9 ms·

When Trump becomes President next year he is expected to demand that Ukraine settle the war with Russia or risk losing US aid and military support. It is why Ru

• paganel 2y ago
  Russia will not stop taking its land in Kursk back because the Americans tell them to do so, this is just Western delusion, and, as I've said before on this forum, a complete misunderstanding coming from the Westerners on how Russia operates. > devastating sanctions Devastating for Europe, you mean.
  • deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  • raverbashing 2y ago
    Neither will Ukraine try to take their territory back as much as sycophants and dictator-appeasers think Ukraine have no agency
  • suraci 2y ago
    I'm very curious, can any European here, or perhaps a German for specificity, tell me whether they believe these sanctions have harmed Russia more than Europe? Also it would be better if any Russians here could answer a similar question
    • EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
      These consumer side sanctions are idiotic. When a Russian buys a European beer, he spends money which goes from Russia to Europe, and in addition he damages his health. On the other side, Europe buys billions of dollars of oil and gas from Russia. That money goes in the opposite direction, from Europe to Russia, and is used toward soldier salaries, Iran drones and North Korean mercenaries.
      • viraptor 2y ago
        Has this been a recent change? In 2023 NL announced they're not dependent on Russian energy anymore https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/10/netherlands-longer-dependent-russian-fuels-says-energy-minister https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/10/netherlands-longer-dependent-r...
        • EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
          $1.7b in August 2024 + $2.3B exports to Turkey, much of which is just transshipment to Europe. https://energyandcleanair.org/august-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ https://energyandcleanair.org/august-2024-monthly-analysis-o...
        • EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
          Maybe true for the Netherlands, I apologize, I meant all of EU.
    • brazzy 2y ago
      German here. Yes, it seems pretty obvious these sanctions have harmed Russia more than Europe. Russia: inflation around 8-9%. EU: inflation around 2%.
      • EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
        That's not a result of sanction, simply Russia spends 40% of its budget on the war, and Europe spends nothing.
      • suraci 2y ago
        Thank you for the information. I believe that only those who are there can truly describe the situation there, beyond what I read in the media Recently, a professor I know wrote an article about his impressions of Russia and Germany when he attended meetings in both countries. Can you help to check what he said? > Macroeconomic data indicates that the European economy is not doing well, but the economic conditions I experienced during my days in Berlin could be described as depression. What surprised me the most was that there were not many people or cars on the streets of Berlin during the daytime on weekdays. Berlin in early October is not yet cold, but the desolate feeling on the streets does not match the image of the capital of Europe's largest economy. Europe's inflation, which started later than in the United States, has also clearly hurt the lives of the people, which was my perception from conversations with taxi drivers during my rides.
        • suraci 2y ago
          Also, here's the sections about Russia, hope any locals can help to check this > (In Vladivostok) War typically leads to a rise in prices. Several Russian sources have reported that compared to two and a half years ago, current prices have roughly doubled, and housing prices have also increased significantly. However, it is somewhat comforting that the wages of most people have also increased proportionally, so people's lives have not been greatly affected so far. The supply of goods on the market is still quite abundant. Due to financial sanctions from the US and Europe, as well as multinational corporations, many brands' products and services are no longer available in the Russian market. Nevertheless, this does not prevent Russian citizens from drinking cola or eating American fast food. It is said that these brands have localized, but the products remain essentially unchanged: for example, the taste of Russian cola is not significantly different from Coca-Cola, as they can purchase the concentrate from third countries and mix it themselves. > The official unemployment rate published by Russia is only 2%, and I believe this data is likely accurate. The reasons are not only because the war itself requires the hiring of a large number of young people, but also due to the wealth redistribution, increased consumption, and robust production that the war has brought about. Russia is a country with severe wealth disparity, where the lower classes traditionally lack money for consumption. This war has provided an opportunity for lower-income families to obtain cash flow: by sending their sons or husbands to the battlefield, families can receive a one-time subsidy of nearly 500,000 yuan. Even prisoners in jail can receive this benefit. This sum of money, equivalent to targeted transfer payments and proactive fiscal policies aimed at the poor, has given lower- and middle-income families a chance to gamble their lives for money. This has led to cases where some people join the military to escape punishment and receive subsidies, serve for a year, return home, and then reoffend and go to jail again, relying on a second enlistment to escape punishment and receive another subsidy. > The increased cash flow among the lower-income population has led to a surge in consumer demand, and the robust production of military goods has also stimulated employment, income, and consumption. While the products of military industry are indeed consumed on the battlefield, for the macroeconomy, what matters is the flow rather than the stock; production and consumption are meaningful in themselves. As for whether the produced goods are expended as shells and missiles on the battlefield or become paper wealth on the other side of the ocean as export commodities, there is no fundamental difference for the current macroeconomic operation. There are rumors circulating on Chinese self-media about how much the ruble has depreciated on the black market in Russia. I specifically went to restaurants and other consumer venues in Vladivostok to test for any significant difference between the official and black market exchange rates by using US dollars and Chinese yuan for payment. However, neither Russian-run nor Chinese-run restaurants offered discounts for payment in US dollars or Chinese yuan cash. This phenomenon is usually sufficient to debunk rumors about the Russian ruble black market. The current social mood in Russia is relatively stable, which may be due not only to a decent economic foundation but also to strict control over public opinion. According to our research feedback, even in private settings, if colleagues or neighbors make remarks against Putin or the war, and are reported, those who oppose the war or Putin may face legal troubles.
