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The tariffs are such a stupid idea. I really hope someone talks him down from them before he takes office.

by wumeow 2y ago

taylodl 2y ago
Nope. There's unlikely to be any adult supervision in the white house - unlike his previous term. This time around he has the power to surround himself with yes-men and self-proclaimed geniuses like Elon Musk. To me the question isn't can we avert disaster because clearly we're unlikely to do so, but what happens next? Trump's narcissism will prevent him from believing any of the disaster is his fault. That is what concerns me.
floxy 2y ago
Am I correct in thinking that the Biden administration left all of the previous tariffs in place, and just recently enacted more tariffs on Chinese products (including 100% on EVs)? https://www.reuters.com/business/us-locks-steep-china-tariff-hikes-many-start-sept-27-2024-09-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/us-locks-steep-china-tariff...
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  Yes. You are also correct in understanding that the previous Trump tariffs were limited in scope (steel, aluminum, solar panels) and the new Biden tariffs were just on EVs, and not on Macbooks or iPhones made in China's SEZs. Definitely not the very broad tariffs Trump promised during his campaign. +1 for accuracy!
  - floxy 2y ago
    I was thinking that the current tariffs were pretty extensive. Anyone know of a user friendly source for which items are covered? I believe this is probably the authoritative source: https://hts.usitc.gov/reststop/file?release=currentRelease&filename=China%20Tariffs https://hts.usitc.gov/reststop/file?release=currentRelease&f... ...but that's not too easy to peruse. I'd like to see something like: 0106.41.00.00, Bees, 7.5% Tariff 2832.30.10.00, Sodium thiosulfate, 25% 3701.99.60.30, Graphic arts film, 25% 3904.50.00.00, Vinylidene chloride polymers; Fluoropolymers, 25% 4107.19.10.40, Lining leather, 25% ...seems like you can get it one-at-a-time from: https://www.htshub.com/us-hs/search/0106.41.00.00 https://www.htshub.com/us-hs/search/0106.41.00.00
    - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
      They aren't broad, they are all very selective and designed not to hurt the American economy too much. You know, usually these spats are like "I'm going to tariff some niche product from you, and then you will tariff some niche product from me, and the crowds on both sides will be satisfied by the non-sacrifice." But again, if you put tariffs up that directly apply to an iPhone or Android phone, or anything else people actually buy, they are going to actually notice. I would stock up on bigger ticket purchases before January 15th, because prices are about to go crazy.
      - floxy 2y ago
        Seems like the tariffs currently generate about $80 billion a year in tax revenue: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/09/customs-duties-what-do-they-amount-to/ https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/09/customs-duties-what-...
        seanmcdirmid 2y ago
        Which is < 2% of federal revenue.
techfeathers 2y ago
Weren't Tariffs pretty central to the argument of why trump? If Trump talked about Tariffs non-stop as his economic agenda, and 70+ percent of people said they trusted Trump's economic agenda, it seems like a weird thing to go back on.
- jerlam 2y ago
  Broken campaign promises are a dime a dozen, remember the wall that Mexico paid for? It's not like citizens can recall him.
seanmcdirmid 2y ago
Unlikely. The wall that Mexico was going to pay for was also a bad idea in so much as building the infrastructure to build the wall in more remote parts of the border would actually make crossing the border illegally easier, not harder. But I think Trump is pretty reliable at least trying to deliver what he promises. And since presidents have basically full control to tariff, I don't see anything stopping from instituting world crippling tariffs on day one of his presidency. So get prepared for the price of computers to double at least. I would stock up before January.
- wumeow 2y ago
  > So get prepared for the price of computers to double at least That's really the least of my worries. The 60/20 tariffs are so broad, they're going to hit every industry hard. And people voted for Trump because they hated inflation! Unbelievable.
  - techfeathers 2y ago
    The uncertainty is crazy, on the one hand I can't imagine that they'll actually want to cause people that much pain, especially with midterms only 2 years away, on the other hand, are they really just going to run a normal boring republican administration? Totally objectively, not in regards to any specific person's personality, or the things they've said, or "Political Party bad" I don't know how you make such big structural change that is going to cause that kind of pain in under 4 years without some kind of anti-democratic push.
    - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
      Trump doesn't really have a chance in the midterms: his popularity is likely to be underwater a week or two after his inauguration. So I don't think he is going to sweat them, and he will try to cram in as much in 2 years before he basically becomes a lameduck. Ideally, he will focus his effort on settling scores, spending his hard and soft capital on dumb stuff, like a full congressional hearing on Hunter Biden or something else. He could also executive order a bunch of heavy tariffs early, which should put the whole political establishment in damage control for the 2 years that he can do anything. If he has really smart advisors that he actually listens too, he could potentially do a lot more, but I don't think that will come to pass.
JumpinJack_Cash 2y ago
The tariffs are his best idea, we have plenty of stuff of all sorts but people lack the meaning of a job and feeling important for society. For example during the pandemic the healthcare workers felt scared, tired, overworked, underpaid...but one thing they didn't feel was irrelevant and unimportant. Time for steel workers, coal workers etc. to feel the same. It's also time to admit that more stuff won't make us happier. Protectionism has always existed and for a reason, it will never become obsolete as long as people need to feel important. And on the other hand free trade will never become obsolete, as long as people love stuff at a convenient price. It's all about finding a balance according to the historic moment. Free trade has overextended itself and people now want less stuff and more meaning. That's why they came out in droves for Trump
- techfeathers 2y ago
  > Free trade has overextended itself and people now want less stuff and more meaning. That's why they came out in droves for Trump I absolutely love your argument about less stuff and more meaning, and this issue of better jobs for the working class is one I would have loved to see realistically debated during the election (JD Vance briefly mentioned it, but there wasn't really serious debate about issues and policies). But the idea that this is why people came out for Trump seems just not true. People mostly seemed to come out for the opposite reason, that they felt financially squeezed by inflation. I think a larger story about bringing manufacturing back for meaning is interesting, but not at the forefront of voters minds. "Exit polls on Tuesday showed a stark partisan divide. Some two-thirds (67%) of voters said the condition of the economy was “not good/poor,” and only 32% thought the economy was “excellent/good." https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/trump-harris-economy-voters-hispanic-prices-consumers-election-negative/ https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/trump-harris-economy-voters-h...
  - taylodl 2y ago
    People want good-paying jobs. They also want the items they purchase to be low cost. These desires are mutually exclusive. I honestly don't know what to tell these people. They're absolutely clueless as to how markets work.

