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It seems that the world is dividing into two camps- the ones who want to hunker down and bunker down into mini-empires, shunning globalisation. Expecting great

It seems that the world is dividing into two camps- the ones who want to hunker down and bunker down into mini-empires, shunning globalisation. Expecting great rewards, by turning economics into trapdoor functions with loads of export and zero imports and tarifs as shield. And the others, who don't want - because they can't. For some globalisation is a navel, a lifeline without which there countries economies would wither and die. The exact same layout pre-WW2.

Maxion 2y ago
The writing is starting to become quite stark on the wall, soon the only ones who don't see it are the ones intentionally turning their head away.
- BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
  I’m just stupid, what’s on the wall?
  - ForHackernews 2y ago
    Arguably the next world war. The vibes are very 1913.
    - Maxion 2y ago
      Not necessarily a new world war, though the probabilities of that is definitely increasing. This will be a big shift in power, and become a more inward focus globally. If Trump starts more trade wars, we will all be worse off.
      - johnisgood 2y ago
        Did Biden start or continue any? The fueling of war in Ukraine and Middle East (Israel vs other countries) is already as bad as it gets.
        InDubioProRubio 2y ago
        The idea that a king or monarch or president has the ability to alter any physical setting and circumstance is ridiculous. The us has been reacting more or less to the middle east turmoil ever since the cold war. And in syria in the end not even that. Events can happen outside the influence and outside of control of the most powerful nation on the planet. This paranoid "a power must be behind" it - is limiting the perception- that there is nothing there, just running out resources, human overpopulation and war and chaos and players stirring the pot of indigestible soups in the hopes that useful float some may come up with the bodies.
        lenkite 2y ago
        " The us has been reacting more or less to the middle east turmoil ever since the cold war." Yeah, that is why the U.S. is still occupying Syria and stealing Syrian oil. Americans do love to pat themselves on the back when they invade other nations for resources.
        ForHackernews 2y ago
        There isn't an eye roll emoji big enough for this. With fracking, American domestic oil production is way up. It would make zero sense to go halfway around the world to steal Syrian oil, even if that were happening.
        lenkite 2y ago
        There isn't an eye roll emoji big enough for not understanding that stealing local oil is far cheaper than transporting it for supplying the vast number of U.S. forces in the middle-east. You will never hear it from American media except for the one time they accidentally mentioned the U.S. contractor in charge of the occupied Syrian oil wells. I suggest speaking to a Syrian national - the theft of oil by the U.S. is a well-known fact there. It will never make it to the Western news except as propaganda to support the Kurds. https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-occupation-loots-tons-of-syrian-oil-smuggles-them-into-ir https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-occupation-l... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/03/delta-crescent-energy-syrian-oil-391033 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/03/delta-crescent-ener...
    - kragen 2y ago
      The current world war. It started ten years ago.
  - drooby 2y ago
    Without trade, war becomes more easy to justify as cost-effective.
- b112 2y ago
