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The 100% tariffs are already in place under the Biden administration. Trump only needs to prevent a Mexico manufacturing loophole. However, BYD still has the e

The 100% tariffs are already in place under the Biden administration. Trump only needs to prevent a Mexico manufacturing loophole. However, BYD still has the entire rest of the world to sell to. They will be fine.

jqpabc123 2y ago
Yes, BYD will be fine. And they know this is --- hence they are doubling the size of their already massive factory. Guess who won't be fine? US auto manufacturers. They won't be able to compete anywhere other than the USA. And China loves it.
- api 2y ago
  US auto makers have been on the ropes since the 1980s. My hypothesis is that their heyday was 50s and 60s “greaser” culture and they kinda got their heads stuck in that era. “Golden ages” are incredibly dangerous. When people started wanting just practical small reliable affordable cars as the price of gas increased and cars became just an appliance they didn’t respond to that market and the Japanese did. It’s been either sideways or downhill since. The only thing keeping them alive now is unnecessarily large status symbol trucks and that is a limited market that will be trashed if oil spikes again. There’s got to be a limit somewhere to how much people will pay to show off or own the libs or whatever motivates one to buy an F-5000 Super Chungus. They are still mostly missing the EV boat. First Tesla caught them asleep and now China. Culturally they still are not crazy about EVs because they do not go vroom vroom. Trump might string them along a bit longer with protectionism and a pull back on EVs to push more vroom vroom but meanwhile BYD will eat the entire world.
  - wbl 2y ago
    The US consumer does not buy small new cars.
    - JKCalhoun 2y ago
      As has been pointed out, they sure did in the 70's when there was a huge financial incentive. I expect that acting like all American's want are $60K+ luxury cars is what is going to take the US auto industry into the next massive downward spiral.
      - peterbecich 2y ago
        I.m.o. consumer weight on safety has dramatically increased since the 70s. Frugality has decreased. Of course it is an arms race with all the other giant cars already on the road. Consequently GM etc. are trying to appease US consumers with giant EVs.
        JKCalhoun 2y ago
        I agree. But there's a tipping point too (I think). Another depression and we'll no doubt tip over.
    - peterbecich 2y ago
      I agree with you. I.m.o. consumer preference is the root cause of the issue. The 2008 bailout had some strings attached to modernize. I believe the Chevrolet Spark was one of these strings: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Spark#Third_generation_(M300;_2009) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Spark#Third_generati.... It was eventually discontinued.
  - parpfish 2y ago
    I think there’s a little bit more to the golden age story. The “malaise era” started in the early 70s as a perfect storm of fuel economy restrictions and more widespread US economic woes. This lead to decades of low quality cars being made. US automakers not only lost out on consumers looking for simple appliances to drive, but ALSO the enthusiasts that liked driving and cars. The car guys that came of age in this era have two choices: chase after the same American muscle cars your dad liked, or switch over to imported hot hatches and the JDM tuner scene
    - jmb99 2y ago
      > This lead to decades of low quality cars being made. Really, it was only a bit over one decade. Taking GM as an example, their last great cars were produced for the 1973 model year, after which point the economy, emissions, and efficiency requirements resulted in drastic (bad) changes. It only took until the late 1980s for them to make some genuinely good vehicles though. For instance, the Buick Regal/Oldsmobile Cutlass/Pontiac Grand Prix from 1988 were well built, comfortable, handled (relatively) well, and were very reliable - especially from 1990 with the introduction of the 3.8L V6, what is likely GM’s most reliable engine ever built (second possibly only to the small block V8). The same was tru for their sports cars (while not making much power out of the displacement, the TPI V8 firebird and corvette were similarly efficient to European sports cars at the time). Many GM cars from that era (late 1980s until early 2000s) are some of the most reliable American cars ever built. The same is true for Ford; for example, the 1988 Probe, while not the most popular vehicle, was very reliable, comfortable, efficient, and well-built, likely in part due to their partnership with Mazda. It could reasonably be argued that as early as 1980, Ford was making pretty good vehicles, with the Mercury Grand Marquis/LTD Crown Victoria being well-built and reliable, if very down on power with questionable efficiency. Not worth talking about Chrysler because they didn’t know how to make good/reliable cars before the fuel crisis and they certainly didn’t figure out how to afterwards. I know this isn’t your main point but it’s worth considering that the US did actually figure out how to build really good cars again, and it didn’t take them that long. Mid-90s to early-00s American cars were, in my opinion, at the perfect point of technological advancement: CAD and high-precision/low-tolerance manufacturing resulting in engines that last well over 300k miles without major servicing; enough computer advancement to have high precision per-cylinder fuel and spark control with accurate air metering leading to better power, efficiency, and reliability; and enough material advancement to have interior and exterior build quality that makes the car look like it wasn’t built in a shed. But most importantly, they hadn’t figured out how or where to cheap out on components, so you end up with the “unreliable” components (like the 4L60e and 4T60e transmissions) “only” lasting 200k miles before requiring a rebuild - which in today’s money is still less than $1000, let alone 20-30 years ago. From the birth of the US auto industry until about 2010, the only period where there wasn’t a single American car worth buying brand new was probably 1974-1981. The “malaise era” itself was by the loosest definitions only about 13 years, from 1974-1987.
