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Sure you do, it's accumulated heuristics, no different than meteorology, or other macro-sims of chaotic systems. The difference is that human lives are intenti

Sure you do, it's accumulated heuristics, no different than meteorology, or other macro-sims of chaotic systems. The difference is that human lives are intentioned for different fates; so the negative cognitive dissonance is going to persist consciously, then sub-consciously.

joe_the_user 2y ago
it's accumulated heuristics, no different than meteorology Meteorology is based on physics, meteorology doesn't have a hostile agent attempt counter prediction attempts, meteorology doesn't involve a constantly changing technological landscape, meteorology has access to vast amounts data whereas data that's key to military decisions is generally scarce - you know the phrase "fog of war"? I mean, LLMs in fact, don't provide probabilities for their predictions and indeed the advance of deep learning has hinge "just predict, ignore all considerations of 'good statistics' (knowing probabilities, estimating bias)".
- Jerrrrrrry 2y ago
  >Meteorology is based on physics, Good start. >meteorology doesn't have a hostile agent attempt counter prediction attempts All chaotic systems have second-order reinforcing feedback loops by "tautological" definition of what a feedback loop is and what a sufficiently-complex system is. >meteorology doesn't involve a constantly changing technological landscape, it does, it just has little incentive/motive/order to change, because knowing the probability of it going to rain vs. the cost of it changing the weather is so uneconomically comically juxtapositioned that technology wasn't advanced enough make any progress. All phones being 5G'd into the weather apparatus would give certainty, but the pressure to do that collectively is not there. >meteorology has access to vast amounts data whereas data that's key to military decisions is generally scarce - you know the phrase "fog of war"? "Fog of war" is how it is perceived from outside. Inside, it is those who have a monopoly on viol/power/surv that ultimately wins. and that is us.
  - parodysbird 2y ago
    Warfare is not a chaotic system. We don't think outcomes are highly sensitive to marginal tweaks in initial conditions of the model. Hostile actor aren't modelled as chaotic systems but as agents in some game theory model. None of these agents has a monopoly on violence or power or information, or else it wouldn't be warfare.
    - Jerrrrrrry 2y ago
      That's exactly why the last "war" was World War 2. Since then, we have higher level ordered gentleman agreements that prevent it, as gentleman's agreements are actually more beneficial to the collective than absolute, codified ones, such as "war" and "congress" and "laws" and "special military operations..."

joe_the_user 2y ago

it's accumulated heuristics, no different than meteorology Meteorology is based on physics, meteorology doesn't have a hostile agent attempt counter prediction attempts, meteorology doesn't involve a constantly changing technological landscape, meteorology has access to vast amounts data whereas data that's key to military decisions is generally scarce - you know the phrase "fog of war"? I mean, LLMs in fact, don't provide probabilities for their predictions and indeed the advance of deep learning has hinge "just predict, ignore all considerations of 'good statistics' (knowing probabilities, estimating bias)".

Jerrrrrrry 2y ago
>Meteorology is based on physics, Good start. >meteorology doesn't have a hostile agent attempt counter prediction attempts All chaotic systems have second-order reinforcing feedback loops by "tautological" definition of what a feedback loop is and what a sufficiently-complex system is. >meteorology doesn't involve a constantly changing technological landscape, it does, it just has little incentive/motive/order to change, because knowing the probability of it going to rain vs. the cost of it changing the weather is so uneconomically comically juxtapositioned that technology wasn't advanced enough make any progress. All phones being 5G'd into the weather apparatus would give certainty, but the pressure to do that collectively is not there. >meteorology has access to vast amounts data whereas data that's key to military decisions is generally scarce - you know the phrase "fog of war"? "Fog of war" is how it is perceived from outside. Inside, it is those who have a monopoly on viol/power/surv that ultimately wins. and that is us.
- parodysbird 2y ago
  Warfare is not a chaotic system. We don't think outcomes are highly sensitive to marginal tweaks in initial conditions of the model. Hostile actor aren't modelled as chaotic systems but as agents in some game theory model. None of these agents has a monopoly on violence or power or information, or else it wouldn't be warfare.
  - Jerrrrrrry 2y ago
    That's exactly why the last "war" was World War 2. Since then, we have higher level ordered gentleman agreements that prevent it, as gentleman's agreements are actually more beneficial to the collective than absolute, codified ones, such as "war" and "congress" and "laws" and "special military operations..."