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Canon ships its first nanoprint lithography machine, rivals ASML
- java-man 2y agoHow do they make the mould?
- hunglee2 2y agohostile de-globalisation eroding single supplier dominance through the SC supply chain. Good opportunity for more players to take smaller slices of a growing pie
- 4gotunameagain 2y agonobody was stopping them before the hostile de-globalisation which increases the risk of conflict by reducing what each side has to lose.
- neuroelectron 2y agoArtificial incentives are artificial
- ksec 2y agoI wonder about the TCO of nanoprint. The ASML TwinScan is only a part of the CapeX and part of the cost in OpeX of a Fab. You will need to take into account how many wafers it can do per month including down time and maintenance. Yield. Cost of Design and EDA. Whether tools are portable. BOM and running cost or basically electricity usage. EUV TwinScan is extremely power hungry. And then you need to take into account of its other design constraint. Does it work equally well with analog. Obviously there would be less ready made design blueprint available etc. And if it was that much cheaper you would have seen it being used in commodity like DRAM and NAND. It is not which suggest there are missing / downside information we dont know.
- detourdog 2y agoVolume is only one route to profitability. Smaller scale is fine for smaller markets with larger margins.
- ksec 2y agoI am not sure how my comments not relates to volume. NAND and DRAM is precisely where all the volumes are.
- detourdog 2y agoI'm not exactly sure where we are misunderstanding each other. I just wanted to point out that volume is a goal generally of commodity goods. I see opportunities in niche markets that don't rely on volume for profitability. Specific NAND and DRAM are only needed because general purpose computing production currently relies on large volumes of RAM and techniques developed a market to meet the need. A niche market could solve computing problems that avoid NAND and DRAM by solving computing problems with another method. The PC market as it stands right now has developed through commodity solutions but that isn't the only way to skin a cat.
- aurareturn 2y agoWhen Canon first started developing these machines, I wonder if they knew that one of the biggest markets in the world, China, would be completely cut off from them. I can see these machines succeeding if China is allowed to buy them. But with just a handful of semi fabs remaining and the most cutting edge chips in much higher demand, what is the market for these machines?
- Cumpiler69 2y ago> if China is allowed to buy them The US controls what Japan can and can't do, so it will be a NO.
- aurareturn 2y agoThe question isn't if Canon can sell to China now. The question is when Canon decided to invest R&D into this machine, did they have any idea that China would be cut off from this product? I assume that Canon definitely wanted to sell to China. But now the market is severely limited. TSMC uses ASML. Intel uses ASML. Both aim to manufacture the most cutting edge chips. That's where the money is. In addition, both TSMC and Intel own a fairly decent amount of shares in ASML.
- shipp02 2y agoIt would be sad to see the competition die just because it's a little late, especially in such an important and cornerstone piece of technology today.
- ksec 2y ago>The question is when Canon decided to invest R&D into this machine, They have been doing this R&D since the 90s. I doubt they think much into it whether China have access but more whether it could compete with traditional tools.
- Two4 2y agoIf there's one thing you want if you're highly dependent on a single vendor or supplier, it's a competitor to keep them in check. Expect the big players to buy a bunch of these, even if they do own shares in ASML.
- vfclists 2y agoDoes this come under the US controls on high tech equipment that use IP from US companies?
- throwaway81523 2y agoThis appears is a direct write on wafer machine. Is it likely way way slower than a lithography machine?
- openrisk 2y ago> the price would be “one digit less than ASML’s EUVs.” if thats true it will surely be a game changer, if not immediately surely in the medium term? geopolitics, oligopolies and oligopsonies notwithstanding, if a technology slices an order of magnitude it does change the landscape.
- hyperhello 2y agoThere are hundreds of additive steps in a process. Even if one step has zero price, don’t expect the total to collapse.
- rasz 2y agoDue to the way it works speed is also several digits off.
- mdnahas 2y agoI think that’s a sign that ASML hasn’t had much competition at that scale. And that the new tech requires buyers willing to take a risk and invest in learning the new process.
- whazor 2y agoActually, Canon used to be the one of the main players, whereas ASML was the new kid on the block. It with new technologies and high reliability that made ASML win.
- whazor 2y agoThe ASML machines are modular and each generation gets new upgrades that pushes Moore’s law further. For example, with the previous generation, the Chinese SMCI modified the machines to be competitive with the newer chips from EUV machines. So there is a lot of expectation on the new EUV machines still. Also in terms of productivity. With the stamping approach there might be less upgradability possible. But it might also still unlock new markets.
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- andimm 2y agoFor those like me who haven‘t heard of ASML before. There was a recent NPR Planet Money episode (26 minutes) about the company. I found it quite interesting: https://www.npr.org/2024/11/13/1212604208/asml-euv-extreme-ultraviolet-lithography-microchips https://www.npr.org/2024/11/13/1212604208/asml-euv-extreme-u...