  Rebalanced local production isn't necessarily a rejection of globalization. It is ridiculous to have a military, for example, depend upon supplies which may be cut off during conflict. It is also ridiculous to have your entire economy dependent upon foreign powers which seek to subvert and destabilize you. The US and most of the West undertook plans to "uplift" countries such as China in the 70s. The thought was that by opening up trade, prosperity would follow, a middle class would follow, an upper class, and democratic principles might follow. This had not entirely failed, but at the same time that experiment has been taken too far, especially during the current climate. Most specifically, China's refusal to sign on to a key, pivotal aspect of access to western markets, IP, eg copyright and patent law, means that their access to these markets is slowly being withdrawn. What we granted 50 years ago, open, mostly tariff free access to our markets is being taken away, removed as conditions for that access are not being respected. Only China is to blame for this. The rampant IP theft, the lack of respect for the collective market's rules, the flagrant and egregious espionage, have resulted in this fate. The West will still trade with anyone that follows such common market principles. The West is not closing down international trade. The West is instead ensuring that when we completely cut off China, and its lack of regard for our common market rules, that we are not harmed. Thinking this is all about a reduction in trade is wrong. None of this new, or a surprise to anyone paying attention to geopolitical issues during the last 50 years. When the markets opened, when tariffs were dropped, China was told the rules for that access. In the ensuing decades, attempts to negotiate and work with China over IP issues have seen zero progress. We offer access with open hands under specific terms. We happily wanted to engage in profitable business ventures. China, its leadership perhaps thinking it is clever and somehow tricking us, did not realize that the West is very open, forgiving, and willing to discuss a lot prior to hitting an impasse. We believe in democratic principles after all, and try to negotiate. But now that this next segment of the process has started, China has effectively shot itself in the foot. Like a noisy person repeatedly warned in a movie theater, it is being shown the door. Access to our market is being withdrawn for China. Expect this to hit the next level in perhaps 5 years, where all imports hit heavy tariffs... after we've ensured our stability in key areas. Gradual increases in Chinese import tariffs will ensure local businesses spring up, replacing what will become more expensive Chinese alternatives. It will be an economic boom for the West.
corimaith 2y ago
Mercantalism begets more mercantalism. Many of those who don't want the "end" of globalism are the same ones pursuing mercantilist policies despite decades of calls of reform from the developed import markets. You can't run a massive trade surplus against USA, gouging their industries while simultaneously calling for the "fall of Westen hegemony" forever. "The Global South" had a chance for the last 20 years to peacefully rise up into the Liberal International Order, they blew it all for the sake their own pride and greed. When any sort of adherence of rules or frameworks is labelled as "imperialism" then unfortunately we'll all have to go back and suffer the 1920s to understand why those rules exist again.
ToDougie 2y ago
The trade wars never stopped, some countries just took a break.
nonethewiser 2y ago
"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide." - Romance of the Three Kingdoms It's really is kind of inevitable that this will happen. We've had unprecedented peace and prosperity for many decades. Everyone is getting rich and fat (relatively speaking) and more capable of projecting their power and protecting their interests. The unification of Europe (rebuilding, euro EU), the rise of China, the nuclearization of North Korea, etc. There is no governing body above states - its an anarchic system in that regard. It's just not possible to achieve full globalization and keep it. We'd need something to fundamentally change the game like competition with another world. Im not sure if you've noticed but the world order has been degrading since the 90's.

