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incumbents all around the world have performed terribly post COVID. UK, Canada, Japan, France, Italy, have all had landslide or shocking election results. Unsu

by czhu12 2y ago

incumbents all around the world have performed terribly post COVID. UK, Canada, Japan, France, Italy, have all had landslide or shocking election results. Unsure what the general mood is that can lead to Keir Starmer dropping 30 points in approval months after winning in a landslide, but the mood of general discontent may be relevant in the United States as well. It seems whatever the status quo / incumbent advantage that used to exist, is now working against candidates. Even if the democrats ran a better candidate in a better campaign, it may not have been enough to overcome these headwinds. Although, I'm not sure I totally believe that myself since she lost by a pretty narrow margin in swing states. Obviously not to excuse the dems, just something to consider

nightowl_games 2y ago
> Canada Trudeau has been PM since 2015 and the last election was in 2021. Sure, it looks like he's gonna lose the next one, but Canada hasn't had a oppositional landslide election.
- max51 2y ago
  The next election looks so bad for him that there is a chance the Bloc Quebecois could be the official opposition. That party has no candidate outside of quebec.
  - sbdhzjd 2y ago
    Wouldn't be the first time though. I'd old timers remember Bouchard. Granted, the last time the Bloc was Her Majesty's loyal opposition, the incumbent party collapsed, never recovered, and was swallowed by its rival.
- hellgas00 2y ago
  There were a couple byelections within the last few months in historically stronghold ridings for the Liberal party that have not flipped in decades. One in Toronto which went to the Conservatives and one in Montreal which went to the Bloc Québécois. It's almost a certainty that the Liberals will not form a government next election, and polling suggests that they are trending below the seat count needed to be the official opposition.
- sbdhzjd 2y ago
  When's the last time Trudeau won a plurality of votes? Canada's electoral system is extremely non-linear. The US' electoral college is far far more linear wrt popular vote than parliamentary elections, generally, and Canada's in particular.
  - WorkerBee28474 2y ago
    > When's the last time Trudeau won a plurality of votes? For the curious, 2015, which was 9 years and 3 elections ago. And he got less than 40% of the vote. (https://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/1867-present.html https://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/1867-present.html)
- czhu12 2y ago
  The early warning signs are quite stark -- the BC liberal party (despite having no affiliation with the national liberals) effectively disbanded because of how awful the branding is at this point, and the most left leaning province in the country almost swung conservative. (I'm from BC) Its hard to imagine the upcoming election will not be a landslide in the next few months, but it is true that there has not yet been an official victory yet.
stego-tech 2y ago
The reason for this isn't a mystery: the world doesn't work for the plurality of its populace. The current generations were sold a lie of infinite prosperity and comforts by their elders and governments, a lie built on the exploitation of former colonies and underdeveloped nations. We see the lie now, and know it cannot be sustained in the face of our current polycrisis (climate, housing, necessities) simply by promoting infinite growth. There's an understanding that we need to curtail consumption and start properly engineering a global economy rather than letting it spawn and mutate naturally, but there's still enough people out there who believe that this demagogue, this partisan, this policy will give them the riches and posh comforts their elders enjoyed, thus returning their country to a golden era that never really existed. It's the desperation of the masses for what they feel is rightfully theirs, because that's what they were told by those who pulled up the ladder behind them. That era is long gone, but nostalgia is a powerful force that's easily propagandized by those who benefit from said desperation.
- fiala__ 2y ago
  Very well said. I think what you speak of sounds a lot like degrowth and/or idealised socialism. Unfortunately, I don't see either of those ever becoming viable policy in our world. The only times we've managed to even remotely approach such policy is after terrible, long wars. Other than that, the big man promising you shiny stuff has always won.
  - mandmandam 2y ago
    > The only times we've managed to even remotely approach such policy is after terrible, long wars Or during/after natural disasters. Any time things get real tough, we tend to default to helping each other out mutual aid style - even in America [0]. Seems worth keeping in mind. 0 - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28048.Hope_in_the_Dark https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28048.Hope_in_the_Dark
  - generativenoise 2y ago
    I agree that they are unlikely to become viable policy, but environmentally imposed degrowth will become increasingly real. Natural physical constraints are tightening and are already imposing into manufactured reality. Hitting the physical bounds hard and having to deal with that is looking more likely since human ecological footprint (population x resource intensiveness) is unlikely to drop fast enough to avoid them.
RadiozRadioz 2y ago
Keir Starmer didn't win by a landslide, it's that the Tories lost by a landslide. People didn't vote for him, they voted for "not the Conservatives". Now that he's in, the approval rating is correcting.
hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
If you look at the past ~15 or so years in the US, it has been pretty constant flip flopping. I think that's a general condemnation of the status quo, and unsurprisingly. For many people the economy just doesn't work for them like it used to. At the same time, I think the media talking heads put much too much effort into explaining the results, and they basically give the electorate much too much credit. To be blunt, your average voter is not particularly smart, or at least they aren't able to draw a line between cause and effect. Take inflation for example, which many pundits say was the major issue of this election. But if you look at essentially any economist, of any particular political leaning, they will say that Trump's proposed policies (e.g. massive tariffs) are absolutely horrible for inflation. Similarly, at the end of Trump's 1st term, he was absolutely berating Powell for not having even looser monetary policy in 2019 despite extremely low unemployment. I think it's fine to argue the Dems did a ton of stupid shit (a lot of this I may agree with), but it's pretty clear that the electorate wants a strongman right now, and that's basically the antithesis of what the Democratic Party wants at large. I also think the Dems haven't accepted the fact that there is zero chance a woman from the managerial class will be elected president.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  So Americans would rather hear a convinient lie than an invonvinient truth? Sadly consistent given these last 8 years.
- xp84 2y ago
  You're not wrong, dems aren't wrong, about inflation statistics themselves. But universally, everyone got a massive pay cut from inflation which has not been reversed. I even think people in California making minimum wage, which went up, are still worse off than they were in 2019 since they spend so much of their income on food, housing, cars, all of which shot up. But people in the middle class are arguably way worse off since jobs paying say 100k weren't handing out 40% raises. Aggregate inflation screwed us, and the rate of inflation coming under control doesn't reverse it at all. Tariffs may wildly change things. Best case, it could result in job creation and wage increases here, though none of those jobs would be for college educated Americans, which is why the Left hates tariffs.
creativenolo 2y ago
> Unsure what the general mood is that can lead to Keir Starmer dropping 30 points in approval months after winning in a landslide The window to do your unpopular policies and announcements is the start of your government in the hope the reap the benefits just before the next election cycle. Not saying it’s the correct approach, but that’s the theory.
nitwit005 2y ago
It feels like in many cases the voters essentially do not know what they want, other than something different than what they have now. Which seems to produce the ironic result you observe, that winning can be damaging.
erichocean 2y ago
> after winning in a landslide He got like 30% of the vote, the opposite of "a landslide."
mmahemoff 2y ago
Australia (2022) and New Zealand (2023) flipped definitively too, in their respective post-Covid elections. The discontent looks like a general pattern regardless of whether the pandemic-era incumbent was nominally "left" or "right".
alex_smart 2y ago
India being a notable exception. Modi got re-elected for a third term, although with a smaller majority.
yashg 2y ago
>>incumbents all around the world have performed terribly post COVID Except India. Yes, ruling party did lose majority on it's own but they still formed the third successive government despite terrible handling of the COVID.

