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In 2017 Harley-Davidson was devastated by a European counter-tariff. I'm confident that in 2025 Twitter and Tesla amongst other signature American brands will

In 2017 Harley-Davidson was devastated by a European counter-tariff. I'm confident that in 2025 Twitter and Tesla amongst other signature American brands will be hit by some massive counter-tariffs.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> that in 2025 Twitter and Tesla amongst other signature American brands will be hit by some massive counter-tariffs Maybe. Agricultural products is easy because there isn’t a billionaire at the top to be spiteful. Detroit auto a middle ground between pissing off Elon and not retaliating.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  Tariff targets are generally chosen on industries that have an oversized impact on politicians. Harley-Davidson was chosen because while those tariffs would have little impact on the European or US economy, they figured it would have an oversized impact on Trump. Farmers are typically chosen for counter-tariffs for the same reason -- politicians listen to farmers a lot more closely than their voting or economic impact would imply. Upset farmers get a lot of media time. Musk has Trump's ear. That's why he'll be targetted.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Tariff targets are generally chosen on industries that have an oversized impact on politicians In 2016, when countries were trying to influence policy. There are other motivations for tariffs, from seeking autonomy from an unreliable trading partner to straight-up spite. There is also the domestic component: you target industries you have domestic competitors for because that now makes them happy.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      All counter tariffs are trying to influence policy. If they weren't, we'd just call them tariffs.
unsnap_biceps 2y ago
I can see the argument that Tesla will be impacted by counter-tariffs, but what possible counter-tariff do you think could impact twitter?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > what possible counter-tariff do you think could impact twitter? See Bytedance.
- orwin 2y ago
  Tarifs on services and advertising do not exist yet, but that would be a fun opportunity to try it. Honestly I think we should just ignore and let it pass.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Did Brazil not blackhole Twitter until Musk paid up? Which he did? And Brazil went after Starlink? What do you think China could do, comparatively speaking? If we look at what they did to Jack Ma [1], I could see China doing far more harm to Musk's China interests than the US can do to China. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Ma#During_tech_crackdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Ma#During_tech_crackdown

In 2017 Harley-Davidson was devastated by a European counter-tariff. I'm confident that in 2025 Twitter and Tesla amongst other signature American brands will be hit by some massive counter-tariffs.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> that in 2025 Twitter and Tesla amongst other signature American brands will be hit by some massive counter-tariffs Maybe. Agricultural products is easy because there isn’t a billionaire at the top to be spiteful. Detroit auto a middle ground between pissing off Elon and not retaliating.

bryanlarsen 2y ago
Tariff targets are generally chosen on industries that have an oversized impact on politicians. Harley-Davidson was chosen because while those tariffs would have little impact on the European or US economy, they figured it would have an oversized impact on Trump. Farmers are typically chosen for counter-tariffs for the same reason -- politicians listen to farmers a lot more closely than their voting or economic impact would imply. Upset farmers get a lot of media time. Musk has Trump's ear. That's why he'll be targetted.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Tariff targets are generally chosen on industries that have an oversized impact on politicians In 2016, when countries were trying to influence policy. There are other motivations for tariffs, from seeking autonomy from an unreliable trading partner to straight-up spite. There is also the domestic component: you target industries you have domestic competitors for because that now makes them happy.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    All counter tariffs are trying to influence policy. If they weren't, we'd just call them tariffs.

unsnap_biceps 2y ago

I can see the argument that Tesla will be impacted by counter-tariffs, but what possible counter-tariff do you think could impact twitter?

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> what possible counter-tariff do you think could impact twitter? See Bytedance.
orwin 2y ago
Tarifs on services and advertising do not exist yet, but that would be a fun opportunity to try it. Honestly I think we should just ignore and let it pass.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Did Brazil not blackhole Twitter until Musk paid up? Which he did? And Brazil went after Starlink? What do you think China could do, comparatively speaking? If we look at what they did to Jack Ma [1], I could see China doing far more harm to Musk's China interests than the US can do to China. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Ma#During_tech_crackdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Ma#During_tech_crackdown