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So what's the solution ? Assign a surveillance UAV to every Russian ship parked "without a good reason" over a cable ? It would be expensive, but doable, and cr

So what's the solution ? Assign a surveillance UAV to every Russian ship parked "without a good reason" over a cable ? It would be expensive, but doable, and create a reserve of vehicles for wartime use.

lxgr 2y ago
That sounds borderline feasible – in a world where submarines don't exist.
- andy_ppp 2y ago
  I’m certain the sea is as mapped as you can possibly imagine, cutting say 50% of cables would lead to a lot of Russian ships sinking and a ban on them entering western waters. Their equipment is absolutely shit compared to ours and we know exactly where it all is. Surely they have been told this is a declaration of war which clearly they are scared of too.
  - willvarfar 2y ago
    The russians have been investing heavily and have some very good kit http://www.hisutton.com/Yantar.html http://www.hisutton.com/Yantar.html http://www.hisutton.com/Belgorod-Class-Submarine.html http://www.hisutton.com/Belgorod-Class-Submarine.html http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Spy-Submarine-BS-64e.html http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Spy-Submarine-BS-64e.html and so on
regnull 2y ago
The solution is to project strength and hit them where they don't expect. You are dealing with a thug, not a cost/benefit accountant, as Obama seemed to mistakenly believe. As long as they do things and we respond, nothing good will happen. They have already calculated the response and found it acceptable. Instead of this, go to the mattresses. Oh, your bridge has suddenly exploded? Shame.
- petre 2y ago
  "We" already screwed their pipeline, what's left? Provide Ukraine with the means to blow up the Kerch bridge maybe? They're the ones that could legitimately do that sort of escalation.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > what's left? The other pipelines. Their shadow oil fleet. There are lots of options. But to my knowledge, only the British, French and Americans are capable of the long-range clandestine operations.
    - petre 2y ago
      Their shadow oil fleet is operated by third parties and shell companies. We are dealing with a mafia state here. https://windward.ai/knowledge-base/illuminating-russias-shadow-fleet/ https://windward.ai/knowledge-base/illuminating-russias-shad...
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > Their shadow oil fleet is operated by third parties and shell companies Would be a shame if they started having engine troubles in the middle of the ocean.
        libertine 2y ago
        The "problem" of Western countries is that the political sphere operates under different moral compasses: like taking down a shadow fleet tanker would be a natural disaster... taking down many would mean many disasters. The real question is, should security and defense concerns be placed on hold? If our basic freedoms and rights are being attacked, how big of a deal would be a shadow fleet tanker catastrophe?
        toomuchtodo 2y ago
Hamuko 2y ago
According to CNN reporting, the US is already keeping track of Russian ships near critical submarine infrastructure. Chances are that they already have a prime suspect as to what ship or ships have been engaged in this. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/us-sees-increasing-risk-of-russian-sabotage-undersea-cables/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/us-sees-increasi...
Wytwwww 2y ago
Why would they use a Russian flagged ship for that?
- XorNot 2y ago
  It's harder to get false identification then people on the internet think. But also the Russian MO has never been to do things where it's not obvious they did it: the spate of critics of the Russian government dying by falling out of windows isn't because they lack creativity in assassinating people.
  - Wytwwww 2y ago
    You don't need false documents, buying and operating a ship that has no direct ties to Russia and is registered at an other country isn't that hard at all. Of course yeah, if suddenly if cables get cut 10x more often that they used to it be pretty obvious who is behind it regardless. > has never been to do things where it's not obvious they did They could still shot them or something like that, the window thing still grants them some plausible deniability. e.g. the ship that (unclear if intentionally) damaged the cables last year was Chinese.
    - XorNot 2y ago
      > You don't need false documents, buying and operating a ship that has no direct ties to Russia and is registered at an other country isn't that hard at all You literally just described a program of falsifying documents! If you're buying and operating a ship, then to have "no ties to Russia" while using Russian money, someone is showing up with forged paperwork or some off-the-books bribes to make that happen. Drawing down those sorts of sums from a country's treasury isn't something you can actually just "do" - people have to take actions, funds transferred, meetings held and operations authorized. You are describing a system of resources which likely does exist, but is by no means easy to use or acquire and would not be expended unnecessarily.
      - Wytwwww 2y ago
lenerdenator 2y ago
