5 ms·
TSMC cannot make 2nm chips abroad now: MOEA
- DeathArrow 2y agoSmart move from Taiwan.
- amelius 2y agoI was wondering when it would happen, actually.
- bArray 2y agoNot sure. On one hand they maintain leverage (for things like protection from China), on the other hand the US might grow tired of being restricted. I think the US might also be in a position to apply pressure back by forcing ASML to only sell Taiwan generation-behind processes, I suspect even the threat of that would stop this straight away.
- DeathArrow 2y agoTaiwan is the biggest ASML client. I am not sure they will follow.
- jauntywundrkind 2y agoOn the other hand, discounts for the company willing to be on the bleeding edge & help smooth out the wrinkles does make sense. And in 2024 that company was by far Intel, with TSMC only just starting to take delivery of high na machines. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-first-high-na-euv-litho-tool-to-begin-installation-this-month-according-to-industry-insiders https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-first-high-...
- Gud 2y agoThe US is the biggest market for TSMC. Their second biggest (potential) customer, is their enemy. ASML have the upper hand.
- mrtksn 2y agoVery interesting, so it's the US without access to the cutting edge technology now? From official US standpoint, Taiwan is China therefore in a sense China is cutting US off. Well of course the reality is more intricate, probably this is just Taiwan playing its hands to secure US guarantees but if China ends up taking Taiwan the end result will be the same. We live in really interesting times. Hope this CHIP act stuff and the re-industrialization of US works out.
- Barrin92 2y ago>so it's the US without access to the cutting edge technology now? no, but the newest cutting edge chips can't be manufactured in Arizona right now. US companies can still purchase them. It's a pretty obvious hedge against geopolitical insecurity and support from the US to keep the most advanced manufacturing capacity in Taiwan at any given time.
- mrtksn 2y agoIt can be one tariff away from not letting US companies purchase them(after Chinese takeover or Chinese bullying).
- cma 2y agoThe US did the early EUV research (EUV LLC public private partnership), and acquired security veto power over ASML exports when transferring their portion of the tech to them, which TSMC can't do anything without. Though I don't know that that lasts if we pull out of NATO...
- mrtksn 2y agoRight, currently I'm in Turkey and Turks like to brag about the civilizations who lived here and did the early research on maths, physics and medical sciences. However, ASML is a EU company and at this very moment Trump is threatening EU and he said that EU is just as bad as China and will punish the Europeans. What if the relations between US and EU sour to the point that US is cut off from EUV machines and the Europeans cut a deal with Russia and China instead and get the energy and technology in EU? Anti-American forces are on rise in Europe. Even if US manages to get everything it needs, it will be ~300M people and if Trump manages to alienate enough partners that will be total market size for the fabs and EUV tech as it wouldn't be the only one in town doing it. In these extremely large scale investment stuff, you need to be serving billions of people to make economical sense. Fabs in US with no access to the entire globe is a worse position than Fabs in China with no access to the entire globe simply by the 5x the population difference and with US adopting protectionist stance it doesn't seem like it would be China who doesn't have access to the global markets.
- itsthecourier 2y agoThis is Taiwan saying: if I gave you this tech now, how do I know you will be coming to help were I be invaded? We need to be irreplaceable to be protected
- jonplackett 2y agoIt’s also saying don’t worry we will give you this new tech very soon (as soon as we have something much much better which will then be non-exportable).
- itsthecourier 2y agoExactly, they comply, on their terms
- randomcarbloke 2y agoTaiwan is giving Donald a lot of credit in thinking he will understand the significance of this move.
- xiphias2 2y agoHe understands it, he has much more tech people around him than 8 years ago (his second largest donor just purchased 100k GPUs).
- jamaicanindian 2y ago[dead]
- itsthecourier 2y agoCooperating with Netherlands was hard, improved a lot with Biden, but now it will suffer again Check "Focus: the ASML way", Biden administration fixed lots of Trump mishaps, and now an encore of mistakes is coming in January
- squarefoot 2y ago
- Y_Y 2y agoTheir geopolitical alliance with Apple is a good bet, even if their net worth is only 10% of the US's defence budget.
