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What are some concrete reasons why someone would want to damage these cables? Who benefits?
by spongebobstoes 2y ago
What are some concrete reasons why someone would want to damage these cables? Who benefits?
- Mistletoe 2y agoIt doesn’t even really stop anything right? Communications just have to route around it and use other cables and satellites. It just seems like Russia wants to be annoying.
- Hamuko 2y agoDestroying the gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland did take it out for like six months. I think it may have had some negative impact on Estonian electricity prices during that time.
- pvaldes 2y agoCould this disturb crypto operations in any way?
- Mistletoe 2y agoNot really. If the internet works, sending and using crypto works and it doesn’t use much bandwidth.
- threeseed 2y agoWhen Trump becomes President next year he is expected to demand that Ukraine settle the war with Russia or risk losing US aid and military support. It is why Russia is throwing everything at re-taking Kursk and US is now allowing long range strikes. If the EU decides to join the US the war is over and Russia will keep the occupied lands. If the EU decides to support Ukraine then because of the devastating sanctions there is a strong chance Russia loses. So it's in Russia's interest to make life as difficult as possible for Europe over the coming months in order to convince them that ending the war is in their best interest.
- paganel 2y agoRussia will not stop taking its land in Kursk back because the Americans tell them to do so, this is just Western delusion, and, as I've said before on this forum, a complete misunderstanding coming from the Westerners on how Russia operates. > devastating sanctions Devastating for Europe, you mean.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- raverbashing 2y agoNeither will Ukraine try to take their territory back as much as sycophants and dictator-appeasers think Ukraine have no agency
- suraci 2y agoI'm very curious, can any European here, or perhaps a German for specificity, tell me whether they believe these sanctions have harmed Russia more than Europe? Also it would be better if any Russians here could answer a similar question
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y agoThese consumer side sanctions are idiotic. When a Russian buys a European beer, he spends money which goes from Russia to Europe, and in addition he damages his health. On the other side, Europe buys billions of dollars of oil and gas from Russia. That money goes in the opposite direction, from Europe to Russia, and is used toward soldier salaries, Iran drones and North Korean mercenaries.
- viraptor 2y agoHas this been a recent change? In 2023 NL announced they're not dependent on Russian energy anymore https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/10/netherlands-longer-dependent-russian-fuels-says-energy-minister https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/10/netherlands-longer-dependent-r...
- flohofwoe 2y agoAssuming it was intentional, just trying the waters. Testing what the response is, who actually responds versus who's willing to sweep the incident under the carpet, how hard any response is and how quickly it happens, how much of the internet infrastructure is affected for how long, etc... etc... that's a lot of useful information as preparation for an actual attack.
- eric-hu 2y agoThis is really interesting how you’ve explained it. In many professional fights the competitors start matches with light, quick jabs to probe their opponents defense. This feels just like that now that you put it this way. I never connected those dots though.
- diggan 2y agoMaybe it's because I'm Swedish and we've experienced Russia's "probing defenses" tactic for a very long time (mainly "breaking" into Swedish airspace with airplanes, and discovering submarines at the Swedish shores), but I always thought this was common knowledge, always interesting to learn it isn't for everyone :)
- lifestyleguru 2y agoThe situation escalated beyond probing, this is tit for tat response for Ukraine getting and launching US tactical missiles. Russia seems to be now aggressively monitoring and raiding the submarine pipes and cables. Blowing up of Nord Stream made Russia go ballistic.
- diggan 2y ago> The situation escalated beyond probing Not sure we understand "probing" differently. Russian currently is at the edges, testing the responses from things like cutting cables and otherwise interfering with the infrastructure. This is what "probing" means for me. "Beyond probing" would be actually launching attacks one way or another, which we haven't seen yet (except of course, for the Ukraine invasion).
- wqefjwpokef 2y ago[dead]
- krisbolton 2y agoWhile not directly addressing undersea cable sabotage this is a comprehensive open access article with case studies on 'hybrid warfare' which provides context to these types of actions. 'Shadows of power beneath the threshold: where covert action, organized crime and irregular warfare converge' - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2024.2417454 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2024.2...
