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Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is o

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions. Similar problems exist across a wide range of industries in Russia. There's a reason why they closed off their stock market, they can't afford to let the full impact be visible.

reducesuffering 2y ago
The Russian Ruble is also starting to do very bad again: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=5Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=5Y
sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
>There's a reason why they closed off their stock market That's a completely false information. The stock market isn't closed.
- dcrazy 2y ago
  The post you are quoting did not say they closed the stock market. They said they “closed off” the stock market, which implies denying access to certain classes of investors. That said, I’m not finding anything about Russia prohibiting foreign investment, but I am finding a lot about sanctions prohibiting dollar and Euro investment in Russia.
  - sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
    I have an investor account and I know for sure the stock market isn't closed.
    - jhugo 2y ago
      “Closed off” means “restricted access to”. It doesn’t mean “closed”. I have no idea what restrictions the parent was referring to, but they weren’t saying that the stock market shut down.
      - sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
        Perhaps you're right. English isn't my native language - thanks for explaining.
      - the_mitsuhiko 2y ago
        As a "westerner" you will need a Russian residence permit I think to trade. I at least would not know how you can actually buy something in MOEX as someone based in Europe.
- Etheryte 2y ago
  Foreigners are not allowed to sell on the Russian stock market from the Russian side [0] and they're generally not allowed to buy from the sanctions side. This means that as a foreign investor you're barred from trading in any useful meaning of the word. Buy and hold in the hopes that you might be able to maybe some day sell, whether that's in a year, ten years, or a hundred, is not really a viable strategy. That's also the reason why investment and asset management companies of all sizes are trying to find their exits from the Russian market, see for example Van Eck [1], just the latest addition in a long line of many: > Regulatory and market conditions do not currently permit the Funds to conduct transactions in the local Russian market. [0] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/limited-russian-stock-market-trading-resume-march-24-central-bank-says-2022-03-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/limited-russian-sto... [1] https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-equity/rsx-rsxj-liquidation-faq/ https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-equity/r...
hammock 2y ago
Good point. Worth noting that the Russian newspaper reporting this, Kommersant, is the most liberal/independent of the three business dailies in the country and is sort of the Babylon Bee of Russia, if the BB wasn’t satire: it spells its name with pre-Revolution Cyrillic and uses creative neologisms, wordplay, metaphors, and legally imposed euphemisms in its stories to maintain a degree of independence in periods of severe state censorship
ethbr1 2y ago
The point of modern sanctions is not that it makes import impossible (look at Russian circumvention for dual-use military technologies), but that it makes import at whole-economy scale more expensive and unreliable. And ultimately that's what imposes economic costs. It'll be curious how much of the gap is filled by substitute Chinese goods. (E.g. the domestic CFM-alternative engine projects [0]) With the wrinkle that Russia and China are united by their geopolitical opponents more than their friendship, and Xi doesn't seem thrilled about shackling the Chinese economy to the consequences of Russian war. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A
- sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
  Russia is a civilian aircraft producer. There's no need for Chinese airplanes (which they have troubles with).
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Russia is a civilian aircraft producer Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.) That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.
    - sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
      Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.
      - untech 2y ago
        [flagged]
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        “Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data.” https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
cen4 2y ago
The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > sanctions don't have a goal You missed the goal of sanctions on Russia? > MIL complex is on over drive This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine. > mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can This is wrong. It’s a resource-commitment problem. Not one of capabilities or confidence.
  - the_mitsuhiko 2y ago
    > This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine. The Russian economy is doing "mixed". It's a war economy which can be propped up for quite a while but it has significant structural issues that will take years to repair. The country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership. I find this general attitude of "Russia has no issues" that are going around on the internet quite confusing if pretty much every economic indicator says otherwise. Let alone the fact that a meaningful part of the working population is fighting or left the country rather than engaging in the economy.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership It’s removing itself as a conventional threat to Europe for generations to come. And as much as Beijing is a rival to Washington, they’re rational in a way Moscow is not. Russia as a Chinese suzerainty is probably a better world configuration than Russia as a sovereign regional power. > find this general attitude of "Russia has no issues" that are going around on the internet quite confusing if pretty much every economic indicator says otherwise The sanctions’ goal was to cripple the Russian economy in a militarily-relevant way. On this they failed and that has been widely discussed. Folks might be extrapolating that discussion inappropriately.

