5 ms·

Get it a bit better in term of precision and we have a killer lab automation tool. Labs around the world would be willing to pay 1M for a robot that can handle

Get it a bit better in term of precision and we have a killer lab automation tool. Labs around the world would be willing to pay 1M for a robot that can handle manual lab works and it is not like they are very difficult. Lots of labwork is based on established protocols with well defined steps. A robot that can grab things and go to town on those tubes without any programming needed is a blockbuster product to me.

NoLinkToMe 2y ago
Agreed, my girlfriend has a biochemistry degree and works in such a lab. It involves some physical work like collecting, preparing and inputting samples, doing basic maintenance of the machines, some analysis and then some administrative/secretarial work in feeding the results into a system or by phonecall to the doctor. All of which can indeed be automated in my view. I would say it really depends on where you are though. In the US it probably makes sense quite quickly. But she lives in a small EU country where salaries aren't high, and this is very much a junior position with a lot of students looking for such a job. Her position costs about 25k a year. The NPV of a $1m investment with a 25k cashflow is negative at normal discount rates. Once you get to replace a $120k salary with a $1m robot, it does make sense. Further I do still expect there to be some jobs in overseeing the robot (e.g. your average factory manager). That makes sense for large centralised production locations, because you can have 1 human job overseeing many robots. It doesn't necessarily make sense with many small decentralised production locations. And that's the nature of most labs, I believe due to the time sensitivity of a lot of lab work they need to be everywhere and close to customers. But maybe that will change.
- bagels 2y ago
  Production version of these robot arms would not be anywhere near $1m
  - Falimonda 2y ago
    That seems to only account for the hardware. How much do you reckon a software license will cost for your fleet of cheap arms?
    - thanksgiving 2y ago
      I got really excited for a second for people who need to work on a lab thinking they will be able to work from home now...
    - csomar 2y ago
      > That seems to only account for the hardware. How much do you reckon a software license will cost for your fleet of cheap arms? Just a bit lower than what a human would cost.
      - amelius 2y ago
        Remember though that AI is a winner takes all space. It will probably be won by a company with lots of cash behind it (like this one which has support from many companies, including OpenAI).
      - notatoad 2y ago
        significantly lower than what a human already doing the job would cost, until the VC money runs out. And then a whole bunch more than what a human would cost, after they've got you locked in and you've let your staff go.
- llm_trw 2y ago
  Keep in mind that workers in the EU work for around 6 hours a day, a robot works for 24, so it's replacing 4 of them, not 1.
  - kaplun 2y ago
    6? Not 8?
    - llm_trw 2y ago
      Lunch and breakfast are serious business.
      - muspimerol 2y ago
        Huh? The average working week in the EU is 37.5 hours a week, or 7.5 hours a day: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20230920-1 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/d... Breakfast and lunch are not paid breaks in any EU country as far as I know.
        Gare 2y ago
        > Breakfast and lunch are not paid breaks in any EU country as far as I know. One 30 minute break (lunch break) is paid in Croatia and Slovenia
        Ekaros 2y ago
        It really depends. For Finland lunch is unpaid unless you are forced to eat at premises. But then you usually have 2 refreshment breaks (10-15min) which are paid...
    - bottom999mottob 2y ago
      Assuming a lunch break is not included as part of 8 hours, do you really think most exmployees are productive for a full 8 hours? Most office workers spend an exorbitant amount of time twiddling their thumbs, reading emails, going to the restroom. On average, I'd say knowledge workers are typically productive for about 2 to 3 hours per day. I'd estimate physical laborers range up to 4 or 5 hours. Assuming 8 hours of full productivity is a strange number to focus on
- ValentinA23 2y ago
  It wouldn't cost 1M. The BOM[1] of Stanford's Mobile Aloha[2] (very similar to physical intelligence's robot) is around $30,000. [1]https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_3yhWjodSNNYlpxkRCPIlvIAaQ76Nqk2wsqhnEVM6Dc/edit?tab=t.0 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_3yhWjodSNNYlpxkRCPIlvIA... [2]https://mobile-aloha.github.io/ https://mobile-aloha.github.io/ $7000 for the wheels/navigation module $3500 x2 for the control arms $6000 x2 for the controlled arms I don't think you need a $7000 navigation module and the arms are also probably overkill. To which extent do we need closed-loop Dynamixel servos when the policy diffusion algo already relies on computer vision driven closed-loop control ?
M4v3R 2y ago
Also worth mentioning that a lot of stuff in chemistry labs is toxic and even potentially deadly to humans, it would be a big win if these could be handled by robots instead.
- bottom999mottob 2y ago
  That reminds me of Dr. Greenamyre in Pittsburgh who thinks he accidentally gave himself Parkinsons researching rotenone in pesticides [0] [0] https://youtu.be/7mYEqUrx6dQ?si=x4P6pkUCd7EvCe1N&t=152 https://youtu.be/7mYEqUrx6dQ?si=x4P6pkUCd7EvCe1N&t=152
amelius 2y ago
Certainly. I have a friend working in this space (AI lab automation). In a few years he expects competition to be fierce, though.
doctorpangloss 2y ago
This lab automation product already exists and the couple of startups in this space face the same headwinds as everyone else trying to sell hardware when the stuff people are essentially really paying for is software. Also nobody’s academic lab is buying $1m startup lab equipment. A whole core for 30 research groups is buying something, but it will be a piece of equipment that directly leads to publishing, ie, something with history. That is why you don’t have the exact thing you are talking about, which exists, in labs.
bubaumba 2y ago
Don't expect much. Even screwing a nut on a bolt is a huge problem for generic robot. Which means you will need a 'robot friendly' lab. Were all things can be done by a primitive robotic hand. Other options are making more capable hands, and completely robotic specialized labs. The first is most interesting and the way to go. When it happens it will open a lot of possibilities. Like "self-repairing" vehicles and planet stations. Just with 'technician' robot onboard.

