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> the NE is suppose to get more rain with Climate Change. One of the biggest challenges with climate change is that it continually increases variance in the sy

> the NE is suppose to get more rain with Climate Change. One of the biggest challenges with climate change is that it continually increases variance in the system as warming increases. It's hard enough to correctly model a stable climate system, but modeling one that will be continuously changing for many human lifetimes is very hard. We're not headed to a "new normal", if we ('we' being life on this planet and human civilization) were we'd simply adapt to it, it would be costly, but survivable. But climate change will continue to cause radical and increasingly difficult to predict changes, and those changes themselves are subject to equally radical future transitions. This is why climate change is such a true crisis: it cannot be "adapted" to, because there is no stationary state we'll arrive at any time soon. Just look at Europe: the last few years it's been experience extreme heatwaves, but if the AMOC collapses (which it may, even in our life time) that will likely cause it to experience extreme cold. Even then the exact details of an event as extreme as the AMOC collapsing are hard to predict, and the AMOC collapsing is just one of countless other similarly extreme events we are going to be facing in coming decades.

jajko 2y ago
More chaos. Plus overall warming (which will ie rise ocean levels), which is again chaotic so it can even mean some local drops. I think for many this is the limit of how they can/want to understand whats inevitably coming. More info causes many to zone out, move it quickly to mumbo-jumbo and seek another dopamine hit or some other cheap empty fun. Like it or not, we need for regular Joe to care at least a bit and understand at least on surface why. If we wrap it in economy like many populists do, that battle is lost (which may be intentional on their part).
- morkalork 2y ago
  I dunno, the nihilism is creeping in. Why not buy that nice steak at the market today? The price of beef is only going to be higher next year. And so it goes.
  - defrost 2y ago
    Russia anticipates Siberia becoming cattle country and has been sending and supporting Russians to Texas to train as cowboys and take part in rodeos.
    - jmclnx 2y ago
      Russia just needs to hope China does not invade Siberia :) I kind of expect this to happen when the south part of China becomes uninhabitable due to warming. IIRC, China has 10x the number of people than Russia.
- itsoktocry 2y ago
  >More chaos. Is it your opinion that climate change is universally bad? Language like "more chaos" make it sound that way: whatever changes happen are bad. I can't imagine that's the case. Some things will certainly be bad, and some not so much.
  - idiotsecant 2y ago
    If, for example, you are a cockroach it'll probably be great! Humans, however, particularly in the modern world, are very dependant on all parts of a very complex system operating to enjoy the quality of life many readers on HN enjoy. An unceasing labyrinthine supply chain operates day and night with tendrils in a million other complex systems in order to make sure that you have food, water, medicine, law and order, HVAC, etc. We are an inch from chaos, moreso than any time in history. Substantial disruption to these systems will be poorly tolerated and could easily lead to the kind of lifestyle we haven't seen since we found out that sharpened sticks make for excellent negotiation devices.
  - vkou 2y ago
    If I go to your house, and start messing with your thermostat, as well as the internal temperature sensors for your fridge and freezer, would you say that's fine, because some of the changes are not bad? Surely, you wouldn't mind your freezer warming to above freezing every other Tuesday? That change may be bad, but some of the other changes I'll make might be good... Our societies optimize around climate bands, be it in agriculture, housing, transportation, etc. The benefit of having temperatures and weather swinging in a 'good' direction half the time will be more than offset by them swinging in a 'bad' direction even a fraction of the time. The PNW might not mind a 60 degree winter (it's better than a 50 degree one, except for the pine beetle eating all of its lumber because the winters aren't cold enough to kill it, but that ship has sailed years ago), but it sure as hell will mind 100 degree highs in the summer (which are much worse than 90 degree ones). The last time one happened in 2021, over a thousand people died. And on the agricultural front: It takes three months to grow our food crops, but it only takes one bad weekend to ruin a harvest. Luckily, I'll probably be dead before the worst of this will existentially affect me. Your kids will be the ones who will have to sort out the mess that people currently upset over $4 eggs are making. Bon appetit!
guerrilla 2y ago
Of course it can be adapted to, just not for all species, possibly including our own.
dxbydt 2y ago
> it continually increases variance in the system as warming increases This is strictly false. A consistent warming trend reduces the occurrence of extreme cold events. This will narrow the range of temperature fluctuations, which directly reduces the time derivative of temperature variance. Also, oceans redistribute heat more efficiently due to climate change. This causes the temperature gradients between regions to weaken. Once again the time derivative of temperature variance is reduced. Empirically, one can observe this decrease in temperature variance in the tropics.
valval 2y ago
Just give my party more power and resources and we’ll take care of it.