Make them pay dearly every time there's even reasonable suspicion that Russia has messed with Western/NATO technological infrastructure. That we still have oligarchs and bratva members walking around on NATO soil in the open this far into things is insane.
- andy_ppp 2y ago
  There’s loads more we can do but the Russian government might just collapse if they go too far attacking western assets. They know there will be a response “at a time and place of our choosing” and cutting the Internet properly will be extremely expensive for Russia, they will have no banking system at all and we will give Ukraine weapons to attack their oil infrastructure.
- loongloong 2y ago
  What do you mean "pay dearly" Not more violence I hope... https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/12/11/afghanistan-papers-detail-us-role-abuse https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/12/11/afghanistan-papers-detai... Imagine if every bad thing USA did... people want USA to "pay dearly"...
  - stoperaticless 2y ago
    It is not the time to call “but US also did it” card. When thug attacks, what do you do?
  - lenerdenator 2y ago
    > Imagine if every bad thing USA did... people want USA to "pay dearly"... First off, whataboutism is a logical fallacy. Second, Afghanistan is nothing if not a bunch of people who wanted to make the US "pay dearly", even if to their personal and national detriment. Third, there's a way for the Russians to avoid consequences: stop attacking Western digital infrastructure.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
ungreased0675 2y ago
Maybe a saildrone, that seems feasible with today’s technology.
Giorgi 2y ago
[flagged]
alkonaut 2y ago
The Danish straits is European Waters. We fully control shipping in and out of the Baltic. International law dictates that Denmark cannot prohibit transit passage of foreign vessels unless the vessels appear to be violating the international rules on marine pollution prevention. So Denmark can start assuming every vessel (or at least more vessels) are in violation. Russia can take that to some international court if they so desire. Inspect every ship. Question the crews. Take plenty of time doing it. Perishable goods on board will perish before reaching St Petersburg and Kaliningrad. Tankers will be refused entry, limiting or delaying export income for Russia.
ponector 2y ago
The solution is to refuse passage of the ships to\into Russian part of the Baltic. Naval blockade. But it is impossible as so many Russian-backed politicians are elected in EU. And all other doesn't have a strong will or doesn't care about Russian threat. No Churchill\Reagan types are there. Good times creates weak men.
- Hikikomori 2y ago
  Good thing we have strong reality tv hosts.
Hilift 2y ago
The long term solution is to stop being naive about submarine cables. This is a well-known vulnerability, inevitable, and ignored. There are better alternatives now, and locally this may be temporarily re-routable. But there's no way to protect existing cables on par with something like the Hardened Intersite Cable System (HICS). I'm surprised it hasn't occurred more in the Persian Gulf area. And it could occur in western urban areas with relative ease. Most critical cabling intersect points in the US are unguarded, although may have cameras or other remote monitoring.
valval 2y ago
Well, since Russia has nothing to gain from such actions, you might want to assign surveillance on some other parties in case. But yes, I suppose surveillance might act as some form of deterrence.
tgsovlerkhgsel 2y ago
Treat it as the act of war that it is, and confiscate or sink the ship involved in it. If it can be done before it reaches a harbor, of course also arrest the crew. If it happens repeatedly, declare the passage of all Russian ships (or possibly starting with ships of the type involved in the incident, allowing other shipping and giving Russia a chance to stop abusing it) "prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State" and deny passage through territorial waters. Extend the territorial waters between Finland and Estonia to the full 12 miles without the current corridor in between. Russia understands and responds to strength better than to diplomacy and appeasement.
- gruez 2y ago
  >Treat it as the act of war that it is, and confiscate or sink the ship involved in it. If it can be done before it reaches a harbor, of course also arrest the crew. The ships involved aren't warships. They're ostensibly civilian vessels. Also other people mention that accidental fiber cuts happen all the time. Are we going to drone strike Russian civilian ships on the off chance is malicious? >Russia understands and responds to strength better than to diplomacy and appeasement. The best way to stop someone committing war crimes is... to commit war crimes ourselves?
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    > The ships involved aren't warships. That has hardly stopped people before. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior
    - gruez 2y ago
      Is this supposed to be an argument in favor of sinking civilian ships? From the linked article: >The sinking was a cause of embarrassment to France and President François Mitterrand. They initially denied responsibility, but two French agents were captured by New Zealand Police and charged with arson, conspiracy to commit arson, willful damage, and murder.

