4 ms·
How does a prediction market for say, hurricanes or earthquakes effect the outcome of those events?
by duped 2y ago
How does a prediction market for say, hurricanes or earthquakes effect the outcome of those events?
- mejutoco 2y agoAn event like a pandemic could be not classified as a pandemic by an authority to avoid paying some insurances compensation. It is not an earthquake, but a similar example, I believe.
- saithound 2y agoPrediction markets work via resolution criteria, and resolution is a human action. So the moment you operationalize any question, prediction markets can affect the outcome. To give an extreme example, when employees of the FHA bet on "Florida hurricane with 100+ casualties in 2024", they don't need to invent a weather control device to make that happen.