3 ms·

Beyond the traditional dichotomy of right and left, it's always insightful to contrast real politics and media narratives with reality. Javier Milei is introduc

by wslh 2y ago

Beyond the traditional dichotomy of right and left, it's always insightful to contrast real politics and media narratives with reality. Javier Milei is introducing several changes in Argentina, but it will take time to assess their effectiveness. As of now, some key issues remain: - The USD/ARS exchange rate is still tightly controlled by the state, which is neither libertarian nor liberal in practice. - There are no significant incentives for exports. Only imports. - Many Argentinian unicorns and startups are incorporated abroad (e.g., in the US) and show no intention of returning. Moreover, Milei has proposed appointing a highly corrupt judge, Ariel Lijo, to the Supreme Court [1]. On a smaller scale, when my offices in Argentina needed to import three laptops for software engineers, the shipment was blocked due to the mail courier limit of USD 1,000. This cap is now being raised to USD 3,000, but such constraints highlight the ongoing barriers to conducting business. [1] https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Lijo https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Lijo

fifteen1506 2y ago
You don't understand, he's not corrupt, he is misunderstood, otherwise Milei wouldn't be proposing him.
luzojeda 2y ago
My two cents even tho I'm afraid this thread might become a political battleground: I'm from Argentina and 30 years old, of course he led us to a recession but for the first time in my adult life I can keep prices in my head and I know next month they'll be pretty much the same. Some people who never experienced +10% inflation in a month can't even imagine that and I understand it. I for one like this stability, dunno. Regarding your second paragraph, I work for a US company as well and I've been dealing with the mess that is just getting your hard earned money here. Only few people are aware that we still are mandated to change our dollars for pesos at the rate that the government says. Of course nowadays it's not that bad because that rate is almost the same as the one you get in the famous "cuevas", the black market exchange places. But in 2022-2023 sometimes the difference between those two were almost 100%. So you had to deal with tons and tons of cash, it was a nightmare.
- wslh 2y ago
  > I'm from Argentina and 30 years old.. There’s a saying: “In Argentina, everything changes every day, but if you come back after ten years, nothing has changed.” In your case, you were born around 1994. Until you were about six years old, if you went to the supermarket with your family, you could probably keep track of prices in your head. By the time you were 16, the inflation rate was likely double what it is now. If you ask someone at ~70 years old they will tell you similar stories about cycles of high and "stability".
  - luzojeda 2y ago
    I don't think so because except for the 90s Argentina had inflation since the 1950s[0]. That 70 years old would only remember the 90s as the most stable period. Sure, the 60s weren't that bad but we still had high inflation. [0]: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/93/Argentina_Inflation.webp/1920px-Argentina_Inflation.webp.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/93/Ar... (just note the Y axis scale... if it were from 0 to 100 you would truly see there were very few years with 1 digit inflation)
    - wslh 2y ago
      First, it is important to highlight for people no familiar with Argentina that the current yearly "Milei" inflation is above 40% and it could be difficult to go much below. This inflation takes into account a very basic basket. The current inflation is very high and the country is in a recession. This is just a macroeconomic measure beyond Milei and its legacy. Then, sorry, you are mistaken about historical inflation rates and you can check that easily [1]. Comparing just one year of government inflation as a data point is not enough to extrapolate, and I haven't started talking about carry trade that gives investors more than 10% per month in USD. Last time that happened, just two governments ago and with The same guy, there was a crash one day. [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi
rodrigobellusci 2y ago
Regarding you first point, that's expected to change sometime during next year. Let's hope they keep their word. Personally I don't think it would have been a good idea to let the value of the USD run free. If Milei and co. had done that from day one everyone would have rushed to buy dollars. My 2 cents: I like that inflation is lower than ever, and hope that it keeps going down. I want our currency and country to be more stable. I want it to be viable, and believe we are on our way to achieving that.
- wslh 2y ago
  > Personally I don't think it would have been a good idea to let the value of the USD run free. If Milei and co. had done that from day one everyone would have rushed to buy dollars. You are, of course, free to express your opinion. However, the issue I see with your argument is that if a libertarian, pro-Austrian economics government decides to control the USD/ARS exchange rate, it contradicts the principles on which they were elected. This is not what the people voted for.
  - 343rwerfd 2y ago
    In Argentina, this pro-Austrian economics government which has severe limitations in terms of law, regulations, and the heavily destroyed general economy of the country, does not have enough freedom to swiftly change things to "what ideally should be". You have to thoughfully begin to implement changes in order for them to take place in the precise step-by-step order to actually change stuff towards an actual free market economy, and at the same time not just blowing up society's political support. You cannot just make a jump from 40 to 80% of general poverty promising somewhere in the range from 5 to 15 years they begin to recover their previous economic statuses. In Argentina, there is even a time constrain: 36 months precisely, after this the society's processes for a general election for presidency begin, and if the current government hasn't achieved enough success in the general population's opinion, one year later, it is not anymore the government. Hence Milei is just going the fastest he can through the explained process. I think the people voted a political leadership with enough empaty to understand they cannot just crush the population with free markets policies given the atrocius consequences of doing so without the minimal pre-conditions previously achieved.
marcosdumay 2y ago
> There are no significant incentives for exports. Only imports. I have an urge to punch some politician in the face every time somebody creates one of those systems that punish one and incentives the other. They can't move independently.