- mrtksn 2y agoI really don't like measuring muscle strength with money. What if the US is not very efficient with their defence spending? In Ukraine, we found out that the US made shells cost 10x more than the Russian ones and do more-less the same. How many drones Chinese can build at the cost of just one US Aircraft Carrier? How much of the cost of the US defence is actually firepower and how much of it is salaries and operating costs of all the bases all over the world? There's this idea that Trump was elected to dismantle US from its current world order. America did not step in against Russia to fulfill its guarantees to Ukraine, even before Biden and Trump Obama folded when US was challenged in Syria. They only fulfilled their obligations to Israel and that's against orders of magnitude weaker forces. Trump is also known for threatening his allies with not upholding the US obligations unless something extra is given to him. US removes its presence from the world and deals with internal issues instead, China takes over as the high-tech world order enforcer and Europe goes into soul searching.
- user90131313 2y agoUS has budget deficit now. It's far more important to fix the budget. Spending few trillions in Afganistan so few friends get extra rich is not being superpower :) It's literally opposite.
- spwa4 2y agoOkay, let's follow this thought. The US, and the whole western world, rely on advanced weapons that blitz attacking forces, literally try to attack weapons only to the point that some weapons try to spare the operators of said weapons, and certainly try to avoid hitting innocent bystanders, but have trouble sustaining an attack. The idea is essentially to discourage attack by destroying anything that moves in the opening phases of a war, if possible in the first 10 minutes. BUT it has massive advantages: it doesn't kill many people, it does minimum damage, even to military hardware. Even their high prices are a security measure: they require a massive diversified economy behind them to produce these weapons (so even if the US gave Iran engineering specs for nukes, Iran can't build those weapons, and can't build the infrastructure required to build them either. The same goes for most weapons. Iran and Russia have no use for Western weapons, despite what they themselves think) The "dream" Western weapon is a "space laser", when Khamenei comes out of his hole and has a meeting with his commander ordering deaths in Syria ... that before he even finishes the sentence, a hole develops in his face. We can't do this (yet?), but that's the dream. One death, thousands to millions of people saved, and yes, billions of dollars saved too. What western weapons want to avoid at all costs is what's happening in Ukraine and Russia: society vs society, economy vs economy, war of exhaustion, what's also happening in Israel-Iran. Decades-long sustained economy-destroying wars. Redirecting entire countries' output towards military for prolonged periods of time. Economic output. Cultural output. Even the output of women's wombs. The alternative is what communists (and "ex-"communist states that inherited such weapons) do (Soviets, North Korea, ...). Mass, sustained wars of exhaustion. Dedicating all of a country's entire resource base to war, for decades. Economy. Culture. Everything. Including babies, including population, including you and me if they can. Their weapons are very different: their weapons are cheap, easily concealed, worthless, and follow the philosophy of "kill, kill, kill". Weapon can't reach target? It still blows up. You are cheap and can't get component X? Just stick a wooden block into it. Weapon still fires, still kills, probably not the enemy, but it still kills. Artillery out of shells? The human meat wave running towards the enemy STILL leaves. For some reason the aim is off to the point you have no hope of hitting the target? Still fire, still kill, just not the enemy. Weapon gets intercepted? It tries to do maximum damage, even to their own forces. The point is sustained killing in a war of exhaustion, maximum misery, maximum damage. This demoralizes the enemy. It also demoralizes their own troops, but that's why you have barrier troops, security services and torture. That's why hamas and Iran keep getting caught torturing their own people, occasionally even their own soldiers. And, of course, they consider enemy civilians a weapon. That's why Putin gives interviews in the west, friendly, laughing, pointing out all the problems in Western societies while being extremely understanding of the concerns and worries of the person in front of him. That's why Nasrallah was a "friendly grandpa". He is nothing of the sort, obviously, a ruthless killer and rapist. That's why Sinwar is "a family man", a "hero that fought to the end" (he hid in a pre-prepared cellar safely away from his forces, then got found and killed outside of the combat zone, literally accidentally when trying to rob Palestinians for food after running out, after sending out his lieutenants to try to do it for him). That's why Putin even finances Greek extreme-right political parties, and Iran uses Qatar to finance social science departments in the US. Believe it or not but in reality neither the Iranian nor the Qatarese governments see the use of studying psychological effects of gender-switching and LGBTQ preferences of pre-adolescents. They are paying for weapons, to be used against western societies, nothing else. Communist doctrine consider even womens' wombs advanced cannons: they produce and launch weapons at the enemy. Russia has not changed doctrine. Same with hamas and Iran. Socialist's reaction to any setback is the