lxgr 2y ago

That sounds borderline feasible – in a world where submarines don't exist.

andy_ppp 2y ago
I’m certain the sea is as mapped as you can possibly imagine, cutting say 50% of cables would lead to a lot of Russian ships sinking and a ban on them entering western waters. Their equipment is absolutely shit compared to ours and we know exactly where it all is. Surely they have been told this is a declaration of war which clearly they are scared of too.
- willvarfar 2y ago
  The russians have been investing heavily and have some very good kit http://www.hisutton.com/Yantar.html http://www.hisutton.com/Yantar.html http://www.hisutton.com/Belgorod-Class-Submarine.html http://www.hisutton.com/Belgorod-Class-Submarine.html http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Spy-Submarine-BS-64e.html http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Spy-Submarine-BS-64e.html and so on

regnull 2y ago

The solution is to project strength and hit them where they don't expect. You are dealing with a thug, not a cost/benefit accountant, as Obama seemed to mistakenly believe. As long as they do things and we respond, nothing good will happen. They have already calculated the response and found it acceptable. Instead of this, go to the mattresses. Oh, your bridge has suddenly exploded? Shame.

petre 2y ago
"We" already screwed their pipeline, what's left? Provide Ukraine with the means to blow up the Kerch bridge maybe? They're the ones that could legitimately do that sort of escalation.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > what's left? The other pipelines. Their shadow oil fleet. There are lots of options. But to my knowledge, only the British, French and Americans are capable of the long-range clandestine operations.
  - petre 2y ago
    Their shadow oil fleet is operated by third parties and shell companies. We are dealing with a mafia state here. https://windward.ai/knowledge-base/illuminating-russias-shadow-fleet/ https://windward.ai/knowledge-base/illuminating-russias-shad...
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Their shadow oil fleet is operated by third parties and shell companies Would be a shame if they started having engine troubles in the middle of the ocean.
      - libertine 2y ago
        The "problem" of Western countries is that the political sphere operates under different moral compasses: like taking down a shadow fleet tanker would be a natural disaster... taking down many would mean many disasters. The real question is, should security and defense concerns be placed on hold? If our basic freedoms and rights are being attacked, how big of a deal would be a shadow fleet tanker catastrophe?
        toomuchtodo 2y ago

Hamuko 2y ago

According to CNN reporting, the US is already keeping track of Russian ships near critical submarine infrastructure. Chances are that they already have a prime suspect as to what ship or ships have been engaged in this. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/us-sees-increasing-risk-of-russian-sabotage-undersea-cables/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/us-sees-increasi...

Wytwwww 2y ago

Why would they use a Russian flagged ship for that?

XorNot 2y ago
It's harder to get false identification then people on the internet think. But also the Russian MO has never been to do things where it's not obvious they did it: the spate of critics of the Russian government dying by falling out of windows isn't because they lack creativity in assassinating people.
- Wytwwww 2y ago
  You don't need false documents, buying and operating a ship that has no direct ties to Russia and is registered at an other country isn't that hard at all. Of course yeah, if suddenly if cables get cut 10x more often that they used to it be pretty obvious who is behind it regardless. > has never been to do things where it's not obvious they did They could still shot them or something like that, the window thing still grants them some plausible deniability. e.g. the ship that (unclear if intentionally) damaged the cables last year was Chinese.
  - XorNot 2y ago
    > You don't need false documents, buying and operating a ship that has no direct ties to Russia and is registered at an other country isn't that hard at all You literally just described a program of falsifying documents! If you're buying and operating a ship, then to have "no ties to Russia" while using Russian money, someone is showing up with forged paperwork or some off-the-books bribes to make that happen. Drawing down those sorts of sums from a country's treasury isn't something you can actually just "do" - people have to take actions, funds transferred, meetings held and operations authorized. You are describing a system of resources which likely does exist, but is by no means easy to use or acquire and would not be expended unnecessarily.
    - Wytwwww 2y ago

lenerdenator 2y ago

Make them pay dearly every time there's even reasonable suspicion that Russia has messed with Western/NATO technological infrastructure. That we still have oligarchs and bratva members walking around on NATO soil in the open this far into things is insane.