by wslh 2y ago

fifteen1506 2y ago

You don't understand, he's not corrupt, he is misunderstood, otherwise Milei wouldn't be proposing him.

luzojeda 2y ago

My two cents even tho I'm afraid this thread might become a political battleground: I'm from Argentina and 30 years old, of course he led us to a recession but for the first time in my adult life I can keep prices in my head and I know next month they'll be pretty much the same. Some people who never experienced +10% inflation in a month can't even imagine that and I understand it. I for one like this stability, dunno. Regarding your second paragraph, I work for a US company as well and I've been dealing with the mess that is just getting your hard earned money here. Only few people are aware that we still are mandated to change our dollars for pesos at the rate that the government says. Of course nowadays it's not that bad because that rate is almost the same as the one you get in the famous "cuevas", the black market exchange places. But in 2022-2023 sometimes the difference between those two were almost 100%. So you had to deal with tons and tons of cash, it was a nightmare.

wslh 2y ago
> I'm from Argentina and 30 years old.. There’s a saying: “In Argentina, everything changes every day, but if you come back after ten years, nothing has changed.” In your case, you were born around 1994. Until you were about six years old, if you went to the supermarket with your family, you could probably keep track of prices in your head. By the time you were 16, the inflation rate was likely double what it is now. If you ask someone at ~70 years old they will tell you similar stories about cycles of high and "stability".
- luzojeda 2y ago
  I don't think so because except for the 90s Argentina had inflation since the 1950s[0]. That 70 years old would only remember the 90s as the most stable period. Sure, the 60s weren't that bad but we still had high inflation. [0]: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/93/Argentina_Inflation.webp/1920px-Argentina_Inflation.webp.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/93/Ar... (just note the Y axis scale... if it were from 0 to 100 you would truly see there were very few years with 1 digit inflation)
  - wslh 2y ago
    First, it is important to highlight for people no familiar with Argentina that the current yearly "Milei" inflation is above 40% and it could be difficult to go much below. This inflation takes into account a very basic basket. The current inflation is very high and the country is in a recession. This is just a macroeconomic measure beyond Milei and its legacy. Then, sorry, you are mistaken about historical inflation rates and you can check that easily [1]. Comparing just one year of government inflation as a data point is not enough to extrapolate, and I haven't started talking about carry trade that gives investors more than 10% per month in USD. Last time that happened, just two governments ago and with The same guy, there was a crash one day. [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi

rodrigobellusci 2y ago

Regarding you first point, that's expected to change sometime during next year. Let's hope they keep their word. Personally I don't think it would have been a good idea to let the value of the USD run free. If Milei and co. had done that from day one everyone would have rushed to buy dollars. My 2 cents: I like that inflation is lower than ever, and hope that it keeps going down. I want our currency and country to be more stable. I want it to be viable, and believe we are on our way to achieving that.

wslh 2y ago
> Personally I don't think it would have been a good idea to let the value of the USD run free. If Milei and co. had done that from day one everyone would have rushed to buy dollars. You are, of course, free to express your opinion. However, the issue I see with your argument is that if a libertarian, pro-Austrian economics government decides to control the USD/ARS exchange rate, it contradicts the principles on which they were elected. This is not what the people voted for.
- 343rwerfd 2y ago
  In Argentina, this pro-Austrian economics government which has severe limitations in terms of law, regulations, and the heavily destroyed general economy of the country, does not have enough freedom to swiftly change things to "what ideally should be". You have to thoughfully begin to implement changes in order for them to take place in the precise step-by-step order to actually change stuff towards an actual free market economy, and at the same time not just blowing up society's political support. You cannot just make a jump from 40 to 80% of general poverty promising somewhere in the range from 5 to 15 years they begin to recover their previous economic statuses. In Argentina, there is even a time constrain: 36 months precisely, after this the society's processes for a general election for presidency begin, and if the current government hasn't achieved enough success in the general population's opinion, one year later, it is not anymore the government. Hence Milei is just going the fastest he can through the explained process. I think the people voted a political leadership with enough empaty to understand they cannot just crush the population with free markets policies given the atrocius consequences of doing so without the minimal pre-conditions previously achieved.

marcosdumay 2y ago

> There are no significant incentives for exports. Only imports. I have an urge to punch some politician in the face every time somebody creates one of those systems that punish one and incentives the other. They can't move independently.