in the first place? I have a feeling that we'll look back in 10 years and not even notice the "AI revolution" on any charts of productivity, creating a productivity paradox 3.0. I can imagine the headlines now: "AI promised unlimited productivity, 10 years later, we're still waiting for the rapture"
Sateeshm 2y ago
No one is left behind, eventually. You think the ai companies don't want poor people's money?
tokioyoyo 2y ago
Qwen has an open reasoning model. If they keep up, and don’t get banned in the west “because security”, it’ll be fun to watch the LLM wars.
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  > and don’t get banned in the west “because security”, It's from Alibaba, which is Chinese, so it seems likely.
  - wkat4242 2y ago
    If it's an open model, good luck preventing us from downloading and using it though.
  - tokioyoyo 2y ago
    Yeah, but it’s a bit trickier with them, given how they still operate in US and listed in NYSE. Also if they keep releasing open source code, people will still just use it… basically the Meta way of adoption into their AI ecosystem.
frakt0x90 2y ago
Ai is no where near the level of leaving behind those that aren't using it. Especially not at the individual consumer level like this.
- MarcScott 2y ago
  Anecdotally, as an educator, I am already seeing a digital divide occurring, with regard to accessing AI. This is not even at a premium/pro subscription level, but simply at a 'who has access to a device at home or work' level, and who is keeping up with the emerging tech. I speak to kids that use LLMs all the time to assist them with their school work, and others who simply have no knowledge that this tech exists. I work with UK learners by the way.
  - charlieyu1 2y ago
    It has been bad for not having access to a device for at least 20 years. I can’t imagine anyone doing well in their studies with a search engine.
  - jumping_frog 2y ago
    The anology I would use is extended phenotype evolution in digital space as Richard Dawkins would say. Just as crabs in oceans use shells to protect themselves.
  - bronco21016 2y ago
    What are some productive ways students are using LLMs for aiding learning? Obviously there is the “write this paper for me” but that’s not productive. Are students genuinely doing stuff like “2 + x = 4, help me understand how to solve for x?”
    - Spooky23 2y ago
      Absolutely. My son got a 6th grade AI “ban” lifted by showing how they could use it productively. Basically they had to adapt a novel to a comic book form — by using AI to generate pencil drawings, they achieved the goal of the assignment (demonstrating understanding of the story) without having the computer just do their homework.
solarwindy 2y ago
That supposes gen AI meaningfully increases productivity. Perhaps this is one way we find out.
anoojb 2y ago
I think the tech-elite would espouse "raising the ceiling" vs "raising the floor" models to prioritize progress. Each has it's own problems. The reality is that the dienfranchised don't really have a voice. The impact of not involving them with access is not well understood as much as the impact of prioritizing access to those who can afford it is. We don't have a post-cold war era response akin to the kind of US led investment in a global pact to provide protection, security, and access to innovation founded in the United States. We really need to prioritize a model akin to the Bretton Woods Accord
danans 2y ago
If $200 a month is the price, most of the West will be left behind also. If that happens we will have much bigger problems of a revolution sort on our hands.
vundercind 2y ago
I’m watching some of this happening first and second hand, and have seen a lot of evidence of companies spending a ton of money on these, spinning up departments, buying companies, pivoting their entire company’s strategy to AI, et c, and zero of its meaningfully replacing employees. It takes very skilled people to use LLMs well, and the companies trying to turn 5 positions into 2 aren’t paying enough to reliably get and keep two people who are good at it. I’ve seen it be a minor productivity boost, and not much more.
- hnthrowaway6543 2y ago
  > and the companies trying to turn 5 positions into 2 aren’t paying enough to reliably get and keep two people who are good at it. it's turning 5 positions into 7: 5 people to do what currently needs to get done, 2 to try to replace those 5 with AI and failing for several years.
  - vundercind 2y ago
    I mean, yes, that is in practice what I’m seeing so far. A lot of spending, and if they’re lucky productivity doesn’t drop. Best case I’ve seen so far is that it’s a useful tool that gives a small boost, but even for that a lot of folks are so bad at using them that it’s not helping. The situation now is kinda like back when it was possible to be “good at Google” and lots of people, including in tech, weren’t. It’s possible to be good at LLMs, and not a lot of people are.
- Vegenoid 2y ago
  Yes. The people who can use these tools to dramatically increase their capabilities and output without a significant drop in quality were already great engineers for which there was more demand than supply. That isn't going to change soon.
  - vundercind 2y ago
    Ditto for other use cases, like writer and editor. There are a ton of people doing that work whom I don’t think are ever going to figure out how to use LLMs well. Like, 90% of them. And LLMs are nowhere near making the rest so much better that they can make up for that. They’re ok for Tom the Section Manager to hack together a department newsletter nobody reads, though, even if Tom is bad at using LLMs. They’re decent at things that don’t need to be any good because they didn’t need to exist in the first place, lol.
lenerdenator 2y ago
Don't you worry; the "rich West" will have plenty of disenfranchised people out of work because of this sort of thing. Now, whether the labor provided by the AI will be as high-quality as that provided by a human when placed in an actual business environment will be up in the air. Probably not, but adoption will be pushed by the sunk cost fallacy.
- astrange 2y ago
  Productivity improvements (such as automation) increase employment. The decreased employment case is when your competitors get the productivity and you don't, because you go out of business.
notahacker 2y ago
tbh a lot of the rest of the world already has the ability to get tasks they don't want to do done for <$200 per month in the form of low wage humans. Some of their middle classes might be scratching their heads wondering why we've delegating creativity and communication to allow more time to do laundry rather than delegating laundry to allow more time for creativity and communication...
archagon 2y ago
If the models are open, the rest of the world will run them locally. If the models are closed, the West will become a digital serfdom to anointed AI corporations, which will be able to gouge prices, inject ads, and influence politics with ease.
shadowmanif 2y ago
Kai-Fu Lee's AI Superpowers is more relevant than ever. The rich west will be in the lead for awhile and then get tiktok-ed. The lead is just not really worth that much in the long run. There is probably an advantage gained at some point in all this of being a developing country too that doesn't need to bother automating all these middle management and bullshit jobs they don't have.
- troll_v_bridge 2y ago
  No US company got TikTok’d, and China doesn’t even allow US social media companies in its country. China is notoriously middle management heavy, by definition that’s what communism is.

