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Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicl

Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles. I don’t know how Waymo can possibly compete with that. Their deployment by city is slow, their hardware is expensive, slown to produce, and not purpose built for self driving.

oblio 2y ago
> Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles. Don't fall for the hype.
- fixprix 2y ago
  This is fundamental. Waymo doesn’t make cars. They can’t scale like Tesla can. Waymo vehicles are way more expensive and not optimized at all for FSD, it’s all bolt on. If nothing changes, when CyberCab comes around Waymo will be screwed.
  - oblio 2y ago
    It's not fundamental. We know how to make cars. Other companies are also adding sensors to their existing cars. Waymo is partnering with existing car companies and those have a lot more production capacity than Tesla. I had also hoped you Teslabros would chill with the Tesla hype when Model 3 was supposed to cost 35k but the cheapest model is about 45k, the cheapest Cybertruck was supposed to also be about 35k but instead it's about 100k, the Semi isn't doing much, the Roadster is still vaporware, FSD is nowhere near FSD...
    - fixprix 2y ago
      Again, Waymo sensors are expensive. Waymo cars are also expensive, 4 seaters with lots of other parts included for manual driving. Unless Waymo is working to design their own car for self driving they’re not going to be able to compete with a much cheaper self driving vehicle. Tesla will flood the market. Also ‘partnering’ you think legacy auto is going to let a middle man like Waymo ‘use’ their cars once self driving taxi services are here. They will cut out Waymo middle man fast. People will be buying subscriptions to Honda and Ford taxi services, not Waymo. I think you forgot to factor in 10 years of inflation into your prices. A factory for Semi is being built in Nevada as we speak. And FSD is incredibly good, it can drive today in far more places than a Waymo can. Personally it drives me 90% of the time, and the next update with auto parking support it’ll be up to 99%.
      - oblio 2y ago
        A car with no steering wheel, such as the Cybertaxi, is a very far cry from the current FSD. I don't want to die or kill others with a car. We'll see.
tomp 2y ago
The bigger question is, how can Tesla with it's non-working "full self driving" compete with Waymo's working actual self-driving.
- asdff 2y ago
  I’ve seen teslas full self driving drive me on surface roads, on the highway, and even navigate the lot, find parking, and park the car. In what way is it non working at this point? Waymo doesn’t even do highway.
  - ra7 2y ago
    > In what way is it non working at this point? Because you're in the driver's seat supervising at all times? If it worked fully autonomously, you would be in the backseat.
    - asdff 2y ago
      It does work fully autonomously. The fact that you are "supervising it" is a lie to regulators. No one has the reaction time to take the wheel and get in control of the car in the event of a situation where the autopilot fails. people don't even have the reaction time to do that when they are already in control of a car and something unfolds in front of them.
  - RivieraKid 2y ago
    But not with a sufficient reliability and safety. You need that to do what Waymo does. Waymo could do highways 15 years ago, right now they use highways in autonomous mode but only with employees or empty, so they will presumably launch soon. Imagine 2 drivers, one does something dangerous every hour, the other every 1000 hours. If you observe them for one hour, they may appear identical to you. Yet, one is 1000x better.
  - danans 2y ago
    > I’ve seen teslas full self driving drive me ... > In what way is it non working at this point? It's killing people: https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/18/24273418/nhtsa-tesla-full-self-driving-investigation-crashes https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/18/24273418/nhtsa-tesla-ful...
Charlie_Black 2y ago
Do you believe Musk's timeline estimates?
- fixprix 2y ago
  I don’t even know what the timeline is, but you see it coming fast plain as day. Both CyberCab and FSD are very far along. I’d say 2 years to build that factory and initial production line. With half the part count, they’re going to be pumping these out fast.
threeseed 2y ago
Waymo doesn't make the cars. Geely does. And they make the same number of cars each year that Tesla does. Also deployment by city exists because each state will have different regulations.
- fixprix 2y ago
  The problem is the vehicles are expensive, it doesn’t scale. CyberCab is designed for mass mass production. If you need a clue, look at CyberTruck already out producing both Rivian and Lightning in less than a year.
sixQuarks 2y ago
You are exactly right. Look at how you’re getting downvoted. It’s so disappointing that this so-called tech community is so deranged because of their hatred of Musk so much that they’re not willing to look at the facts. If it was any other company doing what Tesla is doing with their self driving, the comments here would be completely different.
- Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
  > they’re not willing to look at the facts. Quite the opposite. The facts are that Elon Musk is notorious for overselling and missing deadlines. RoboTaxi has supposed to have come out how long ago? How much did Cybertruck get delayed? Roadster was supposed to be out 4 years ago, and there's now basically not a peep about it. Elon has taken who knows how much money from people for reservations, and 4 years later they've got nothing to show for it. I would bet my life savings that we will not see RoboTaxi or CyberCab by the end of 2026.
  - sixQuarks 2y ago
    Ok let’s bet then. Easy money
  - fixprix 2y ago
    So Waymo has 2 years left before the fun starts. Unless Waymo can build and design their own car in that time, they are screwed. CyberCab is way cheaper and can be built at a much faster rate.
- fixprix 2y ago
  Meh they got Bitcoin wrong as well and after 15 years still think it’s a scam.
  - sixQuarks 2y ago
    Very true, the only reason I didn’t buy bitcoin at $1 was because of hackernews comments, I thought these people were smart about technology. Thankfully I got my bearings right and bought at $250 and still holding. HN commenters are notorious for being wrong, almost every successful unicorn, if you go look at the early comments about them, HN top comment is usually dead wrong about them
seanmcdirmid 2y ago
I don't see a taxi service from Tesla yet, while I've rode in a waymo in SF, so it is hard for me to see how Tesla is winning in the auto-taxi segment yet. Maybe their bet pays off and they dominate, or maybe waymo keeps expanding while Tesla keeps talking about vaporware, who knows?
- fixprix 2y ago
  Relative to Tesla Waymo cannot scale. Waymo vehicles are more expensive, plus the bolted on technology is expensive. Waymo can’t scale up production like Tesla. There is literally no way for them to compete. The field is tilted towards Tesla in every direction.
rurp 2y ago
Sure, right, it should be operational by 2017 at the latest, according to the Tesla CEO.
- fixprix 2y ago
  Get ready. You guys didn’t think CyberTruck would happen, but now it’s already out producing Rivian and Lightning. I can’t tell you when it will happen, just that it will happen and when it does Waymo is screwed.

