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FYI, the map looks horrendous for democrats after the 2030 census. Estimates give Texas +4, Florida +3, and various other southern states +1 for a total of +12
by EcommerceFlow 2y ago
FYI, the map looks horrendous for democrats after the 2030 census. Estimates give Texas +4, Florida +3, and various other southern states +1 for a total of +12 on solid red states.
- zeroonetwothree 2y agoMaybe they will stop pursuing anti growth policies? Nah that’s crazy
- thephyber 2y agoWho is ”they”? The origin of local power to stymie development is from the post WW2 years when freeways were mandated, but local communities they bisected were inevitably the politically weak ones. Now, the NIMBYs include those same VCs [1] that publicly posted that America should build at scale again… just not in their town. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/marc-andreessens-opposition-housing-project-nimby/671061/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/marc-andre...
- Redoubts 2y agoMunicipal government exists at the pleasure of the state, and the State governments can just take back land use powers at any time. "They" here is the state Dem party, and they have an easy choice to make.
- paulryanrogers 2y agoWhat are the anti growth policies of the Democratic party?
- thephyber 2y agoI don’t know about the party part (many of these date back when Republicans ruled the state), but - development zoning (restrict development to low density residential), - slowing development with required surveys (eg. CEQA) - permit friction - rejection of mass transport in growing population regions - mobs at city planning meetings, - Open Space preserves (private contracts to maintain nature in area where high demand
- culi 2y agoDemocrats had a trifecta but couldn't get DC and Puerto Rico statehood or voter right protections because of Blue Dog members of the party. They lost a critical election that led to some of the worst gerrymandered maps against them while most of their own gerrymandering attempts were overturned. Republicans now control the senate, house, judicial, and executive branch and can cement their power forever. If you don't believe me just look at Mississippi. A state where demographics alone should've made it between blue and purple. Instead, 15% of all Black adults in that state are not allowed to vote. Similarly, in Florida, 10% of all adults cannot vote. Voters passed an initiative by direct democracy to allow felons to vote, but DeSantis just blocked it anyways and the courts, which he controls, backed him. Democrats, despite winning the popular vote in all but 2 elections since 1988, are pretty much completely out of power
- umvi 2y ago> Instead, 15% of all Black adults in that state are not allowed to vote. Similarly, in Florida, 10% of all adults cannot vote. After some research it seems like this is due to felony convictions. I agree voting privileges should be restored upon completion of sentence, but dang I'm more concerned that 10% of all adults in Florida are convicted felons, what's up with that?
- 9dev 2y agoWhat’s more, those felons still count towards the state population count, and thus, the number of electoral college votes of the state…
- culi 2y agoSounds like taxation without representation to me
- johnnyanmac 2y agoCounting for the population but not actually able to vote? Where have I heard this before... The effects of the Fentanyl crisis is truly going to haunt the US for decades to come. absolutely unbelievable.
- umvi 2y agoIs this just because people are moving out of California to other states? If so, maybe California needs to change its brand of politics to have a higher retention rate.
- starik36 2y agoA bunch of people I know have moved out of the State. Mostly because housing here is completely unaffordable for an average couple. And it is doable in other states.
- _hyn3 2y agoUnaffordable relative to wages. Even though you make more in California, you don't make enough more.
- psunavy03 2y agoThis is not just California. I live in Washington and wouldn't have been able to afford my house if I was buying today. Inflation + interest rates + price jumps.
- AgentOrange1234 2y agoEven in Austin my 200k house from 2007 is 4x the price today.
- vdvsvwvwvwvwv 2y agoWow and 2007 was height of a boom.
- warner25 2y agoI like the long-term thinking, but what about other trends? Texas was quietly (it seems to me) getting less red up until this election. America is getting more diverse and more educated, and Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. So shouldn't the Trump / Republican base start shrinking? Maybe e.g. Texas +4 isn't necessarily horrendous for Democrats.
- mise_en_place 2y ago> Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. Is this really the case? My understanding, based on voting data, is that Gen Z was overwhelming for Trump and Trumpism. If anything, Baby Boomers have gone way more left than they have been in previous elections.
- warner25 2y agoI've seen no data showing Gen Z support for Trump, and I'm interested if you have some. I'm seeing[1] an 11 point lead for Harris among the age 18-29 group. That's much more narrow, of course, than the margins in 2016 and 2020, so I guess Gen Z is more supportive of Trump than Millenials were at the same age. [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls
- shkkmo 2y ago> younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. Young people (18-29) are the age demographic where Trump made his biggest gain from 2020 to 2024. The only demographic where Harris had gains as the oldest demographic. So while democrats still won the young vote, the trend is in the opposite direction.
- warner25 2y agoFair point about the trend, yes. And thanks for pointing out that Harris actually made gains with Boomers; I've verified that and updated my mental model.
- sbdhzjd 2y agoJust a reminder, the census made a mistake and gave extra congressional seats that belonged to GOP to Democrats states.
- dang 2y ago(I couldn't resist fixing a typo in your informative comment: s/consensus/census/. I hope that's ok!)
- thephyber 2y agoReminder that all of those states were amazing for Democrats pre-1968. Everything changes with time. Many of those states are becoming unaffordable because there was so much displacement from blue states. It’s not easy to predict how voters will respond in 6 or 16 years…
- seanmcdirmid 2y agoThat was more to do Nixon's southern strategy than any change in policy. Remember conservative bulwarks Jesse Helms and Trent Lott both started out as staffers for Democrats.
- thephyber 2y agoNixon’s Southern Strategy only worked because LBJ passed the Civil Rights Act. He famously said “We have lost the south for a generation” after signing it.
- seanmcdirmid 2y agoNo, it only worked because many white southerners were racists twats, and still were at least when I was living in Mississippi in the late 1980s. They still revere Andrew Jackson (founder of D) and hate Lincoln (founder of R), even though they are caucusing with the Republicans these days.
- Seattle3503 2y agoTell this to everyone upthread saying democrats need to meet the voters where they are.
- seanmcdirmid 2y agoHonestly, some voters are so twisted they ain’t worth it.