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What concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation?

by roenxi 2y ago

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> What concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation? In reality? Publicly announce the U.S. will not honour Article V if Russia leaves un-annexed portions of Ukraine. Basically, America de facto leaves NATO and Russia leaves most of Ukraine. In exchange, Russia joins America against China and brings Pyongyang with them. (Also sanctions relief. Maybe also have Russia leave OPEC+.) If Trump weren't President, the concessions would be sanctions relief, recognition of Russia's pre-2022 claims on Ukrainian territory (subject to plebescite and compensation to Kyiv) and a treaty guarantee Ukraine wouldn't be admitted into NATO.
- roenxi 2y ago
  > Publicly announce the U.S. will not honour Article V if Russia leaves un-annexed portions of Ukraine. Basically, America de facto leaves NATO and Russia leaves most of Ukraine. When did the US make that offer? I missed it.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > When did the US make that offer? I missed it You asked "what concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation?" Not what concessions has the U.S. made. Russia isn't negotiating. Only fools negotiate against themselves.
    - roenxi 2y ago
      Russia's pre-war demands were less extreme than that, Wikipedia suggests [0] the Russians just wanted a de-facto pullback. Why do you think the US would have changed their stance? If they were willing to offer anything like that I doubt the war would have happened at all. This kinda goes to my main point. If the US was willing to do anything even a little bit like that at all, this could all have probably been avoided. You're suggesting a sane offer - I too think a sane offer would allow things to wind down fairly quickly. The issue is that after 3 years of war it is clear that the US is not willing to make a deal like that. Trump might be able to change that, I hope he can, but the odds seem stacked against him. He is in a key position buy doesn't have that much negotiating power; what you're suggesting looks to me like an unconditional US fold. Trump'd quite possibly end up in a lot of trouble. And there is no way it has been an option open to the Russians for the last 3 years. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_2021_ultimatum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_20...
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > Russia's pre-war demands were less extreme than that Than what? I gave two scenarios. The requirements "that NATO deploy no forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997," "any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, or Central Asia" and "a requirement that both side's nuclear weapons only be deployed on national territory" are non-starters across the board. They're the equivalent of requiring Russia withdraw entirely from Africa and the Middle East and stop selling weapons to India.
        roenxi 2y ago
        The US de-facto leaving NATO is a bigger concession than Russia asked for pre-war. Maybe do a little reset here to just one probable-case scenario? What concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation? I don't understand how you can suggest "America de facto leaves NATO" as an option but also commit to NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus. If the US de-facto is out of NATO it has no business in any of those places. Unless you mean de-facto the US stays in NATO and de-jure leaves it as some sort of fake concession. And requiring that everyone keeps nuclear missile deployments on their own territory is just common sense. We shouldn't need Russia to ask for the US to agree to that, everyone should start from that point. Forget a Russian ultimatum, the US should be doing that if it isn't already. If that is an unacceptable point I condemn the US for it and their pigheadedness, although I assume it is actually acceptable.
        kasey_junk 2y ago
        More than half of the US nuclear arsenal is submarine based. Its central to US strategic deterrence and has been for decades.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        So we’re ignoring that multiple pre-war demands by Moscow are obvious non-starters. Including for Moscow? > don't understand how you can suggest "America de facto leaves NATO" as an option but also commit to NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus I didn’t. Hypothetical versus reality. Normative versus positive. > requiring that everyone keeps nuclear missile deployments on their own territory is just common sense This is the sort of nonsense that gives countries like China and Russia the upper hand. Armchair generals in the voting public forgetting about SLBMs. Or the fact that Russia invaded Europe the last time it didn’t have a nuclear umbrella.
- IAmGraydon 2y ago
  >In reality? Publicly announce the U.S. will not honour Article V if Russia leaves un-annexed portions of Ukraine. Basically, America de facto leaves NATO and Russia leaves most of Ukraine. I want some of what this guy is smoking. If you think the US will ever offer to leave NATO, you aren't living in reality. Not going to happen, and specially not after the invasion of Ukraine.

What concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation?

by roenxi 2y ago

What concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation?

> What concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation? In reality? Publicly announce the U.S. will not honour Article V if Russia leaves un-annexed portions of Ukraine. Basically, America de facto leaves NATO and Russia leaves most of Ukraine. In exchange, Russia joins America against China and brings Pyongyang with them. (Also sanctions relief. Maybe also have Russia leave OPEC+.) If Trump weren't President, the concessions would be sanctions relief, recognition of Russia's pre-2022 claims on Ukrainian territory (subject to plebescite and compensation to Kyiv) and a treaty guarantee Ukraine wouldn't be admitted into NATO.

roenxi 2y ago
> Publicly announce the U.S. will not honour Article V if Russia leaves un-annexed portions of Ukraine. Basically, America de facto leaves NATO and Russia leaves most of Ukraine. When did the US make that offer? I missed it.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > When did the US make that offer? I missed it You asked "what concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation?" Not what concessions has the U.S. made. Russia isn't negotiating. Only fools negotiate against themselves.
  - roenxi 2y ago
    Russia's pre-war demands were less extreme than that, Wikipedia suggests [0] the Russians just wanted a de-facto pullback. Why do you think the US would have changed their stance? If they were willing to offer anything like that I doubt the war would have happened at all. This kinda goes to my main point. If the US was willing to do anything even a little bit like that at all, this could all have probably been avoided. You're suggesting a sane offer - I too think a sane offer would allow things to wind down fairly quickly. The issue is that after 3 years of war it is clear that the US is not willing to make a deal like that. Trump might be able to change that, I hope he can, but the odds seem stacked against him. He is in a key position buy doesn't have that much negotiating power; what you're suggesting looks to me like an unconditional US fold. Trump'd quite possibly end up in a lot of trouble. And there is no way it has been an option open to the Russians for the last 3 years. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_2021_ultimatum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_20...
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Russia's pre-war demands were less extreme than that Than what? I gave two scenarios. The requirements "that NATO deploy no forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997," "any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, or Central Asia" and "a requirement that both side's nuclear weapons only be deployed on national territory" are non-starters across the board. They're the equivalent of requiring Russia withdraw entirely from Africa and the Middle East and stop selling weapons to India.
      - roenxi 2y ago
        The US de-facto leaving NATO is a bigger concession than Russia asked for pre-war. Maybe do a little reset here to just one probable-case scenario? What concessions do you see the US making in a negotiation? I don't understand how you can suggest "America de facto leaves NATO" as an option but also commit to NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus. If the US de-facto is out of NATO it has no business in any of those places. Unless you mean de-facto the US stays in NATO and de-jure leaves it as some sort of fake concession. And requiring that everyone keeps nuclear missile deployments on their own territory is just common sense. We shouldn't need Russia to ask for the US to agree to that, everyone should start from that point. Forget a Russian ultimatum, the US should be doing that if it isn't already. If that is an unacceptable point I condemn the US for it and their pigheadedness, although I assume it is actually acceptable.
        kasey_junk 2y ago
        More than half of the US nuclear arsenal is submarine based. Its central to US strategic deterrence and has been for decades.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        So we’re ignoring that multiple pre-war demands by Moscow are obvious non-starters. Including for Moscow? > don't understand how you can suggest "America de facto leaves NATO" as an option but also commit to NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus I didn’t. Hypothetical versus reality. Normative versus positive. > requiring that everyone keeps nuclear missile deployments on their own territory is just common sense This is the sort of nonsense that gives countries like China and Russia the upper hand. Armchair generals in the voting public forgetting about SLBMs. Or the fact that Russia invaded Europe the last time it didn’t have a nuclear umbrella.
IAmGraydon 2y ago
>In reality? Publicly announce the U.S. will not honour Article V if Russia leaves un-annexed portions of Ukraine. Basically, America de facto leaves NATO and Russia leaves most of Ukraine. I want some of what this guy is smoking. If you think the US will ever offer to leave NATO, you aren't living in reality. Not going to happen, and specially not after the invasion of Ukraine.