turing_complete 2y ago

Richer people always get products first, when they are still expensive and bad. Don't worry about too much.

mhh__ 2y ago

I actually suspect the opposite. If you get access to or steal a large LLM you can potentially massively leverage the talent pool you have as a small country.

uludag 2y ago

Has it really made that much of a difference in the first place? I have a feeling that we'll look back in 10 years and not even notice the "AI revolution" on any charts of productivity, creating a productivity paradox 3.0. I can imagine the headlines now: "AI promised unlimited productivity, 10 years later, we're still waiting for the rapture"

Sateeshm 2y ago

No one is left behind, eventually. You think the ai companies don't want poor people's money?

tokioyoyo 2y ago

Qwen has an open reasoning model. If they keep up, and don’t get banned in the west “because security”, it’ll be fun to watch the LLM wars.

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
> and don’t get banned in the west “because security”, It's from Alibaba, which is Chinese, so it seems likely.
- wkat4242 2y ago
  If it's an open model, good luck preventing us from downloading and using it though.
- tokioyoyo 2y ago
  Yeah, but it’s a bit trickier with them, given how they still operate in US and listed in NYSE. Also if they keep releasing open source code, people will still just use it… basically the Meta way of adoption into their AI ecosystem.

frakt0x90 2y ago

Ai is no where near the level of leaving behind those that aren't using it. Especially not at the individual consumer level like this.

MarcScott 2y ago
Anecdotally, as an educator, I am already seeing a digital divide occurring, with regard to accessing AI. This is not even at a premium/pro subscription level, but simply at a 'who has access to a device at home or work' level, and who is keeping up with the emerging tech. I speak to kids that use LLMs all the time to assist them with their school work, and others who simply have no knowledge that this tech exists. I work with UK learners by the way.
- charlieyu1 2y ago
  It has been bad for not having access to a device for at least 20 years. I can’t imagine anyone doing well in their studies with a search engine.
- jumping_frog 2y ago
  The anology I would use is extended phenotype evolution in digital space as Richard Dawkins would say. Just as crabs in oceans use shells to protect themselves.
- bronco21016 2y ago
  What are some productive ways students are using LLMs for aiding learning? Obviously there is the “write this paper for me” but that’s not productive. Are students genuinely doing stuff like “2 + x = 4, help me understand how to solve for x?”
  - Spooky23 2y ago
    Absolutely. My son got a 6th grade AI “ban” lifted by showing how they could use it productively. Basically they had to adapt a novel to a comic book form — by using AI to generate pencil drawings, they achieved the goal of the assignment (demonstrating understanding of the story) without having the computer just do their homework.