The tariffs are such a stupid idea. I really hope someone talks him down from them before he takes office.

by wumeow 2y ago

The tariffs are such a stupid idea. I really hope someone talks him down from them before he takes office.

Nope. There's unlikely to be any adult supervision in the white house - unlike his previous term. This time around he has the power to surround himself with yes-men and self-proclaimed geniuses like Elon Musk. To me the question isn't can we avert disaster because clearly we're unlikely to do so, but what happens next? Trump's narcissism will prevent him from believing any of the disaster is his fault. That is what concerns me.

floxy 2y ago

Am I correct in thinking that the Biden administration left all of the previous tariffs in place, and just recently enacted more tariffs on Chinese products (including 100% on EVs)? https://www.reuters.com/business/us-locks-steep-china-tariff-hikes-many-start-sept-27-2024-09-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/us-locks-steep-china-tariff...

seanmcdirmid 2y ago
Yes. You are also correct in understanding that the previous Trump tariffs were limited in scope (steel, aluminum, solar panels) and the new Biden tariffs were just on EVs, and not on Macbooks or iPhones made in China's SEZs. Definitely not the very broad tariffs Trump promised during his campaign. +1 for accuracy!
- floxy 2y ago
  I was thinking that the current tariffs were pretty extensive. Anyone know of a user friendly source for which items are covered? I believe this is probably the authoritative source: https://hts.usitc.gov/reststop/file?release=currentRelease&filename=China%20Tariffs https://hts.usitc.gov/reststop/file?release=currentRelease&f... ...but that's not too easy to peruse. I'd like to see something like: 0106.41.00.00, Bees, 7.5% Tariff 2832.30.10.00, Sodium thiosulfate, 25% 3701.99.60.30, Graphic arts film, 25% 3904.50.00.00, Vinylidene chloride polymers; Fluoropolymers, 25% 4107.19.10.40, Lining leather, 25% ...seems like you can get it one-at-a-time from: https://www.htshub.com/us-hs/search/0106.41.00.00 https://www.htshub.com/us-hs/search/0106.41.00.00
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    They aren't broad, they are all very selective and designed not to hurt the American economy too much. You know, usually these spats are like "I'm going to tariff some niche product from you, and then you will tariff some niche product from me, and the crowds on both sides will be satisfied by the non-sacrifice." But again, if you put tariffs up that directly apply to an iPhone or Android phone, or anything else people actually buy, they are going to actually notice. I would stock up on bigger ticket purchases before January 15th, because prices are about to go crazy.
    - floxy 2y ago
      Seems like the tariffs currently generate about $80 billion a year in tax revenue: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/09/customs-duties-what-do-they-amount-to/ https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/09/customs-duties-what-...
      - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
        Which is < 2% of federal revenue.