jajko 2y ago

More chaos. Plus overall warming (which will ie rise ocean levels), which is again chaotic so it can even mean some local drops. I think for many this is the limit of how they can/want to understand whats inevitably coming. More info causes many to zone out, move it quickly to mumbo-jumbo and seek another dopamine hit or some other cheap empty fun. Like it or not, we need for regular Joe to care at least a bit and understand at least on surface why. If we wrap it in economy like many populists do, that battle is lost (which may be intentional on their part).

morkalork 2y ago
I dunno, the nihilism is creeping in. Why not buy that nice steak at the market today? The price of beef is only going to be higher next year. And so it goes.
- defrost 2y ago
  Russia anticipates Siberia becoming cattle country and has been sending and supporting Russians to Texas to train as cowboys and take part in rodeos.
  - jmclnx 2y ago
    Russia just needs to hope China does not invade Siberia :) I kind of expect this to happen when the south part of China becomes uninhabitable due to warming. IIRC, China has 10x the number of people than Russia.
itsoktocry 2y ago
>More chaos. Is it your opinion that climate change is universally bad? Language like "more chaos" make it sound that way: whatever changes happen are bad. I can't imagine that's the case. Some things will certainly be bad, and some not so much.
- idiotsecant 2y ago
  If, for example, you are a cockroach it'll probably be great! Humans, however, particularly in the modern world, are very dependant on all parts of a very complex system operating to enjoy the quality of life many readers on HN enjoy. An unceasing labyrinthine supply chain operates day and night with tendrils in a million other complex systems in order to make sure that you have food, water, medicine, law and order, HVAC, etc. We are an inch from chaos, moreso than any time in history. Substantial disruption to these systems will be poorly tolerated and could easily lead to the kind of lifestyle we haven't seen since we found out that sharpened sticks make for excellent negotiation devices.
- vkou 2y ago
  If I go to your house, and start messing with your thermostat, as well as the internal temperature sensors for your fridge and freezer, would you say that's fine, because some of the changes are not bad? Surely, you wouldn't mind your freezer warming to above freezing every other Tuesday? That change may be bad, but some of the other changes I'll make might be good... Our societies optimize around climate bands, be it in agriculture, housing, transportation, etc. The benefit of having temperatures and weather swinging in a 'good' direction half the time will be more than offset by them swinging in a 'bad' direction even a fraction of the time. The PNW might not mind a 60 degree winter (it's better than a 50 degree one, except for the pine beetle eating all of its lumber because the winters aren't cold enough to kill it, but that ship has sailed years ago), but it sure as hell will mind 100 degree highs in the summer (which are much worse than 90 degree ones). The last time one happened in 2021, over a thousand people died. And on the agricultural front: It takes three months to grow our food crops, but it only takes one bad weekend to ruin a harvest. Luckily, I'll probably be dead before the worst of this will existentially affect me. Your kids will be the ones who will have to sort out the mess that people currently upset over $4 eggs are making. Bon appetit!

guerrilla 2y ago

Of course it can be adapted to, just not for all species, possibly including our own.

dxbydt 2y ago

> it continually increases variance in the system as warming increases This is strictly false. A consistent warming trend reduces the occurrence of extreme cold events. This will narrow the range of temperature fluctuations, which directly reduces the time derivative of temperature variance. Also, oceans redistribute heat more efficiently due to climate change. This causes the temperature gradients between regions to weaken. Once again the time derivative of temperature variance is reduced. Empirically, one can observe this decrease in temperature variance in the tropics.

valval 2y ago

Just give my party more power and resources and we’ll take care of it.