same: throw more people at the conflict to die faster, at an ever increasing rate. That's what Putin is doing now in Ukraine. People think last months' increase in deaths/day (over 1500 Russian victims per day, sustained for >40 days now, up from ~100 per day at the start of the war) is Putin's reaction to Trump's election. It's not. It's Putin's reaction to the war stalling, according to communist doctrine. More death, faster. If the Russian army stalls again, and it will, Russia will throw more bodies at Ukraine. Until India put a stop to it they even kidnapped Indians and put them to the frontline. If Hezbollah fails to achieve anything against Israel, and it will, Iran's leaders will respond by killing more Iranians, killing more Syrians faster, killing more Lebanese faster. Or they will try to. And, as people are reporting, you should not make the mistake of thinking this is stupid: it's working. It's at least a partial success in Ukraine. Well, it is if you consider territorial and possible future financial and geopolitical gain at the cost of hundreds of thousands dead a success. And you can be pretty sure Putin doesn't just consider the resources and territory gained in Ukraine a success, but that he considers the deaths a success too (less effort for the Russian state towards these minorities, more war, "less trouble people" as he put it in one answer). A nice illustration of this difference is US vs Russian nukes. The US published their plans. If a US nuke were to get intercepted, it blows up in a mode to AVOID a nuclear cascade, it blows up chemically to "salt" the fissile material. It self-destructs, not just to avoid a nuclear explosion, but to make all components of the bomb, including the fissile material, utterly unusable for weapons. They even keep the casing intact in hopes of avoiding even radiation poisoning if someone were to collect the warhead and put it under their pillow. Russian nukes that get intercepted blow up. The Kremlin has confirmed that if a Russian Nuke is intercepted, even if it's still over Russian soil ... it initiates nuclear detonation. Famously, if the Kremlin is destroyed, Russia threatens it will automatically launch Nukes ... including at Russian cities. Not just Russian cities, Brussels and Washington too but including Russian cities. And of course, he considers it the job of Western armies, not his, to protect Russian cities against this. You can be sure that the IRGC has orders to start massacring Iranian cities' population if the central government were to fail, and that hamas will massacre Gazans and WB Palestinians when they feel really their hold over them slipping. Do you really want the US and/or Europe to switch to this way of fighting? I don't. You don't either.
- oldpersonintx 2y ago[dead]
- light_hue_1 2y agoBiden agreed to this?! The US provides Taiwan with security. The only reason Taiwan exists is the US shield that we spend so much of our gdp funding instead of things like universal healthcare. The US then gives TSMC 6.6B of taxpayer money. To get a fab that's a generation behind? That's ridiculous. That's not foreign policy, that's letting yourself be pushed around while funding someone else's life. I hate Trump. But these sorts of things make me despise Biden. While childcare is now more expensive than people's mortgages he cut all funding to it in order to give some of the biggest and most well capitalized companies in the world hundreds of billions of dollars. And we get an interior product. When people see news like this I see why Trump won. I would never vote for him. But our foreign policy is a disaster.
- user90131313 2y agoDo you really expect Taiwan to give their primary importance as a partner, as a country , for money which less than wework ? A some random startup? lol
- noelwelsh 2y agoThe reason the US doesn't have things like universal healthcare is not because of defense spending. The US already spends twice as much as the OECD average on healthcare, and has worse outcomes. The money already exists for a better system but the political will does not.
- Ekaros 2y agoSeems entirely sensible and only correct policy in times when protectionism is on the raise. No point giving your global enemy nations chances to steal your technology.
- 627467 2y agobut I thought the US protected Taiwan because of democracy and stuff?
- ChrisArchitect 2y agoRelated: TSMC will stop making 7 nm chips for Chinese customers https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42087346 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42087346
- ChrisArchitect 2y ago[dupe] Earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42100774 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42100774
- tzs 2y agoWhy does AMSL have such a big advantage over everyone else? Are they using alien technology from the Dutch equivalent of Area 51 and nobody else has any idea of how it works or how to get there from where they are now? Or is it something others know how to accomplish it but working out the details and bugs would be expensive and time consuming and so everyone went with AMSL instead of developing their own? Also, much of the attempts to restrict higher density chips ostensibly are to make it harder for others to use advanced AI models in their militaries. Does training such models actually require cutting edge chips? Earlier generation chips will take up more room and be slower, but militaries aren't really limited by space and for a large fraction of military use I'd expect training time doesn't have to be fast. It's running the models in the field where size and time would be more important, but running a model takes way less than training a model.