- lifestyleguru 2y agoThis is basically Russian retaliation for US providing Ukraine with ATACMS and first Ukrainian attack using ATACMS.
- tauntz 2y agoThe "retaliation" against US is to disrupt communications between.. Finland and Germany? Applying the same logic, Ukraine should retaliate against Russia for bombing their hospitals with an attack on.. Iranian civilian infrastructure? Did I get that right?
- lifestyleguru 2y agoRussia is fighting "Western fascists" and NATO. Don't try to understand this.
- aguaviva 2y agoRussia's regime pretends to be fighting those entities. It's real enemy is simply independent Ukraine with its currently recognized borders. This is entirely straighforward. Nothing that requires any struggle to understand.
- benterix 2y agoThe ship was sailing from Russia and the captain is Russian. Using a Chinese ship is a good trick from Putin. As for the core of your question: there is no benefit, it's just his mentality. "The West" supports Ukraine so let's just do some harm, retaliate in some way. Burn some buildings here and there, plants some inflammable materials on airplanes etc. Pointless for you and me, meaningful for that guy.
- viraptor 2y agoDoes "Chinese ship" really mean anything here? As far as I understand the ship official registration is a very vague concept https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience
- emmelaich 2y agoand according this tweet https://x.com/erikkannike/status/1858883945607094541/history https://x.com/erikkannike/status/1858883945607094541/history "So - according to Russian federal port records, the Chinese ship suspected of cutting the communications cables in the Baltic Sea was captained by a Russian citizen (one Stechentsev A.E.). Interestingly Yui Peng 3 was only transferred to its current owner in China earlier this month. The ship is carrying goods/oil from Ust-Luga in Russia, to Port Said in Egypt. Same captain also comandeered URSUS ARCTOS also carrying goods from Ust-Luga to Egypt. Mapped using @SensusQ . "
- pvaldes 2y agoUrsus arctos, the scientific name of the brown bear. The name of that ship can't be more Russian LOL
- bluGill 2y agoHard to say. They will claim this is only Flag of convenience as they are caught. However China still has the opportunity to say that this is something for their law enforcement to take care of not international, and then give the captain "a slap on the wrist". What we don't know is if China knew they were going to try this beforehand or not. Flag of Convenience is common enough that we can't be sure. This could have been planned on the high level from China and we would never know - something conspiracy theorists will run with! If China knew they would probably give the crew a sever punishment, but unofficially it is for getting caught and not doing the act. Most likely though China didn't know before hand.
- aguaviva 2y agoTit-for-tat response to the NS2 bombing. Assuming it bears out that the Russian state is the perpetrator.
- nabla9 2y agoRussia wants to end NATO without going to war with NATO. NATO's political unity and ability to respond is tested with these attacks. Russia does them one after another gradually escalating. Russia maintains plausible deniability or does so small operations that they can always walk them back. Eventually, some country invokes Article 4 or 5 consultations. Russia hopes that US, Hungary, or Germany waters down NATO response. The conflict continues, but between individual countries not under NATO. NATOs as a organization may continue, but raison d'être is gone.
- dylan604 2y agoRussia and these NATO countries being probed are like the two siblings in the back seat. Mom, he's touching me. Stop touching your brother. Mom, he's holding his finger right next to me. Dad eventually says, don't make me pull this car over and start a global thermonuclear war
- callc 2y agoHumorous yet concerning that our governments act like children.
- wbl 2y agoExcept its always Russia instigating. We never sent someone to look at the spire of Saint Basil (the pathetic excuse offered for explaining the presence of GRU officers in Salisbury carrying out chemical warfare), or really struck at their weak points.