    • rksbank 2y ago
      As a European, I can say that the sanctions did harm European economies, which is reflected in various political Eu government crises. It is hard to know how much Russia has been harmed, because both sides probably exaggerate the figures. I wonder whether "more harm" is the right question. The question should be whether the sanctions have any impact on Russia's war economy, which they do not. If anything, they make Russia more independent and strengthen Russian ties with China and India. This is all to the detriment of the EU, the only one here who profits is the U.S. by making the EU more dependent.
      • sekai 2y ago
        > It is hard to know how much Russia has been harmed, because both sides probably exaggerate the figures. > The question should be whether the sanctions have any impact on Russia's war economy, which they do not Ruble is below a single penny. Interest rates are at 21%, highest since 2003. Inflation is out of control. > they make Russia more independent and strengthen Russian ties with China and India. ah, so that's why Putin went to North Korea to beg for troops and ammunition?
        • thalsand 2y ago
          According to the IWF, 2024 inflation is 7.9% and GDP growth 3.6%: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS Germany has 2.4% inflation and 0% growth: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DEU https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DEU I do not believe the German inflation numbers. Health care got 30% more expensive with more hikes coming, rents are exploding, groceries are 20% higher since 2022.
          • KingOfCoders 2y ago
            My healthcare has not gotten up 30%. From my recent visits to Lidl, groceries have massively fallen in price. Last year my shopping bill was ~70 EUR, yesterday and the weeks before it is around ~50 EUR. I'd even say groceries are cheaper than before (eggs, oatmeal, apples,...). Energy prices in Germany with my provider have dropped two times in a row and I got a letter this week announcing a new drop in prices on the 1st of January 2025. The only thing that is too expensive is Döner. And here, several shops have closed to be replaced by new ones with lower prices, now that groceries (also frying oil) and energy are cheaper again. I don't know about the Russian GDP, one would assume the growth is mostly from increasing weapon production and from replacing Western imports with in-country production. I don't think Russia is spontanously more productive. Both do not make life easier for people.
    • haccount 2y ago
      [dead]
• chinathrow 2y ago
  It would be so nice to not be dragged into this war by the aggressor. Russia is playing a very stupid game here.
  • mschuster91 2y ago
    > Russia is playing a very stupid game here. They are not, if you take the larger context into account - and that is China and their saber rattling not just against Taiwan but also against everyone else in what China thinks is "their" influence sphere such as the Philippines. Russia's warmongering (not just in Ukraine, but also via Syria, Iran and Yemen!) is breaking apart both the US and EU internally - recent elections have shown that both populations are pretty much fed up with the wars and their consequences, and once enough countries either fall to Putin's 5th column outright or their governments pull a Chamberlain, China can be relatively certain no one will intervene too much when they decide that now is the best time to annex other countries.
    • chinathrow 2y ago
      Sure, but I am commenting from a non-military, non-geopolitics, non-strategy related background: It's a stupid game. Stupid in the sense of: I don't like it, I don't want to play it, thus it's stupid.
    • throwawaymaths 2y ago
      Well the result of China's 5d chess has been to install a leader in the US that is likely to escalate a trade war with china when with an impending demographic crisis they most need someone to stop the trade war. Sheer genius!
      • mschuster91 2y ago
        The problem with dictators of all kinds is that their personal concerns (say, appearing before the local populace as "the one who re-unified China") can and will trump over what makes sense for the country long-term. Of course that can and does also happen in democracies, but at least most reasonable democracies have some sort of "checks and balances" that at least prevents open war from breaking out.
• jacknews 2y ago
  [flagged]
  • Symbiote 2y ago
    The USA, UK and France approving the use of the long-range missiles was described as a response to Russia using North Korean soldiers.
    • jacknews 2y ago
      A fair point, but described by who? And was this just a post-hoc justification, or had the western powers declared that they would retaliate if Russia involved other armies? In any case, surely the 'punishment' should be directed at North Korea?