oblio 2y ago

> Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles. Don't fall for the hype.

fixprix 2y ago
This is fundamental. Waymo doesn’t make cars. They can’t scale like Tesla can. Waymo vehicles are way more expensive and not optimized at all for FSD, it’s all bolt on. If nothing changes, when CyberCab comes around Waymo will be screwed.
- oblio 2y ago
  It's not fundamental. We know how to make cars. Other companies are also adding sensors to their existing cars. Waymo is partnering with existing car companies and those have a lot more production capacity than Tesla. I had also hoped you Teslabros would chill with the Tesla hype when Model 3 was supposed to cost 35k but the cheapest model is about 45k, the cheapest Cybertruck was supposed to also be about 35k but instead it's about 100k, the Semi isn't doing much, the Roadster is still vaporware, FSD is nowhere near FSD...
  - fixprix 2y ago
    Again, Waymo sensors are expensive. Waymo cars are also expensive, 4 seaters with lots of other parts included for manual driving. Unless Waymo is working to design their own car for self driving they’re not going to be able to compete with a much cheaper self driving vehicle. Tesla will flood the market. Also ‘partnering’ you think legacy auto is going to let a middle man like Waymo ‘use’ their cars once self driving taxi services are here. They will cut out Waymo middle man fast. People will be buying subscriptions to Honda and Ford taxi services, not Waymo. I think you forgot to factor in 10 years of inflation into your prices. A factory for Semi is being built in Nevada as we speak. And FSD is incredibly good, it can drive today in far more places than a Waymo can. Personally it drives me 90% of the time, and the next update with auto parking support it’ll be up to 99%.
    - oblio 2y ago
      A car with no steering wheel, such as the Cybertaxi, is a very far cry from the current FSD. I don't want to die or kill others with a car. We'll see.

tomp 2y ago

The bigger question is, how can Tesla with it's non-working "full self driving" compete with Waymo's working actual self-driving.