Maxion 2y ago

The writing is starting to become quite stark on the wall, soon the only ones who don't see it are the ones intentionally turning their head away.

BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
I’m just stupid, what’s on the wall?
- ForHackernews 2y ago
  Arguably the next world war. The vibes are very 1913.
  - Maxion 2y ago
    Not necessarily a new world war, though the probabilities of that is definitely increasing. This will be a big shift in power, and become a more inward focus globally. If Trump starts more trade wars, we will all be worse off.
    - johnisgood 2y ago
      Did Biden start or continue any? The fueling of war in Ukraine and Middle East (Israel vs other countries) is already as bad as it gets.
      - InDubioProRubio 2y ago
        The idea that a king or monarch or president has the ability to alter any physical setting and circumstance is ridiculous. The us has been reacting more or less to the middle east turmoil ever since the cold war. And in syria in the end not even that. Events can happen outside the influence and outside of control of the most powerful nation on the planet. This paranoid "a power must be behind" it - is limiting the perception- that there is nothing there, just running out resources, human overpopulation and war and chaos and players stirring the pot of indigestible soups in the hopes that useful float some may come up with the bodies.
        lenkite 2y ago
        " The us has been reacting more or less to the middle east turmoil ever since the cold war." Yeah, that is why the U.S. is still occupying Syria and stealing Syrian oil. Americans do love to pat themselves on the back when they invade other nations for resources.
        ForHackernews 2y ago
        There isn't an eye roll emoji big enough for this. With fracking, American domestic oil production is way up. It would make zero sense to go halfway around the world to steal Syrian oil, even if that were happening.
        lenkite 2y ago
        There isn't an eye roll emoji big enough for not understanding that stealing local oil is far cheaper than transporting it for supplying the vast number of U.S. forces in the middle-east. You will never hear it from American media except for the one time they accidentally mentioned the U.S. contractor in charge of the occupied Syrian oil wells. I suggest speaking to a Syrian national - the theft of oil by the U.S. is a well-known fact there. It will never make it to the Western news except as propaganda to support the Kurds. https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-occupation-loots-tons-of-syrian-oil-smuggles-them-into-ir https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-occupation-l... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/03/delta-crescent-energy-syrian-oil-391033 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/03/delta-crescent-ener...
  - kragen 2y ago
    The current world war. It started ten years ago.
- drooby 2y ago
  Without trade, war becomes more easy to justify as cost-effective.
b112 2y ago
Rebalanced local production isn't necessarily a rejection of globalization. It is ridiculous to have a military, for example, depend upon supplies which may be cut off during conflict. It is also ridiculous to have your entire economy dependent upon foreign powers which seek to subvert and destabilize you. The US and most of the West undertook plans to "uplift" countries such as China in the 70s. The thought was that by opening up trade, prosperity would follow, a middle class would follow, an upper class, and democratic principles might follow. This had not entirely failed, but at the same time that experiment has been taken too far, especially during the current climate. Most specifically, China's refusal to sign on to a key, pivotal aspect of access to western markets, IP, eg copyright and patent law, means that their access to these markets is slowly being withdrawn. What we granted 50 years ago, open, mostly tariff free access to our markets is being taken away, removed as conditions for that access are not being respected. Only China is to blame for this. The rampant IP theft, the lack of respect for the collective market's rules, the flagrant and egregious espionage, have resulted in this fate. The West will still trade with anyone that follows such common market principles. The West is not closing down international trade. The West is instead ensuring that when we completely cut off China, and its lack of regard for our common market rules, that we are not harmed. Thinking this is all about a reduction in trade is wrong. None of this new, or a surprise to anyone paying attention to geopolitical issues during the last 50 years. When the markets opened, when tariffs were dropped, China was told the rules for that access. In the ensuing decades, attempts to negotiate and work with China over IP issues have seen zero progress. We offer access with open hands under specific terms. We happily wanted to engage in profitable business ventures. China, its leadership perhaps thinking it is clever and somehow tricking us, did not realize that the West is very open, forgiving, and willing to discuss a lot prior to hitting an impasse. We believe in democratic principles after all, and try to negotiate. But now that this next segment of the process has started, China has effectively shot itself in the foot. Like a noisy person repeatedly warned in a movie theater, it is being shown the door. Access to our market is being withdrawn for China. Expect this to hit the next level in perhaps 5 years, where all imports hit heavy tariffs... after we've ensured our stability in key areas. Gradual increases in Chinese import tariffs will ensure local businesses spring up, replacing what will become more expensive Chinese alternatives. It will be an economic boom for the West.

corimaith 2y ago

Mercantalism begets more mercantalism. Many of those who don't want the "end" of globalism are the same ones pursuing mercantilist policies despite decades of calls of reform from the developed import markets. You can't run a massive trade surplus against USA, gouging their industries while simultaneously calling for the "fall of Westen hegemony" forever. "The Global South" had a chance for the last 20 years to peacefully rise up into the Liberal International Order, they blew it all for the sake their own pride and greed. When any sort of adherence of rules or frameworks is labelled as "imperialism" then unfortunately we'll all have to go back and suffer the 1920s to understand why those rules exist again.

ToDougie 2y ago

The trade wars never stopped, some countries just took a break.

nonethewiser 2y ago

"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide." - Romance of the Three Kingdoms It's really is kind of inevitable that this will happen. We've had unprecedented peace and prosperity for many decades. Everyone is getting rich and fat (relatively speaking) and more capable of projecting their power and protecting their interests. The unification of Europe (rebuilding, euro EU), the rise of China, the nuclearization of North Korea, etc. There is no governing body above states - its an anarchic system in that regard. It's just not possible to achieve full globalization and keep it. We'd need something to fundamentally change the game like competition with another world. Im not sure if you've noticed but the world order has been degrading since the 90's.