- huijzer 2y agoProf. Stephen Kotkin — an historian who wrote multiple extensive biographies on Stalin — calls the Russian regime a "gangster regime".* Once you see them as gangsters, it's not difficult to see why they would do this. *A full link with exact timestamp of Kotkin saying this is [1]. Here he talks about why Merkel kept making oil deals with Putin even though in hindsight this was probably not the best idea. Kotkin argues that, yes, according to econ 101 trade is good for both parties, but not when the opposite party is a gangster. Merkel thought that Putin was thinking like her, but he wasn't. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/live/jJSDdCPpbto?t=4410 https://www.youtube.com/live/jJSDdCPpbto?t=4410
- mopsi 2y agoIt should be noted that Putin was personally an enforcer for St Petersburg's mayor Anatoly Sobchak[1] in the early 1990s, and his "circle of friends" from that time now mans key positions of the entire government. For example, Viktor Zolotov[2], Sobchak's bodyguard and Putin's judo partner, is now in charge of National Guard, despite not having qualifications for the job. Russia is literally run buy thugs who ran protection rackets not so long ago. So there's much more to this than just a fitting figure of speech. Someone from the worst parts of LA would be better equipped to understand and deal with such people than those who spent their teens and early adulthood playing Model UN at a foreign relations club. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Zolotov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Zolotov
- euroderf 2y agoOne theme of cyberpunk is that Russia remains a gangster regime in the future. William Gibson's "Kombinat".
- mmooss 2y agoLook up 'Grey Zone Conflict': Destroying another country's assets is generally an act of war, but obviously this incident falls short of causing a war. That is the 'grey zone', a prominent feature of current international relations and a major focus of the defense of the democratic world and international order, including in the US military. The international order is often called the 'US-led rules-based interntional order'. Russia, China, and some others dislike the first element, of course. The second element refers to the legal, rules-based structure (rather than power-based anarchy, which led to the centuries or millennia of war before the 'order' was created post-WWII). Aggressive international warfare is outlawed, for example; if France and Germany have a dispute, there is no question of violence - they use a legal structure to resolve it, which wasn't always true! Grey zone activities accomplish illegal things without reprocussions. And therefore they also serve the goal of undermining the international order by demonstrating its powerlessness in these situations. In some ways, it's like trolling. Russia uses grey zone tactics heavily - for example, they used them to capture Crimea (which was before the clear act of war, their 2022 invasion). They use them to run destabilizing 'grey zone' campaigns throughout the world, including directly interfering in elections. The tactics suit Russia in particular because they cannot compete miltarily with the democratic world. China uses them too, for example using their 'coast guard' and 'civilian' 'fishing boats' to attack (up to a point) and intimidate ships from other countries in the South China Sea. If China used their navy, it would possibly be acts of war. A Chinese coast guard ship shooting water cannon at a fishing boat, though illegal in international waters, isn't going to start a war. 'Civilian' 'fishing' boats from China blockading access to a reef won't either. Edit: Before you look at Russia and China and other Grey Zone actors as miscreants, understand that it's just the normal behavior of 'revisionist' powers - those who want to change the current rules. The current rules serve the interests of the 'status quo' powers, who get all self-righteous about 'illegal' activities. In a more common situation on HN, think of IP outsiders, who break the 'rules' made by major IP holders, such as DMCA or those extending copyright for decades or restricting access to scientific knowledge - the IP holders want the status quo and call violations 'theft' and the outsiders 'criminals', etc. If the US wasn't a status quo power, they'd be doing grey zone things. (That doesn't at all justify Russia and China's goals of stealing land, oppressing people's freedoms, and solving problems through violence.)
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- toast0 2y agoOk there's all the signalling between states that breaking a cable has. That also works for false flag operations, or true flag operations while making it look like a false flag operation (etc). But also, cutting these cables doesn't stop communications. There are other land and undersea routes, and maybe terrestrial radio/satellite routes as well. You might damage these cables so that communications travel other routes which are more observable (or less observable). Or you might damage these cables so you can modify them elsewhere to enhance observability before they're repaired (or as part of the repair process). Or it could be a training mission for your elite squad of cable biting sharks. Lots of potential for intrigue here.
- rasz 2y agoNewnew shipping signed huge contract with Rosatom.