techfeathers 2y ago

Weren't Tariffs pretty central to the argument of why trump? If Trump talked about Tariffs non-stop as his economic agenda, and 70+ percent of people said they trusted Trump's economic agenda, it seems like a weird thing to go back on.

jerlam 2y ago
Broken campaign promises are a dime a dozen, remember the wall that Mexico paid for? It's not like citizens can recall him.

seanmcdirmid 2y ago

Unlikely. The wall that Mexico was going to pay for was also a bad idea in so much as building the infrastructure to build the wall in more remote parts of the border would actually make crossing the border illegally easier, not harder. But I think Trump is pretty reliable at least trying to deliver what he promises. And since presidents have basically full control to tariff, I don't see anything stopping from instituting world crippling tariffs on day one of his presidency. So get prepared for the price of computers to double at least. I would stock up before January.

wumeow 2y ago
> So get prepared for the price of computers to double at least That's really the least of my worries. The 60/20 tariffs are so broad, they're going to hit every industry hard. And people voted for Trump because they hated inflation! Unbelievable.
- techfeathers 2y ago
  The uncertainty is crazy, on the one hand I can't imagine that they'll actually want to cause people that much pain, especially with midterms only 2 years away, on the other hand, are they really just going to run a normal boring republican administration? Totally objectively, not in regards to any specific person's personality, or the things they've said, or "Political Party bad" I don't know how you make such big structural change that is going to cause that kind of pain in under 4 years without some kind of anti-democratic push.
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    Trump doesn't really have a chance in the midterms: his popularity is likely to be underwater a week or two after his inauguration. So I don't think he is going to sweat them, and he will try to cram in as much in 2 years before he basically becomes a lameduck. Ideally, he will focus his effort on settling scores, spending his hard and soft capital on dumb stuff, like a full congressional hearing on Hunter Biden or something else. He could also executive order a bunch of heavy tariffs early, which should put the whole political establishment in damage control for the 2 years that he can do anything. If he has really smart advisors that he actually listens too, he could potentially do a lot more, but I don't think that will come to pass.

JumpinJack_Cash 2y ago

The tariffs are his best idea, we have plenty of stuff of all sorts but people lack the meaning of a job and feeling important for society. For example during the pandemic the healthcare workers felt scared, tired, overworked, underpaid...but one thing they didn't feel was irrelevant and unimportant. Time for steel workers, coal workers etc. to feel the same. It's also time to admit that more stuff won't make us happier. Protectionism has always existed and for a reason, it will never become obsolete as long as people need to feel important. And on the other hand free trade will never become obsolete, as long as people love stuff at a convenient price. It's all about finding a balance according to the historic moment. Free trade has overextended itself and people now want less stuff and more meaning. That's why they came out in droves for Trump

techfeathers 2y ago
> Free trade has overextended itself and people now want less stuff and more meaning. That's why they came out in droves for Trump I absolutely love your argument about less stuff and more meaning, and this issue of better jobs for the working class is one I would have loved to see realistically debated during the election (JD Vance briefly mentioned it, but there wasn't really serious debate about issues and policies). But the idea that this is why people came out for Trump seems just not true. People mostly seemed to come out for the opposite reason, that they felt financially squeezed by inflation. I think a larger story about bringing manufacturing back for meaning is interesting, but not at the forefront of voters minds. "Exit polls on Tuesday showed a stark partisan divide. Some two-thirds (67%) of voters said the condition of the economy was “not good/poor,” and only 32% thought the economy was “excellent/good." https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/trump-harris-economy-voters-hispanic-prices-consumers-election-negative/ https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/trump-harris-economy-voters-h...
- taylodl 2y ago
  People want good-paying jobs. They also want the items they purchase to be low cost. These desires are mutually exclusive. I honestly don't know what to tell these people. They're absolutely clueless as to how markets work.