asdff 2y ago
I’ve seen teslas full self driving drive me on surface roads, on the highway, and even navigate the lot, find parking, and park the car. In what way is it non working at this point? Waymo doesn’t even do highway.
- ra7 2y ago
  > In what way is it non working at this point? Because you're in the driver's seat supervising at all times? If it worked fully autonomously, you would be in the backseat.
  - asdff 2y ago
    It does work fully autonomously. The fact that you are "supervising it" is a lie to regulators. No one has the reaction time to take the wheel and get in control of the car in the event of a situation where the autopilot fails. people don't even have the reaction time to do that when they are already in control of a car and something unfolds in front of them.
- RivieraKid 2y ago
  But not with a sufficient reliability and safety. You need that to do what Waymo does. Waymo could do highways 15 years ago, right now they use highways in autonomous mode but only with employees or empty, so they will presumably launch soon. Imagine 2 drivers, one does something dangerous every hour, the other every 1000 hours. If you observe them for one hour, they may appear identical to you. Yet, one is 1000x better.
- danans 2y ago
  > I’ve seen teslas full self driving drive me ... > In what way is it non working at this point? It's killing people: https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/18/24273418/nhtsa-tesla-full-self-driving-investigation-crashes https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/18/24273418/nhtsa-tesla-ful...

Charlie_Black 2y ago

Do you believe Musk's timeline estimates?

fixprix 2y ago
I don’t even know what the timeline is, but you see it coming fast plain as day. Both CyberCab and FSD are very far along. I’d say 2 years to build that factory and initial production line. With half the part count, they’re going to be pumping these out fast.

threeseed 2y ago

Waymo doesn't make the cars. Geely does. And they make the same number of cars each year that Tesla does. Also deployment by city exists because each state will have different regulations.

fixprix 2y ago
The problem is the vehicles are expensive, it doesn’t scale. CyberCab is designed for mass mass production. If you need a clue, look at CyberTruck already out producing both Rivian and Lightning in less than a year.

sixQuarks 2y ago

You are exactly right. Look at how you’re getting downvoted. It’s so disappointing that this so-called tech community is so deranged because of their hatred of Musk so much that they’re not willing to look at the facts. If it was any other company doing what Tesla is doing with their self driving, the comments here would be completely different.

Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
> they’re not willing to look at the facts. Quite the opposite. The facts are that Elon Musk is notorious for overselling and missing deadlines. RoboTaxi has supposed to have come out how long ago? How much did Cybertruck get delayed? Roadster was supposed to be out 4 years ago, and there's now basically not a peep about it. Elon has taken who knows how much money from people for reservations, and 4 years later they've got nothing to show for it. I would bet my life savings that we will not see RoboTaxi or CyberCab by the end of 2026.
- sixQuarks 2y ago
  Ok let’s bet then. Easy money
- fixprix 2y ago
  So Waymo has 2 years left before the fun starts. Unless Waymo can build and design their own car in that time, they are screwed. CyberCab is way cheaper and can be built at a much faster rate.
fixprix 2y ago
Meh they got Bitcoin wrong as well and after 15 years still think it’s a scam.
- sixQuarks 2y ago
  Very true, the only reason I didn’t buy bitcoin at $1 was because of hackernews comments, I thought these people were smart about technology. Thankfully I got my bearings right and bought at $250 and still holding. HN commenters are notorious for being wrong, almost every successful unicorn, if you go look at the early comments about them, HN top comment is usually dead wrong about them

seanmcdirmid 2y ago

I don't see a taxi service from Tesla yet, while I've rode in a waymo in SF, so it is hard for me to see how Tesla is winning in the auto-taxi segment yet. Maybe their bet pays off and they dominate, or maybe waymo keeps expanding while Tesla keeps talking about vaporware, who knows?

fixprix 2y ago
Relative to Tesla Waymo cannot scale. Waymo vehicles are more expensive, plus the bolted on technology is expensive. Waymo can’t scale up production like Tesla. There is literally no way for them to compete. The field is tilted towards Tesla in every direction.

rurp 2y ago

Sure, right, it should be operational by 2017 at the latest, according to the Tesla CEO.

fixprix 2y ago
Get ready. You guys didn’t think CyberTruck would happen, but now it’s already out producing Rivian and Lightning. I can’t tell you when it will happen, just that it will happen and when it does Waymo is screwed.