4 ms·

1 in 10 is not a low probability…

• ben_w 2y ago
  Low, just not low enough. Though that's even assuming Putin (etc.) actually tries to use them — as I said, Biden's deliberately not given enough aid for Ukraine to win hard precisely because he doesn't want to risk it. He's limiting support to enough to not lose, which is different than winning; he doesn't want Russia to keep rolling tanks to the line of the old Iron Curtain either.