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>Also, when I ran the numbers some time ago, I figured a realistic max value for 1 BTC would be 500k-1M In what units? What makes you think there won't be Arge

by cft 2y ago

>Also, when I ran the numbers some time ago, I figured a realistic max value for 1 BTC would be 500k-1M In what units? What makes you think there won't be Argentina-style inflation of the USD?

unyttigfjelltol 2y ago
What makes you think BTC is an inflation hedge? BTC did not hedge the inflation event in 2022.
- zadler 2y ago
  There’s still room for it to become an inflation hedge, we still havnt really seen much in terms of USD inflation and people scrambling for the exit. OTOH, government crackdowns might be able to tank the price.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    the bet is that the incoming regime won't crackdown and may go do the opposite
  - throw0101d 2y ago
    > There’s still room for it to become an inflation hedge, we still havnt really seen much in terms of USD inflation and people scrambling for the exit. Bitcoin is no more an inflation hedge than gold is, which it is not: * https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706 https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706 * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3667789 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3667789 and both are something worse, deflationary: * https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/financial-markets-and-financial-crises/gold-standard-deflation-and-financial-crisis-great-depression-international-comparison https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/financial-markets-an... * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters Gold did not help in stabilizing currencies or economies: * https://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/08/why-the-gold-standard-is-the-worlds-worst-economic-idea-in-2-charts/261552/ https://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/arch... and neither would Bitcoin.
TrackerFF 2y ago
My rationale is the following: 1) A very high (BTC/USD) rate will come from HUGE whales hoarding BTC. Like governments creating crypto reserves, and purchasing BTC in the magnitude of tens of thousands to low million (US have talked about purchasing a million). 2) BTC will never be a currency that is used for huge worldwide transactions, for things commodities like oil, gas, etc. No serious country will give up control of their currency like that, especially not US that will literally go to war if things aren’t purchased in the Uas dollar 3) Likewise, countries will not adapt BTC as their currency, if they cannot control the supply 100% 4) If BTC becomes too competitive, it will be fairly easy to regulate it into being too unattractive. Those are my macro views. I think it will continue to be some asset that competes against silver, gold, etc.
- vasco 2y ago
  Where's the numbers, you said you did the math?
- cft 2y ago
  There might be smarter elected officials in the future that facing two choices: USD losing the world's reserve currency status and: 1. Yuan becomes the reserve currency 2. BTC becomes the reserve currency they would understand that choice 2 is preferrable for the West
  - FollowingTheDao 2y ago
    BTC is not a currency however. The Yaun is a currency because it is controlled by a government. BTC is controlled by no one. It is just like gold, but worse because it has no intrinsic value. There is a reason the US and other governments went off of the gold standard, and that is so we could control the price of our currency, which is what led to te mess we are in now. If BTC were controlled by the government it would be no different than the dollar when we were on the gold standard, and that it why it will never be a currency.
  - throw0101d 2y ago
    > 1. Yuan becomes the reserve currency Who trusts China enough to sign on board with them to do this? > 2. BTC becomes the reserve currency Given what we know of history, why would anyone go towards a new (digital) gold standard? It's a bad system: * https://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/08/why-the-gold-standard-is-the-worlds-worst-economic-idea-in-2-charts/261552/ https://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/arch... * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters that limits monetary and fiscal flexibility and helped usher in and prolong the Great Depression.

by cft 2y ago

>Also, when I ran the numbers some time ago, I figured a realistic max value for 1 BTC would be 500k-1M In what units? What makes you think there won't be Argentina-style inflation of the USD?

unyttigfjelltol 2y ago

What makes you think BTC is an inflation hedge? BTC did not hedge the inflation event in 2022.

zadler 2y ago
There’s still room for it to become an inflation hedge, we still havnt really seen much in terms of USD inflation and people scrambling for the exit. OTOH, government crackdowns might be able to tank the price.
- fragmede 2y ago
  the bet is that the incoming regime won't crackdown and may go do the opposite
- throw0101d 2y ago
  > There’s still room for it to become an inflation hedge, we still havnt really seen much in terms of USD inflation and people scrambling for the exit. Bitcoin is no more an inflation hedge than gold is, which it is not: * https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706 https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706 * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3667789 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3667789 and both are something worse, deflationary: * https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/financial-markets-and-financial-crises/gold-standard-deflation-and-financial-crisis-great-depression-international-comparison https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/financial-markets-an... * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters Gold did not help in stabilizing currencies or economies: * https://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/08/why-the-gold-standard-is-the-worlds-worst-economic-idea-in-2-charts/261552/ https://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/arch... and neither would Bitcoin.

TrackerFF 2y ago

My rationale is the following: 1) A very high (BTC/USD) rate will come from HUGE whales hoarding BTC. Like governments creating crypto reserves, and purchasing BTC in the magnitude of tens of thousands to low million (US have talked about purchasing a million). 2) BTC will never be a currency that is used for huge worldwide transactions, for things commodities like oil, gas, etc. No serious country will give up control of their currency like that, especially not US that will literally go to war if things aren’t purchased in the Uas dollar 3) Likewise, countries will not adapt BTC as their currency, if they cannot control the supply 100% 4) If BTC becomes too competitive, it will be fairly easy to regulate it into being too unattractive. Those are my macro views. I think it will continue to be some asset that competes against silver, gold, etc.

vasco 2y ago
Where's the numbers, you said you did the math?
cft 2y ago
There might be smarter elected officials in the future that facing two choices: USD losing the world's reserve currency status and: 1. Yuan becomes the reserve currency 2. BTC becomes the reserve currency they would understand that choice 2 is preferrable for the West
- FollowingTheDao 2y ago
  BTC is not a currency however. The Yaun is a currency because it is controlled by a government. BTC is controlled by no one. It is just like gold, but worse because it has no intrinsic value. There is a reason the US and other governments went off of the gold standard, and that is so we could control the price of our currency, which is what led to te mess we are in now. If BTC were controlled by the government it would be no different than the dollar when we were on the gold standard, and that it why it will never be a currency.
- throw0101d 2y ago
  > 1. Yuan becomes the reserve currency Who trusts China enough to sign on board with them to do this? > 2. BTC becomes the reserve currency Given what we know of history, why would anyone go towards a new (digital) gold standard? It's a bad system: * https://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/08/why-the-gold-standard-is-the-worlds-worst-economic-idea-in-2-charts/261552/ https://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/arch... * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters that limits monetary and fiscal flexibility and helped usher in and prolong the Great Depression.