reducesuffering 2y ago

The Russian Ruble is also starting to do very bad again: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=5Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=5Y

sedan_baklazhan 2y ago

>There's a reason why they closed off their stock market That's a completely false information. The stock market isn't closed.

dcrazy 2y ago
The post you are quoting did not say they closed the stock market. They said they “closed off” the stock market, which implies denying access to certain classes of investors. That said, I’m not finding anything about Russia prohibiting foreign investment, but I am finding a lot about sanctions prohibiting dollar and Euro investment in Russia.
- sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
  I have an investor account and I know for sure the stock market isn't closed.
  - jhugo 2y ago
    “Closed off” means “restricted access to”. It doesn’t mean “closed”. I have no idea what restrictions the parent was referring to, but they weren’t saying that the stock market shut down.
    - sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
      Perhaps you're right. English isn't my native language - thanks for explaining.
    - the_mitsuhiko 2y ago
      As a "westerner" you will need a Russian residence permit I think to trade. I at least would not know how you can actually buy something in MOEX as someone based in Europe.
Etheryte 2y ago
Foreigners are not allowed to sell on the Russian stock market from the Russian side [0] and they're generally not allowed to buy from the sanctions side. This means that as a foreign investor you're barred from trading in any useful meaning of the word. Buy and hold in the hopes that you might be able to maybe some day sell, whether that's in a year, ten years, or a hundred, is not really a viable strategy. That's also the reason why investment and asset management companies of all sizes are trying to find their exits from the Russian market, see for example Van Eck [1], just the latest addition in a long line of many: > Regulatory and market conditions do not currently permit the Funds to conduct transactions in the local Russian market. [0] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/limited-russian-stock-market-trading-resume-march-24-central-bank-says-2022-03-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/limited-russian-sto... [1] https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-equity/rsx-rsxj-liquidation-faq/ https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-equity/r...

hammock 2y ago

Good point. Worth noting that the Russian newspaper reporting this, Kommersant, is the most liberal/independent of the three business dailies in the country and is sort of the Babylon Bee of Russia, if the BB wasn’t satire: it spells its name with pre-Revolution Cyrillic and uses creative neologisms, wordplay, metaphors, and legally imposed euphemisms in its stories to maintain a degree of independence in periods of severe state censorship

ethbr1 2y ago

The point of modern sanctions is not that it makes import impossible (look at Russian circumvention for dual-use military technologies), but that it makes import at whole-economy scale more expensive and unreliable. And ultimately that's what imposes economic costs. It'll be curious how much of the gap is filled by substitute Chinese goods. (E.g. the domestic CFM-alternative engine projects [0]) With the wrinkle that Russia and China are united by their geopolitical opponents more than their friendship, and Xi doesn't seem thrilled about shackling the Chinese economy to the consequences of Russian war. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A

sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
Russia is a civilian aircraft producer. There's no need for Chinese airplanes (which they have troubles with).
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Russia is a civilian aircraft producer Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.) That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.
  - sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
    Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.
    - untech 2y ago
      [flagged]
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        “Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data.” https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

cen4 2y ago

The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> sanctions don't have a goal You missed the goal of sanctions on Russia? > MIL complex is on over drive This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine. > mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can This is wrong. It’s a resource-commitment problem. Not one of capabilities or confidence.
- the_mitsuhiko 2y ago
  > This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine. The Russian economy is doing "mixed". It's a war economy which can be propped up for quite a while but it has significant structural issues that will take years to repair. The country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership. I find this general attitude of "Russia has no issues" that are going around on the internet quite confusing if pretty much every economic indicator says otherwise. Let alone the fact that a meaningful part of the working population is fighting or left the country rather than engaging in the economy.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership It’s removing itself as a conventional threat to Europe for generations to come. And as much as Beijing is a rival to Washington, they’re rational in a way Moscow is not. Russia as a Chinese suzerainty is probably a better world configuration than Russia as a sovereign regional power. > find this general attitude of "Russia has no issues" that are going around on the internet quite confusing if pretty much every economic indicator says otherwise The sanctions’ goal was to cripple the Russian economy in a militarily-relevant way. On this they failed and that has been widely discussed. Folks might be extrapolating that discussion inappropriately.