4 ms·
I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered. Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn
by baxtr 2y ago
I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered.
Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?"
"Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work.
A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.
- floren 2y ago> Kirk: Mr. Scott. Have you always multiplied your repair estimates by a factor of four? > Scotty: Certainly, sir. How else can I keep my reputation as a miracle worker?
- dhosek 2y agoThere’s a whole generation of developers who have internalized this.
- ikiris 2y agoThere’s a whole generation of management who have caused this due to their own behavior.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- dtgriscom 2y agoMy rule: list all the tasks, estimate times for each task, add up all the estimates, and multiply the results by π. If you're using unknown technology, use π^2.
- EasyMark 2y agoI do something similar but I use the Indiana version of 3.2 https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/30214/new-math-time-indiana-tried-change-pi-32 https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/30214/new-math-time-indi...
- darekkay 2y ago> the first number you put out will be remembered This is called anchoring effect, a psychological bias.
- robocat 2y agoI think you meant "anchoring bias": https://www.scribbr.com/research-bias/anchoring-bias/ https://www.scribbr.com/research-bias/anchoring-bias/ Anchoring effect is something related but subltley different: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring_effect
- kgwgk 2y agoIs it? If you visit https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Anchoring_bias https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Anch... and follow the first link labeled Main article: Anchoring (cognitive bias) you may be surprised. Actually, you may also read the first link you sent and be equally surprised: Anchoring bias (also known as anchoring heuristic or anchoring effect) https://www.scribbr.com/research-bias/anchoring-bias/#what https://www.scribbr.com/research-bias/anchoring-bias/#what
- vander_elst 2y agoMy method is take an educated guess multiply by 2 add 1 as extra buffer and then change it to the next unit, e.g. day->week, week->month, months->quarter. So for something that it should take 1 day I'd say 3 weeks. It seems a lot but at the end there's usually so much red tape, burocracy and and technical debt that it usually ends in the latter ballpark.