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Ask HN: What does the outcome of the race mean for tech? Particular startups?

3 points by AbstractH24 2y ago

However you feel about it happened. Curious how folks think things may (or may not) change now.

anovikov 2y ago
For business? Nothing at all bad. People will feel like shit, but the economy will boom.
- taylodl 2y ago
  > but the economy will boom That's not what happened during Trump's last term. His tariffs wrecked the economy before the pandemic had even started. Now he's promising to double-down on those failed policies. Now, if by "boom" you meant "explode" and fall to pieces, then yes, the economy will "boom."
  - anovikov 2y ago
    That doesn't show at all on GDP stats. 2017 to 2019 were good, above average growth years. And Covid dip was less pronounced that in any other free/rich country (of course at the cost of much more people ending up dead so it's not necessarily a good thing).
    - taylodl 2y ago
      From a GDP perspective, the Biden economy has been stellar - but that's not what people say, is it?
      - anovikov 2y ago
        Blame algorithms that prioritise negative content because people click it more, creating a perception of hellscape when things are going just fine.
zoezoezoezoe 2y ago
I would personally like to believe that tech would remain the somewhat untouched by geopolitics sanctitude as it somewhat usually is. I dont see any of trumps policies around tariffs affecting tech, and unless you work in a sector that will be affected in another way, I think tech will keep running as it always has been, if anything, more unfettered by the law since Lina Khan is surely on the chopping block, so say goodbye to any chance that big business gets regulated in the near future.
- ttyprintk 2y ago
  I’ll take that bet. Business will adapt and at least Apple was able to change the plan in the last Trump admin. But Tim Apple will be talking to Musk now, not Trump. I wager that the fees for H1-B and O-1 will rise prohibitively, or be selective to big businesses. Tariff strategy will be imperfect, so mundane things like cell towers, routers, etc. won’t be upgraded at the pace we’re used to. I see an opportunity for state-side cybersecurity business and medical supplies. Domestic companies can live off new Federal contracts without innovating. I see an opportunity for firms based in loyal states. Robert F Kennedy Jr will remove fluoride from water systems that the Feds run. Maybe we should be getting it from supplements anyway. Opportunity there.
  - greentxt 2y ago
    >Maybe we should be getting it from supplements anyway. Supplements as in flouride toothpaste and mouthwash? I think most everyone does, aside from those on HN who read Scott Alexander's blog.
    - ttyprintk 2y ago
      Yup. An easy win. Maybe he’ll get a Robert F Kennedy Jr Federal holiday.
heartag 2y ago
I worked for a startup designing solar panel meters during the 2016 administration, and know firsthand how damaging it was. The tariffs put in place affected raw materials for the panels, but somehow not the finished products from overseas that we were competing with. The entire R&D branch had to be frozen out until it was over.
solardev 2y ago
I'm sad that it means antitrust is basically dead now and Google probably won't be broken up: https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-expected-shift-course-antitrust-stop-google-breakup-2024-11-06/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-expected-shift-cour...
gaws 2y ago
Soaring profits. More outsourcing. More layoffs. Even more interest in AI.

3 points by AbstractH24 2y ago

However you feel about it happened. Curious how folks think things may (or may not) change now.

anovikov 2y ago

For business? Nothing at all bad. People will feel like shit, but the economy will boom.

taylodl 2y ago
> but the economy will boom That's not what happened during Trump's last term. His tariffs wrecked the economy before the pandemic had even started. Now he's promising to double-down on those failed policies. Now, if by "boom" you meant "explode" and fall to pieces, then yes, the economy will "boom."
- anovikov 2y ago
  That doesn't show at all on GDP stats. 2017 to 2019 were good, above average growth years. And Covid dip was less pronounced that in any other free/rich country (of course at the cost of much more people ending up dead so it's not necessarily a good thing).
  - taylodl 2y ago
    From a GDP perspective, the Biden economy has been stellar - but that's not what people say, is it?
    - anovikov 2y ago
      Blame algorithms that prioritise negative content because people click it more, creating a perception of hellscape when things are going just fine.

zoezoezoezoe 2y ago

I would personally like to believe that tech would remain the somewhat untouched by geopolitics sanctitude as it somewhat usually is. I dont see any of trumps policies around tariffs affecting tech, and unless you work in a sector that will be affected in another way, I think tech will keep running as it always has been, if anything, more unfettered by the law since Lina Khan is surely on the chopping block, so say goodbye to any chance that big business gets regulated in the near future.

ttyprintk 2y ago
I’ll take that bet. Business will adapt and at least Apple was able to change the plan in the last Trump admin. But Tim Apple will be talking to Musk now, not Trump. I wager that the fees for H1-B and O-1 will rise prohibitively, or be selective to big businesses. Tariff strategy will be imperfect, so mundane things like cell towers, routers, etc. won’t be upgraded at the pace we’re used to. I see an opportunity for state-side cybersecurity business and medical supplies. Domestic companies can live off new Federal contracts without innovating. I see an opportunity for firms based in loyal states. Robert F Kennedy Jr will remove fluoride from water systems that the Feds run. Maybe we should be getting it from supplements anyway. Opportunity there.
- greentxt 2y ago
  >Maybe we should be getting it from supplements anyway. Supplements as in flouride toothpaste and mouthwash? I think most everyone does, aside from those on HN who read Scott Alexander's blog.
  - ttyprintk 2y ago
    Yup. An easy win. Maybe he’ll get a Robert F Kennedy Jr Federal holiday.

heartag 2y ago

I worked for a startup designing solar panel meters during the 2016 administration, and know firsthand how damaging it was. The tariffs put in place affected raw materials for the panels, but somehow not the finished products from overseas that we were competing with. The entire R&D branch had to be frozen out until it was over.

solardev 2y ago

I'm sad that it means antitrust is basically dead now and Google probably won't be broken up: https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-expected-shift-course-antitrust-stop-google-breakup-2024-11-06/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-expected-shift-cour...

gaws 2y ago

Soaring profits. More outsourcing. More layoffs. Even more interest in AI.