by czhu12 2y ago

nightowl_games 2y ago

> Canada Trudeau has been PM since 2015 and the last election was in 2021. Sure, it looks like he's gonna lose the next one, but Canada hasn't had a oppositional landslide election.

max51 2y ago
The next election looks so bad for him that there is a chance the Bloc Quebecois could be the official opposition. That party has no candidate outside of quebec.
- sbdhzjd 2y ago
  Wouldn't be the first time though. I'd old timers remember Bouchard. Granted, the last time the Bloc was Her Majesty's loyal opposition, the incumbent party collapsed, never recovered, and was swallowed by its rival.
hellgas00 2y ago
There were a couple byelections within the last few months in historically stronghold ridings for the Liberal party that have not flipped in decades. One in Toronto which went to the Conservatives and one in Montreal which went to the Bloc Québécois. It's almost a certainty that the Liberals will not form a government next election, and polling suggests that they are trending below the seat count needed to be the official opposition.
sbdhzjd 2y ago
When's the last time Trudeau won a plurality of votes? Canada's electoral system is extremely non-linear. The US' electoral college is far far more linear wrt popular vote than parliamentary elections, generally, and Canada's in particular.
- WorkerBee28474 2y ago
  > When's the last time Trudeau won a plurality of votes? For the curious, 2015, which was 9 years and 3 elections ago. And he got less than 40% of the vote. (https://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/1867-present.html https://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/1867-present.html)
czhu12 2y ago
The early warning signs are quite stark -- the BC liberal party (despite having no affiliation with the national liberals) effectively disbanded because of how awful the branding is at this point, and the most left leaning province in the country almost swung conservative. (I'm from BC) Its hard to imagine the upcoming election will not be a landslide in the next few months, but it is true that there has not yet been an official victory yet.