andy_ppp 2y ago
There’s loads more we can do but the Russian government might just collapse if they go too far attacking western assets. They know there will be a response “at a time and place of our choosing” and cutting the Internet properly will be extremely expensive for Russia, they will have no banking system at all and we will give Ukraine weapons to attack their oil infrastructure.
loongloong 2y ago
What do you mean "pay dearly" Not more violence I hope... https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/12/11/afghanistan-papers-detail-us-role-abuse https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/12/11/afghanistan-papers-detai... Imagine if every bad thing USA did... people want USA to "pay dearly"...
- stoperaticless 2y ago
  It is not the time to call “but US also did it” card. When thug attacks, what do you do?
- lenerdenator 2y ago
  > Imagine if every bad thing USA did... people want USA to "pay dearly"... First off, whataboutism is a logical fallacy. Second, Afghanistan is nothing if not a bunch of people who wanted to make the US "pay dearly", even if to their personal and national detriment. Third, there's a way for the Russians to avoid consequences: stop attacking Western digital infrastructure.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

ungreased0675 2y ago

Maybe a saildrone, that seems feasible with today’s technology.

Giorgi 2y ago

[flagged]

alkonaut 2y ago

The Danish straits is European Waters. We fully control shipping in and out of the Baltic. International law dictates that Denmark cannot prohibit transit passage of foreign vessels unless the vessels appear to be violating the international rules on marine pollution prevention. So Denmark can start assuming every vessel (or at least more vessels) are in violation. Russia can take that to some international court if they so desire. Inspect every ship. Question the crews. Take plenty of time doing it. Perishable goods on board will perish before reaching St Petersburg and Kaliningrad. Tankers will be refused entry, limiting or delaying export income for Russia.

ponector 2y ago

The solution is to refuse passage of the ships to\into Russian part of the Baltic. Naval blockade. But it is impossible as so many Russian-backed politicians are elected in EU. And all other doesn't have a strong will or doesn't care about Russian threat. No Churchill\Reagan types are there. Good times creates weak men.

Hikikomori 2y ago
Good thing we have strong reality tv hosts.

Hilift 2y ago

The long term solution is to stop being naive about submarine cables. This is a well-known vulnerability, inevitable, and ignored. There are better alternatives now, and locally this may be temporarily re-routable. But there's no way to protect existing cables on par with something like the Hardened Intersite Cable System (HICS). I'm surprised it hasn't occurred more in the Persian Gulf area. And it could occur in western urban areas with relative ease. Most critical cabling intersect points in the US are unguarded, although may have cameras or other remote monitoring.

valval 2y ago

Well, since Russia has nothing to gain from such actions, you might want to assign surveillance on some other parties in case. But yes, I suppose surveillance might act as some form of deterrence.

tgsovlerkhgsel 2y ago

Treat it as the act of war that it is, and confiscate or sink the ship involved in it. If it can be done before it reaches a harbor, of course also arrest the crew. If it happens repeatedly, declare the passage of all Russian ships (or possibly starting with ships of the type involved in the incident, allowing other shipping and giving Russia a chance to stop abusing it) "prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State" and deny passage through territorial waters. Extend the territorial waters between Finland and Estonia to the full 12 miles without the current corridor in between. Russia understands and responds to strength better than to diplomacy and appeasement.

gruez 2y ago
>Treat it as the act of war that it is, and confiscate or sink the ship involved in it. If it can be done before it reaches a harbor, of course also arrest the crew. The ships involved aren't warships. They're ostensibly civilian vessels. Also other people mention that accidental fiber cuts happen all the time. Are we going to drone strike Russian civilian ships on the off chance is malicious? >Russia understands and responds to strength better than to diplomacy and appeasement. The best way to stop someone committing war crimes is... to commit war crimes ourselves?
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  > The ships involved aren't warships. That has hardly stopped people before. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior
  - gruez 2y ago
    Is this supposed to be an argument in favor of sinking civilian ships? From the linked article: >The sinking was a cause of embarrassment to France and President François Mitterrand. They initially denied responsibility, but two French agents were captured by New Zealand Police and charged with arson, conspiracy to commit arson, willful damage, and murder.