3 ms·

More technology driven hyper-deflation on the way. The future: high inflation in food, energy, fuel, and consumables, hyper-deflation in everything else except

by api 14y ago

More technology driven hyper-deflation on the way. The future: high inflation in food, energy, fuel, and consumables, hyper-deflation in everything else except to the extent that it depends on or consumes the former.

GFKjunior 14y ago
Solid analysis, the only other online community I frequent is zerohedge and they have been calling it biflation for some time now. Things like housing, equity, and bond prices will deflate while commodity prices will continue to inflate.
- Codhisattva 14y ago
  The act of predicting the future alters the future. Especially true with economics.
themgt 14y ago
Except to the extent that stuff like this cannibalizes existing resource use (e.g. all the people driving an SUV to the shopping mall who instead buy with one-click), and to the extent technology & automation end food/energy/resource scarcity as well (which is underway, but hard to tell timeframes)
tokenadult 14y ago
The future: high inflation in food, energy, fuel, and consumables, hyper-deflation in everything else except to the extent that it depends on or consumes the former. The reply below your reply that says "The act of predicting the future alters the future" indeed expresses a truth about economics. But as a person who once predicted the future, by writing down my predictions and putting them (with classmates' predictions) in a time capsule that was opened thirty-one years later, I'd like to explore this process of predicting the future a bit more. What exactly do you mean by "high inflation in food, energy, fuel, and consumables." Do you mean that in the developed world it will take more units of time at typical paid work to buy a meal or light up a room in 2050 than it does in 2012? That suggests a bet, a bet on which I would be willing to take the side contrary to your side. (I think so, as soon as I figure out if that is really what you are predicting.) What is included in the category "consumables," and what is not? What is your definition of "hyperdeflation"? Does that basically mean that you or I or anyone else in the developed world will be able to obtain more and more of that "everything else" (WHAT everything else?) for fewer and fewer units of time spent in paid work? What kinds of goods or services do you have in mind here?
mindslight 14y ago
What else could you expect when the explicit goal of monetary policy is to fight natural deflation? (how does any upstart win in a competitive market? doing better things cheaper). The costs of manufacturing and services are dropping the quickest, so feedback-driven monetary inflation causes the price of raw resources to skyrocket.

by api 14y ago

GFKjunior 14y ago

Solid analysis, the only other online community I frequent is zerohedge and they have been calling it biflation for some time now. Things like housing, equity, and bond prices will deflate while commodity prices will continue to inflate.

Codhisattva 14y ago
The act of predicting the future alters the future. Especially true with economics.

themgt 14y ago

Except to the extent that stuff like this cannibalizes existing resource use (e.g. all the people driving an SUV to the shopping mall who instead buy with one-click), and to the extent technology & automation end food/energy/resource scarcity as well (which is underway, but hard to tell timeframes)

tokenadult 14y ago

The future: high inflation in food, energy, fuel, and consumables, hyper-deflation in everything else except to the extent that it depends on or consumes the former. The reply below your reply that says "The act of predicting the future alters the future" indeed expresses a truth about economics. But as a person who once predicted the future, by writing down my predictions and putting them (with classmates' predictions) in a time capsule that was opened thirty-one years later, I'd like to explore this process of predicting the future a bit more. What exactly do you mean by "high inflation in food, energy, fuel, and consumables." Do you mean that in the developed world it will take more units of time at typical paid work to buy a meal or light up a room in 2050 than it does in 2012? That suggests a bet, a bet on which I would be willing to take the side contrary to your side. (I think so, as soon as I figure out if that is really what you are predicting.) What is included in the category "consumables," and what is not? What is your definition of "hyperdeflation"? Does that basically mean that you or I or anyone else in the developed world will be able to obtain more and more of that "everything else" (WHAT everything else?) for fewer and fewer units of time spent in paid work? What kinds of goods or services do you have in mind here?

mindslight 14y ago

What else could you expect when the explicit goal of monetary policy is to fight natural deflation? (how does any upstart win in a competitive market? doing better things cheaper). The costs of manufacturing and services are dropping the quickest, so feedback-driven monetary inflation causes the price of raw resources to skyrocket.