solarwindy 2y ago

That supposes gen AI meaningfully increases productivity. Perhaps this is one way we find out.

anoojb 2y ago

I think the tech-elite would espouse "raising the ceiling" vs "raising the floor" models to prioritize progress. Each has it's own problems. The reality is that the dienfranchised don't really have a voice. The impact of not involving them with access is not well understood as much as the impact of prioritizing access to those who can afford it is. We don't have a post-cold war era response akin to the kind of US led investment in a global pact to provide protection, security, and access to innovation founded in the United States. We really need to prioritize a model akin to the Bretton Woods Accord

danans 2y ago

If $200 a month is the price, most of the West will be left behind also. If that happens we will have much bigger problems of a revolution sort on our hands.

vundercind 2y ago

I’m watching some of this happening first and second hand, and have seen a lot of evidence of companies spending a ton of money on these, spinning up departments, buying companies, pivoting their entire company’s strategy to AI, et c, and zero of its meaningfully replacing employees. It takes very skilled people to use LLMs well, and the companies trying to turn 5 positions into 2 aren’t paying enough to reliably get and keep two people who are good at it. I’ve seen it be a minor productivity boost, and not much more.

hnthrowaway6543 2y ago
> and the companies trying to turn 5 positions into 2 aren’t paying enough to reliably get and keep two people who are good at it. it's turning 5 positions into 7: 5 people to do what currently needs to get done, 2 to try to replace those 5 with AI and failing for several years.
- vundercind 2y ago
  I mean, yes, that is in practice what I’m seeing so far. A lot of spending, and if they’re lucky productivity doesn’t drop. Best case I’ve seen so far is that it’s a useful tool that gives a small boost, but even for that a lot of folks are so bad at using them that it’s not helping. The situation now is kinda like back when it was possible to be “good at Google” and lots of people, including in tech, weren’t. It’s possible to be good at LLMs, and not a lot of people are.
Vegenoid 2y ago
Yes. The people who can use these tools to dramatically increase their capabilities and output without a significant drop in quality were already great engineers for which there was more demand than supply. That isn't going to change soon.
- vundercind 2y ago
  Ditto for other use cases, like writer and editor. There are a ton of people doing that work whom I don’t think are ever going to figure out how to use LLMs well. Like, 90% of them. And LLMs are nowhere near making the rest so much better that they can make up for that. They’re ok for Tom the Section Manager to hack together a department newsletter nobody reads, though, even if Tom is bad at using LLMs. They’re decent at things that don’t need to be any good because they didn’t need to exist in the first place, lol.

lenerdenator 2y ago

Don't you worry; the "rich West" will have plenty of disenfranchised people out of work because of this sort of thing. Now, whether the labor provided by the AI will be as high-quality as that provided by a human when placed in an actual business environment will be up in the air. Probably not, but adoption will be pushed by the sunk cost fallacy.

astrange 2y ago
Productivity improvements (such as automation) increase employment. The decreased employment case is when your competitors get the productivity and you don't, because you go out of business.

notahacker 2y ago

tbh a lot of the rest of the world already has the ability to get tasks they don't want to do done for <$200 per month in the form of low wage humans. Some of their middle classes might be scratching their heads wondering why we've delegating creativity and communication to allow more time to do laundry rather than delegating laundry to allow more time for creativity and communication...

archagon 2y ago

If the models are open, the rest of the world will run them locally. If the models are closed, the West will become a digital serfdom to anointed AI corporations, which will be able to gouge prices, inject ads, and influence politics with ease.

shadowmanif 2y ago

Kai-Fu Lee's AI Superpowers is more relevant than ever. The rich west will be in the lead for awhile and then get tiktok-ed. The lead is just not really worth that much in the long run. There is probably an advantage gained at some point in all this of being a developing country too that doesn't need to bother automating all these middle management and bullshit jobs they don't have.

troll_v_bridge 2y ago
No US company got TikTok’d, and China doesn’t even allow US social media companies in its country. China is notoriously middle management heavy, by definition that’s what communism is.