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>I strongly prefer hyperrational risk calculators My problem with this take is that humans are very poor risk estimators, and it gets worse as the probability

by bumby 2y ago

>I strongly prefer hyperrational risk calculators My problem with this take is that humans are very poor risk estimators, and it gets worse as the probability of risk gets lower. I'm willing to bet that even if he made the "right" decision to stay with the craft, he wouldn't have been able to accurately calculate the risk in an after-action-report, even with the benefit of lower stress and an abundance of time.

aleph_minus_one 2y ago
> My problem with this take is that humans are very poor risk estimators Indeed few people have this rare capability, that's why I explicitly named them this way ("hyperrational risk calculators").
- bumby 2y ago
  I’m somewhat skeptical that they exist, at least in the numbers needed to fill pilot slots. Barring certain neurological disease, I don’t think people are “hyper rational” despite even appearing that way to the outside, or identifying themselves as such. We like to sometimes think of our brains as cold computers but they’re not, and even less so in time-critical situations like flying a damaged aircraft. We’re moreso “hypertationalizers” than “hyperrational”
  - aleph_minus_one 2y ago
    > I don’t think people are “hyper rational” despite even appearing that way to the outside, or identifying themselves as such. As I wrote in my parallel answer https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42115831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42115831 I do believe that on rationalism websites or forums, it's quite plausible that some of this breed of people hangs around. --- > I’m somewhat skeptical that they exist [...] in the numbers needed to fill pilot slots. I think we agree with this weaker statement that I created by using the ellipsis. But, as I wrote, > In a a high risk-high reward situation, I strongly prefer hyperrational risk calculators (in opposite to risk avoiders - the common person in society) over hypermasculine risk takers I'd strongly prefer these people - assuming such a choice exists.
    - nradov 2y ago
      Rationalism is overrated. It doesn't even help much with making good decisions, especially under tight time constraints and with incomplete or inaccurate information. People who consider themselves to be "hyper rational" are just obnoxious wankers. I don't take them seriously or trust their judgment.

by bumby 2y ago

aleph_minus_one 2y ago

> My problem with this take is that humans are very poor risk estimators Indeed few people have this rare capability, that's why I explicitly named them this way ("hyperrational risk calculators").

bumby 2y ago
I’m somewhat skeptical that they exist, at least in the numbers needed to fill pilot slots. Barring certain neurological disease, I don’t think people are “hyper rational” despite even appearing that way to the outside, or identifying themselves as such. We like to sometimes think of our brains as cold computers but they’re not, and even less so in time-critical situations like flying a damaged aircraft. We’re moreso “hypertationalizers” than “hyperrational”
- aleph_minus_one 2y ago
  > I don’t think people are “hyper rational” despite even appearing that way to the outside, or identifying themselves as such. As I wrote in my parallel answer https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42115831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42115831 I do believe that on rationalism websites or forums, it's quite plausible that some of this breed of people hangs around. --- > I’m somewhat skeptical that they exist [...] in the numbers needed to fill pilot slots. I think we agree with this weaker statement that I created by using the ellipsis. But, as I wrote, > In a a high risk-high reward situation, I strongly prefer hyperrational risk calculators (in opposite to risk avoiders - the common person in society) over hypermasculine risk takers I'd strongly prefer these people - assuming such a choice exists.
  - nradov 2y ago
    Rationalism is overrated. It doesn't even help much with making good decisions, especially under tight time constraints and with incomplete or inaccurate information. People who consider themselves to be "hyper rational" are just obnoxious wankers. I don't take them seriously or trust their judgment.