stego-tech 2y ago

The reason for this isn't a mystery: the world doesn't work for the plurality of its populace. The current generations were sold a lie of infinite prosperity and comforts by their elders and governments, a lie built on the exploitation of former colonies and underdeveloped nations. We see the lie now, and know it cannot be sustained in the face of our current polycrisis (climate, housing, necessities) simply by promoting infinite growth. There's an understanding that we need to curtail consumption and start properly engineering a global economy rather than letting it spawn and mutate naturally, but there's still enough people out there who believe that this demagogue, this partisan, this policy will give them the riches and posh comforts their elders enjoyed, thus returning their country to a golden era that never really existed. It's the desperation of the masses for what they feel is rightfully theirs, because that's what they were told by those who pulled up the ladder behind them. That era is long gone, but nostalgia is a powerful force that's easily propagandized by those who benefit from said desperation.

fiala__ 2y ago
Very well said. I think what you speak of sounds a lot like degrowth and/or idealised socialism. Unfortunately, I don't see either of those ever becoming viable policy in our world. The only times we've managed to even remotely approach such policy is after terrible, long wars. Other than that, the big man promising you shiny stuff has always won.
- mandmandam 2y ago
  > The only times we've managed to even remotely approach such policy is after terrible, long wars Or during/after natural disasters. Any time things get real tough, we tend to default to helping each other out mutual aid style - even in America [0]. Seems worth keeping in mind. 0 - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28048.Hope_in_the_Dark https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28048.Hope_in_the_Dark
- generativenoise 2y ago
  I agree that they are unlikely to become viable policy, but environmentally imposed degrowth will become increasingly real. Natural physical constraints are tightening and are already imposing into manufactured reality. Hitting the physical bounds hard and having to deal with that is looking more likely since human ecological footprint (population x resource intensiveness) is unlikely to drop fast enough to avoid them.

RadiozRadioz 2y ago

Keir Starmer didn't win by a landslide, it's that the Tories lost by a landslide. People didn't vote for him, they voted for "not the Conservatives". Now that he's in, the approval rating is correcting.

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago

If you look at the past ~15 or so years in the US, it has been pretty constant flip flopping. I think that's a general condemnation of the status quo, and unsurprisingly. For many people the economy just doesn't work for them like it used to. At the same time, I think the media talking heads put much too much effort into explaining the results, and they basically give the electorate much too much credit. To be blunt, your average voter is not particularly smart, or at least they aren't able to draw a line between cause and effect. Take inflation for example, which many pundits say was the major issue of this election. But if you look at essentially any economist, of any particular political leaning, they will say that Trump's proposed policies (e.g. massive tariffs) are absolutely horrible for inflation. Similarly, at the end of Trump's 1st term, he was absolutely berating Powell for not having even looser monetary policy in 2019 despite extremely low unemployment. I think it's fine to argue the Dems did a ton of stupid shit (a lot of this I may agree with), but it's pretty clear that the electorate wants a strongman right now, and that's basically the antithesis of what the Democratic Party wants at large. I also think the Dems haven't accepted the fact that there is zero chance a woman from the managerial class will be elected president.

johnnyanmac 2y ago
So Americans would rather hear a convinient lie than an invonvinient truth? Sadly consistent given these last 8 years.
xp84 2y ago
You're not wrong, dems aren't wrong, about inflation statistics themselves. But universally, everyone got a massive pay cut from inflation which has not been reversed. I even think people in California making minimum wage, which went up, are still worse off than they were in 2019 since they spend so much of their income on food, housing, cars, all of which shot up. But people in the middle class are arguably way worse off since jobs paying say 100k weren't handing out 40% raises. Aggregate inflation screwed us, and the rate of inflation coming under control doesn't reverse it at all. Tariffs may wildly change things. Best case, it could result in job creation and wage increases here, though none of those jobs would be for college educated Americans, which is why the Left hates tariffs.

creativenolo 2y ago

> Unsure what the general mood is that can lead to Keir Starmer dropping 30 points in approval months after winning in a landslide The window to do your unpopular policies and announcements is the start of your government in the hope the reap the benefits just before the next election cycle. Not saying it’s the correct approach, but that’s the theory.

nitwit005 2y ago

It feels like in many cases the voters essentially do not know what they want, other than something different than what they have now. Which seems to produce the ironic result you observe, that winning can be damaging.

erichocean 2y ago

> after winning in a landslide He got like 30% of the vote, the opposite of "a landslide."

mmahemoff 2y ago

Australia (2022) and New Zealand (2023) flipped definitively too, in their respective post-Covid elections. The discontent looks like a general pattern regardless of whether the pandemic-era incumbent was nominally "left" or "right".

alex_smart 2y ago

India being a notable exception. Modi got re-elected for a third term, although with a smaller majority.

yashg 2y ago

>>incumbents all around the world have performed terribly post COVID Except India. Yes, ruling party did lose majority on it's own but they still formed the third successive government despite terrible handling of the COVID.