  - grecy 2y ago
    > US auto makers have been on the ropes since the 1980s. Without a doubt. In about 2000 the US automakers sued the EPA because their proposed clean air regulations for about 2009 were "impossible". They were actually more lax than what Japanese automakers were already selling cars for in the year 2000. So the automakers sued the US government to admit that in 2009 they couldn't build cars that were as clean as cars Japan was already making in 2000. That says a lot.
    - themaninthedark 2y ago
      They were right about those regulations. The CAFE is why we now have the proliferation of huge trucks and SUVs instead of sedans. Cars from Japan, 2000 or current that are clean aren't street legal here because they don't meet the safety standards. Those safety features add weight, which in turn drive down the efficiency.
      - grecy 2y ago
        > Cars from Japan, 2000 or current that are clean aren't street legal here because they don't meet the safety standards I've seen this repeated for 25 years now, and to be honest I think it's simply not true. Can you list one safety standard they don't meet? The GT-R is identical as sold in Japan and the USA (well, actually, the US version has wider seats - true story). Even when that one guy homologated the R32 Skyline into the USA he barely modified the front bumper at all and it met crash safety standards as it was.
        themaninthedark 2y ago
        I am not familiar with the NHTSA and EPA regulations to point you to one specfic place in the code but here is a citation. Also a lot of the Japanese vehicles that people point to as being more efficient are Kei class, these vehicles don't meet NHTSA code as they would not survive the crash tests. https://gearshifters.org/nissan/how-to-import-a-nissan-silvia-s15-into-the-us/ https://gearshifters.org/nissan/how-to-import-a-nissan-silvi... >Beginning in January 2024, the 1999 Nissan Silvia S15 will turn 25 years old. It will no longer be subject to NHTSA regulations after it turns 25 and can be legally imported into the USA. >Because it did not adhere to federal safety and environmental regulations and featured a right-hand steering column, like cars in England, this particular vehicle was deemed unlawful in the United States. However, some Silvia vehicles have been registered in the US after being modified to comply with US laws.
  - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
    Their downfall was earlier than that. Post WW2 everyone was looking to buy a new car (people kept their old one during the war because production was going to the war effort). The car companies had such demand they moved to a 'car salesman' sales structure to milk every customer as much as possible because demand was so much higher than production. They got hooked on the easy money and entrenched a lot of bad business practices/policies as a result. GM for all intents and purposes died (remember we funded a whole new GM, a completely new business entity, during the 2008 financial crisis timeframe) and yet new GM just 'invested' 6 billion dollars in stock buybacks, millions in management bonuses while conducting employee layoffs. But they will have no problem coming and asking the government for billions 'to remain competitive' soon. F'm.
    - themaninthedark 2y ago
      Source for manufacturers making everyone go to dealers, wiki says the opposite. With the NADA lobbying to make it illegal for mfg to sell direct. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_dealerships_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_dealerships_in_the_United_... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_dealership https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_dealership https://caredge.com/guides/how-did-car-dealerships-become-so-powerful https://caredge.com/guides/how-did-car-dealerships-become-so...
      - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
        Sorry for the confusions, but I didn't talk about dealers I talked about the 'car salesman' model.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- FooBarBizBazz 2y ago
  > Guess who won't be fine? US auto manufacturers. The US is trying to do industrial policy (like now in China, and previously in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, and in Germany before that), but without the key aspect -- export discipline -- that makes industrial policy work. I'm thinking about Joe Studwell's How Asia Works. Everything I'm seeing in the US reminds me more of the failures in Indonesia and India than of the successes in Japan and Korea. With the exceptions of -- "say what you will about Elon, but" -- Tesla and SpaceX. Bidenonics will take time to bear fruit, though, and could yet yield some successes. Point is, using tariffs to protect "infant industry" is the opposite of export discipline. (As a side note, most of those countries also had major land reform, whereas property rights -- sorry, "rule of law" -- are pretty sacred in the US )
- _DeadFred_ 2y ago
  The US government bailed out GM under Obama. Do you know what GM did this month? They spent billions on stock buybacks and millions on bonuses while firing a ton of people. F'em. They aren't a car company, they are a stock company that happens to make cars, a route most large American companies seem to be taking (see also Boeing, whose management cares so much about/is detached from their product that they relocated their management away from the business and to Washington DC).
  - MaxPock 2y ago
    China is a 30 million a year car market and up until 2 years ago,GM used to sell more cars in China than in the US . It was an incredible cash cow .
    - tibbydudeza 2y ago
      GM sales has cratered there - a wrong product mix for a market that wants 36% EV's or hybrids hence them focusing on new EV platform and doing the new Bolt.
    - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
      It was so weird going to China backing in the early 2010's and seeing everyone driving Buicks. I'm not sure what I was expecting, but it wasn't a sea of Buicks.
kwere 2y ago
Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and many other countries turned sour on importing chinese EVs in favour of some kind of protectionism. Most developing countries dont have the infrastucture for EVs. Europe hit BYD with a 17 % tariff (10% being the standard)
- marcodiego 2y ago
  BYD has factories in Brazil: https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2024/09/04/byds-first-factory-warehouse-in-brazil-to-be-ready-in-october.ghtml https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2024/09/0... https://en.byd.com/news/byd-company-announces-first-factory-in-brazil/ https://en.byd.com/news/byd-company-announces-first-factory-...
  - bdangubic 2y ago
    why does that matter?! :)
    - teractiveodular 2y ago
      When they're locally built, tariffs don't apply. Like Japanese, Korean and European car manufacturers, BYD will do the same in Mexico and eventually the US if necessary.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

jqpabc123 2y ago

Yes, BYD will be fine. And they know this is --- hence they are doubling the size of their already massive factory. Guess who won't be fine? US auto manufacturers. They won't be able to compete anywhere other than the USA. And China loves it.

api 2y ago
US auto makers have been on the ropes since the 1980s. My hypothesis is that their heyday was 50s and 60s “greaser” culture and they kinda got their heads stuck in that era. “Golden ages” are incredibly dangerous. When people started wanting just practical small reliable affordable cars as the price of gas increased and cars became just an appliance they didn’t respond to that market and the Japanese did. It’s been either sideways or downhill since. The only thing keeping them alive now is unnecessarily large status symbol trucks and that is a limited market that will be trashed if oil spikes again. There’s got to be a limit somewhere to how much people will pay to show off or own the libs or whatever motivates one to buy an F-5000 Super Chungus. They are still mostly missing the EV boat. First Tesla caught them asleep and now China. Culturally they still are not crazy about EVs because they do not go vroom vroom. Trump might string them along a bit longer with protectionism and a pull back on EVs to push more vroom vroom but meanwhile BYD will eat the entire world.
- wbl 2y ago
  The US consumer does not buy small new cars.
  - JKCalhoun 2y ago
    As has been pointed out, they sure did in the 70's when there was a huge financial incentive. I expect that acting like all American's want are $60K+ luxury cars is what is going to take the US auto industry into the next massive downward spiral.
    - peterbecich 2y ago
      I.m.o. consumer weight on safety has dramatically increased since the 70s. Frugality has decreased. Of course it is an arms race with all the other giant cars already on the road. Consequently GM etc. are trying to appease US consumers with giant EVs.
      - JKCalhoun 2y ago
        I agree. But there's a tipping point too (I think). Another depression and we'll no doubt tip over.
  - peterbecich 2y ago
    I agree with you. I.m.o. consumer preference is the root cause of the issue. The 2008 bailout had some strings attached to modernize. I believe the Chevrolet Spark was one of these strings: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Spark#Third_generation_(M300;_2009) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Spark#Third_generati.... It was eventually discontinued.
