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The uncertainty is crazy, on the one hand I can't imagine that they'll actually want to cause people that much pain, especially with midterms only 2 years away,

The uncertainty is crazy, on the one hand I can't imagine that they'll actually want to cause people that much pain, especially with midterms only 2 years away, on the other hand, are they really just going to run a normal boring republican administration? Totally objectively, not in regards to any specific person's personality, or the things they've said, or "Political Party bad" I don't know how you make such big structural change that is going to cause that kind of pain in under 4 years without some kind of anti-democratic push.

seanmcdirmid 2y ago
Trump doesn't really have a chance in the midterms: his popularity is likely to be underwater a week or two after his inauguration. So I don't think he is going to sweat them, and he will try to cram in as much in 2 years before he basically becomes a lameduck. Ideally, he will focus his effort on settling scores, spending his hard and soft capital on dumb stuff, like a full congressional hearing on Hunter Biden or something else. He could also executive order a bunch of heavy tariffs early, which should put the whole political establishment in damage control for the 2 years that he can do anything. If he has really smart advisors that he actually listens too, he could potentially do a lot more, but I don't think that will come to pass.
rsynnott 2y ago
> The uncertainty is crazy, on the one hand I can't imagine that they'll actually want to cause people that much pain, especially with midterms only 2 years away, on the other hand, are they really just going to run a normal boring republican administration? Right now, the markets seem to largely think that he won't do this. Which, to me, honestly, is a bit weird; no-one ever went bust betting on Trump doing bloody stupid things that he said he'd do. I'd be somewhat surprised if he doesn't at least try.

seanmcdirmid 2y ago

Trump doesn't really have a chance in the midterms: his popularity is likely to be underwater a week or two after his inauguration. So I don't think he is going to sweat them, and he will try to cram in as much in 2 years before he basically becomes a lameduck. Ideally, he will focus his effort on settling scores, spending his hard and soft capital on dumb stuff, like a full congressional hearing on Hunter Biden or something else. He could also executive order a bunch of heavy tariffs early, which should put the whole political establishment in damage control for the 2 years that he can do anything. If he has really smart advisors that he actually listens too, he could potentially do a lot more, but I don't think that will come to pass.

rsynnott 2y ago

> The uncertainty is crazy, on the one hand I can't imagine that they'll actually want to cause people that much pain, especially with midterms only 2 years away, on the other hand, are they really just going to run a normal boring republican administration? Right now, the markets seem to largely think that he won't do this. Which, to me, honestly, is a bit weird; no-one ever went bust betting on Trump doing bloody stupid things that he said he'd do. I'd be somewhat surprised if he doesn't at least try.