      • ethbr1 2y ago
        Why should it be directed at North Korea? North Korean troops are helping Russia invade Ukraine (by freeing up Russian garrison troops to participate in their offensive). Ergo, redress is something that helps Ukraine resist the military advantage North Korean involvement gives Russia -- e.g. being able to target Russian military targets supporting the invasion, in Russia.
      • dragonwriter 2y ago
        > In any case, surely the 'punishment' should be directed at North Korea? The problem is at least as much Russia inviting NK as North Korea positively responding, aiding Ukraine works against all the belligerents aligned against it, NK as well as Russia, and the North Koreans in Russia are not protected by the Armistice the way North Koreans on the Korean peninsula are.
    • no_exit 2y ago
      North Korean soldiers that mysteriously have yet to materialize in a fashion that isn't blatant propaganda.
  • ethbr1 2y ago
• ssijak 2y ago
  "If the EU decides to support Ukraine then because of the devastating sanctions there is a strong chance Russia loses." How did that not work then yet?
  • justin66 2y ago
    They question you're really asking is "why is the war taking so long?" Because it's a war.
    • sabbaticaldev 2y ago
      look, if someone looks like they are losing a war in the beginning, middle and the end act of it, I wouldn’t have much faith that extending it is the best solution to finally win.
      • llamaimperative 2y ago
        Tautological The Nazis were mopping the floor with Europe until they weren’t. The Japanese were conquering Asia until they weren’t.
        • lukan 2y ago
          But obligatory reminder, that back then there were no nukes. So it is not exactly the same situation.
          • actionfromafar 2y ago
            Neither is now the situation exactly that having nukes, means you can tell everyone to back down and do exactly as you say or else.
          • llamaimperative 2y ago
            Eh, MAD brings us back to equilibrium. It's a significantly more dangerous equilibrium, for sure, but we should be much more afraid of a nuclear accident (not reactor meltdowns but accidental weapon launch) than of purposeful use of a nuclear weapon.
• diggan 2y ago
  > If the EU decides to join the US the war is over and Russia will keep the occupied lands. As a European, I'd say there is just about 0 chance of the EU unilaterally supporting Russian taken any occupied areas to themselves and Ukraine surrendering. Not only would it signal to Russia that they can take European land without consequences, but public opinion is very much against any sort of cessation of defenses. In my ~30 years I've never seen as strong NATO support from the common man in countries like Sweden and Spain as there is today.
  • bananapub 2y ago
    > As a European, I'd say there is just about 0 chance of the EU unilaterally supporting Russian taken any occupied areas to themselves I agree, but it's not about accepting or saying it's a good idea, it's about whether European countries can replace the US support enough that Ukraine can reasonably keep defending themselves.
    • diggan 2y ago
      I don't know if EU would be able to match the current support the US gives to Ukraine (maybe it already does? Or maybe it exceeds? I don't know either way) but what I'm sure off is that Europe won't stop trying even if it wouldn't be enough.
      • sabbaticaldev 2y ago
        how sure are you? I think the economic struggles + losing US support would make every incumbent leader lose their jobs until UE is full of Trump supporters
        • diggan 2y ago
          Fairly confident, at least for the countries I frequent and have friends in. As an example, public opinion of NATO in Sweden was really negative up until ~2013 (Crimea occupation) where it kind of was equally positive/negative and then fast forward to today where it's at 64% positive. https://www.gu.se/en/news/opinion-on-nato-record-shift-between-2021-and-2022 https://www.gu.se/en/news/opinion-on-nato-record-shift-betwe... Being a Swede myself, and knowing how apathetic Swedish people are about basically anything, something having that large of support is pretty uncommon and signal a strong will to make NATO and EU defenses stronger, if anything. Even people I know who been historically anti-"anything military" in the country have quickly turned into "We need to defend our Nordic brothers and sisters against the Russians" which kind of took me by surprise. > UE is full of Trump supporters That won't ever happen. Even right-wingers (Europe right, not US right) are laughing at Trump and the Republicans.
• danielovichdk 2y ago
  Would be an economical win for Europe if the US drew their aid. The amount of money needed to be spent in military aid across Europe would create markets within the region that would in the longer run create good wealth. Alone from that reason, USA will not pull their aid. USA cannot afford losing Europe as an arms client
• pvaldes 2y ago
  > So it's in Russia's interest to make life as difficult as possible for Europe over the coming months Unsurprisingly this week after Macron speech, "French" farmers decided to organize again on groups directed by leaders and block and destroy Spanish cargo trucks at the frontier, without any policemen to be found at place. Is obvious that somebody is trying again the old trick to confront and divide in the EU. We had seen the same before in Poland, etc. But a trick overused can became counterproductive. I'm sure that Macron and other in EU can sum deux and deux and understand that surrender is not an option anymore. Is not just Ukraine but also their own political survival what is at stake. If they let this agents roam free and grow, they will lose gradually the power.