- parpfish 2y ago
  I think there’s a little bit more to the golden age story. The “malaise era” started in the early 70s as a perfect storm of fuel economy restrictions and more widespread US economic woes. This lead to decades of low quality cars being made. US automakers not only lost out on consumers looking for simple appliances to drive, but ALSO the enthusiasts that liked driving and cars. The car guys that came of age in this era have two choices: chase after the same American muscle cars your dad liked, or switch over to imported hot hatches and the JDM tuner scene
  - jmb99 2y ago
    > This lead to decades of low quality cars being made. Really, it was only a bit over one decade. Taking GM as an example, their last great cars were produced for the 1973 model year, after which point the economy, emissions, and efficiency requirements resulted in drastic (bad) changes. It only took until the late 1980s for them to make some genuinely good vehicles though. For instance, the Buick Regal/Oldsmobile Cutlass/Pontiac Grand Prix from 1988 were well built, comfortable, handled (relatively) well, and were very reliable - especially from 1990 with the introduction of the 3.8L V6, what is likely GM’s most reliable engine ever built (second possibly only to the small block V8). The same was tru for their sports cars (while not making much power out of the displacement, the TPI V8 firebird and corvette were similarly efficient to European sports cars at the time). Many GM cars from that era (late 1980s until early 2000s) are some of the most reliable American cars ever built. The same is true for Ford; for example, the 1988 Probe, while not the most popular vehicle, was very reliable, comfortable, efficient, and well-built, likely in part due to their partnership with Mazda. It could reasonably be argued that as early as 1980, Ford was making pretty good vehicles, with the Mercury Grand Marquis/LTD Crown Victoria being well-built and reliable, if very down on power with questionable efficiency. Not worth talking about Chrysler because they didn’t know how to make good/reliable cars before the fuel crisis and they certainly didn’t figure out how to afterwards. I know this isn’t your main point but it’s worth considering that the US did actually figure out how to build really good cars again, and it didn’t take them that long. Mid-90s to early-00s American cars were, in my opinion, at the perfect point of technological advancement: CAD and high-precision/low-tolerance manufacturing resulting in engines that last well over 300k miles without major servicing; enough computer advancement to have high precision per-cylinder fuel and spark control with accurate air metering leading to better power, efficiency, and reliability; and enough material advancement to have interior and exterior build quality that makes the car look like it wasn’t built in a shed. But most importantly, they hadn’t figured out how or where to cheap out on components, so you end up with the “unreliable” components (like the 4L60e and 4T60e transmissions) “only” lasting 200k miles before requiring a rebuild - which in today’s money is still less than $1000, let alone 20-30 years ago. From the birth of the US auto industry until about 2010, the only period where there wasn’t a single American car worth buying brand new was probably 1974-1981. The “malaise era” itself was by the loosest definitions only about 13 years, from 1974-1987.
- grecy 2y ago
  > US auto makers have been on the ropes since the 1980s. Without a doubt. In about 2000 the US automakers sued the EPA because their proposed clean air regulations for about 2009 were "impossible". They were actually more lax than what Japanese automakers were already selling cars for in the year 2000. So the automakers sued the US government to admit that in 2009 they couldn't build cars that were as clean as cars Japan was already making in 2000. That says a lot.
  - themaninthedark 2y ago
    They were right about those regulations. The CAFE is why we now have the proliferation of huge trucks and SUVs instead of sedans. Cars from Japan, 2000 or current that are clean aren't street legal here because they don't meet the safety standards. Those safety features add weight, which in turn drive down the efficiency.
    - grecy 2y ago
      > Cars from Japan, 2000 or current that are clean aren't street legal here because they don't meet the safety standards I've seen this repeated for 25 years now, and to be honest I think it's simply not true. Can you list one safety standard they don't meet? The GT-R is identical as sold in Japan and the USA (well, actually, the US version has wider seats - true story). Even when that one guy homologated the R32 Skyline into the USA he barely modified the front bumper at all and it met crash safety standards as it was.