NoLinkToMe 2y ago

Agreed, my girlfriend has a biochemistry degree and works in such a lab. It involves some physical work like collecting, preparing and inputting samples, doing basic maintenance of the machines, some analysis and then some administrative/secretarial work in feeding the results into a system or by phonecall to the doctor. All of which can indeed be automated in my view. I would say it really depends on where you are though. In the US it probably makes sense quite quickly. But she lives in a small EU country where salaries aren't high, and this is very much a junior position with a lot of students looking for such a job. Her position costs about 25k a year. The NPV of a $1m investment with a 25k cashflow is negative at normal discount rates. Once you get to replace a $120k salary with a $1m robot, it does make sense. Further I do still expect there to be some jobs in overseeing the robot (e.g. your average factory manager). That makes sense for large centralised production locations, because you can have 1 human job overseeing many robots. It doesn't necessarily make sense with many small decentralised production locations. And that's the nature of most labs, I believe due to the time sensitivity of a lot of lab work they need to be everywhere and close to customers. But maybe that will change.

bagels 2y ago
Production version of these robot arms would not be anywhere near $1m
- Falimonda 2y ago
  That seems to only account for the hardware. How much do you reckon a software license will cost for your fleet of cheap arms?
  - thanksgiving 2y ago
    I got really excited for a second for people who need to work on a lab thinking they will be able to work from home now...
  - csomar 2y ago
    > That seems to only account for the hardware. How much do you reckon a software license will cost for your fleet of cheap arms? Just a bit lower than what a human would cost.
    - amelius 2y ago
      Remember though that AI is a winner takes all space. It will probably be won by a company with lots of cash behind it (like this one which has support from many companies, including OpenAI).
    - notatoad 2y ago
      significantly lower than what a human already doing the job would cost, until the VC money runs out. And then a whole bunch more than what a human would cost, after they've got you locked in and you've let your staff go.
llm_trw 2y ago
Keep in mind that workers in the EU work for around 6 hours a day, a robot works for 24, so it's replacing 4 of them, not 1.
- kaplun 2y ago
  6? Not 8?
  - llm_trw 2y ago
    Lunch and breakfast are serious business.
    - muspimerol 2y ago
      Huh? The average working week in the EU is 37.5 hours a week, or 7.5 hours a day: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20230920-1 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/d... Breakfast and lunch are not paid breaks in any EU country as far as I know.
      - Gare 2y ago
        > Breakfast and lunch are not paid breaks in any EU country as far as I know. One 30 minute break (lunch break) is paid in Croatia and Slovenia
      - Ekaros 2y ago
        It really depends. For Finland lunch is unpaid unless you are forced to eat at premises. But then you usually have 2 refreshment breaks (10-15min) which are paid...
  - bottom999mottob 2y ago
    Assuming a lunch break is not included as part of 8 hours, do you really think most exmployees are productive for a full 8 hours? Most office workers spend an exorbitant amount of time twiddling their thumbs, reading emails, going to the restroom. On average, I'd say knowledge workers are typically productive for about 2 to 3 hours per day. I'd estimate physical laborers range up to 4 or 5 hours. Assuming 8 hours of full productivity is a strange number to focus on
ValentinA23 2y ago
It wouldn't cost 1M. The BOM[1] of Stanford's Mobile Aloha[2] (very similar to physical intelligence's robot) is around $30,000. [1]https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_3yhWjodSNNYlpxkRCPIlvIAaQ76Nqk2wsqhnEVM6Dc/edit?tab=t.0 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_3yhWjodSNNYlpxkRCPIlvIA... [2]https://mobile-aloha.github.io/ https://mobile-aloha.github.io/ $7000 for the wheels/navigation module $3500 x2 for the control arms $6000 x2 for the controlled arms I don't think you need a $7000 navigation module and the arms are also probably overkill. To which extent do we need closed-loop Dynamixel servos when the policy diffusion algo already relies on computer vision driven closed-loop control ?

M4v3R 2y ago

Also worth mentioning that a lot of stuff in chemistry labs is toxic and even potentially deadly to humans, it would be a big win if these could be handled by robots instead.

bottom999mottob 2y ago
That reminds me of Dr. Greenamyre in Pittsburgh who thinks he accidentally gave himself Parkinsons researching rotenone in pesticides [0] [0] https://youtu.be/7mYEqUrx6dQ?si=x4P6pkUCd7EvCe1N&t=152 https://youtu.be/7mYEqUrx6dQ?si=x4P6pkUCd7EvCe1N&t=152

amelius 2y ago

Certainly. I have a friend working in this space (AI lab automation). In a few years he expects competition to be fierce, though.

doctorpangloss 2y ago

This lab automation product already exists and the couple of startups in this space face the same headwinds as everyone else trying to sell hardware when the stuff people are essentially really paying for is software. Also nobody’s academic lab is buying $1m startup lab equipment. A whole core for 30 research groups is buying something, but it will be a piece of equipment that directly leads to publishing, ie, something with history. That is why you don’t have the exact thing you are talking about, which exists, in labs.

bubaumba 2y ago

Don't expect much. Even screwing a nut on a bolt is a huge problem for generic robot. Which means you will need a 'robot friendly' lab. Were all things can be done by a primitive robotic hand. Other options are making more capable hands, and completely robotic specialized labs. The first is most interesting and the way to go. When it happens it will open a lot of possibilities. Like "self-repairing" vehicles and planet stations. Just with 'technician' robot onboard.