      - themaninthedark 2y ago
        I am not familiar with the NHTSA and EPA regulations to point you to one specfic place in the code but here is a citation. Also a lot of the Japanese vehicles that people point to as being more efficient are Kei class, these vehicles don't meet NHTSA code as they would not survive the crash tests. https://gearshifters.org/nissan/how-to-import-a-nissan-silvia-s15-into-the-us/ https://gearshifters.org/nissan/how-to-import-a-nissan-silvi... >Beginning in January 2024, the 1999 Nissan Silvia S15 will turn 25 years old. It will no longer be subject to NHTSA regulations after it turns 25 and can be legally imported into the USA. >Because it did not adhere to federal safety and environmental regulations and featured a right-hand steering column, like cars in England, this particular vehicle was deemed unlawful in the United States. However, some Silvia vehicles have been registered in the US after being modified to comply with US laws.
- _DeadFred_ 2y ago
  Their downfall was earlier than that. Post WW2 everyone was looking to buy a new car (people kept their old one during the war because production was going to the war effort). The car companies had such demand they moved to a 'car salesman' sales structure to milk every customer as much as possible because demand was so much higher than production. They got hooked on the easy money and entrenched a lot of bad business practices/policies as a result. GM for all intents and purposes died (remember we funded a whole new GM, a completely new business entity, during the 2008 financial crisis timeframe) and yet new GM just 'invested' 6 billion dollars in stock buybacks, millions in management bonuses while conducting employee layoffs. But they will have no problem coming and asking the government for billions 'to remain competitive' soon. F'm.
  - themaninthedark 2y ago
    Source for manufacturers making everyone go to dealers, wiki says the opposite. With the NADA lobbying to make it illegal for mfg to sell direct. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_dealerships_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_dealerships_in_the_United_... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_dealership https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_dealership https://caredge.com/guides/how-did-car-dealerships-become-so-powerful https://caredge.com/guides/how-did-car-dealerships-become-so...
    - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
      Sorry for the confusions, but I didn't talk about dealers I talked about the 'car salesman' model.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
FooBarBizBazz 2y ago
> Guess who won't be fine? US auto manufacturers. The US is trying to do industrial policy (like now in China, and previously in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, and in Germany before that), but without the key aspect -- export discipline -- that makes industrial policy work. I'm thinking about Joe Studwell's How Asia Works. Everything I'm seeing in the US reminds me more of the failures in Indonesia and India than of the successes in Japan and Korea. With the exceptions of -- "say what you will about Elon, but" -- Tesla and SpaceX. Bidenonics will take time to bear fruit, though, and could yet yield some successes. Point is, using tariffs to protect "infant industry" is the opposite of export discipline. (As a side note, most of those countries also had major land reform, whereas property rights -- sorry, "rule of law" -- are pretty sacred in the US )
_DeadFred_ 2y ago
The US government bailed out GM under Obama. Do you know what GM did this month? They spent billions on stock buybacks and millions on bonuses while firing a ton of people. F'em. They aren't a car company, they are a stock company that happens to make cars, a route most large American companies seem to be taking (see also Boeing, whose management cares so much about/is detached from their product that they relocated their management away from the business and to Washington DC).
- MaxPock 2y ago
  China is a 30 million a year car market and up until 2 years ago,GM used to sell more cars in China than in the US . It was an incredible cash cow .
  - tibbydudeza 2y ago
    GM sales has cratered there - a wrong product mix for a market that wants 36% EV's or hybrids hence them focusing on new EV platform and doing the new Bolt.
  - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
    It was so weird going to China backing in the early 2010's and seeing everyone driving Buicks. I'm not sure what I was expecting, but it wasn't a sea of Buicks.

kwere 2y ago

Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and many other countries turned sour on importing chinese EVs in favour of some kind of protectionism. Most developing countries dont have the infrastucture for EVs. Europe hit BYD with a 17 % tariff (10% being the standard)

marcodiego 2y ago
BYD has factories in Brazil: https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2024/09/04/byds-first-factory-warehouse-in-brazil-to-be-ready-in-october.ghtml https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2024/09/0... https://en.byd.com/news/byd-company-announces-first-factory-in-brazil/ https://en.byd.com/news/byd-company-announces-first-factory-...
- bdangubic 2y ago
  why does that matter?! :)
  - teractiveodular 2y ago
    When they're locally built, tariffs don't apply. Like Japanese, Korean and European car manufacturers, BYD will do the same in Mexico and eventually the US if necessary.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]