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The hardware production is the race. I don't like BYD, but they've taken full advantage of Tesla's unwillingness to deliver on a truly economic vehicle. Until T

The hardware production is the race. I don't like BYD, but they've taken full advantage of Tesla's unwillingness to deliver on a truly economic vehicle. Until Tesla takes that crown, the entire AI discussion isn't really even on the table.

jansan 2y ago
What I find baffling is that Volkswagen has absolutely nothing to offer in the low price segment. We were lucky to get an eUp! when the price was reasonable, but after they stopped production there is a glaring hole in their portfolio, and of course the Chinese will try to fill that
- talldayo 2y ago
  Thank goodness all of our hype, investment and subsidies went to one man that doesn't even intend to create human jobs or sell cars to anyone the rich and supremely insecure. Sure was worth the entire free market going gaga for this tasty nothingburger, yesiree.
  - FeepingCreature 2y ago
    I mean, that doesn't really excuse VW's failure.
- deelowe 2y ago
  I suspect the engineers at traditional automakers HATE electric vehicles and this is likely causing massive delays. The vast vast majority of those engineers and other technical folks have careers which are are utterly dependent on ICE development and support. This sort of transformative shift rarely happens from within. At least not easily.
  - bux93 2y ago
    Probably not the engineers, but the suits. Switching over from ICE is an enormous business problem because it's not just about manufacturing, but the whole after market ecosystem. EVs require less maintenance, but dealerships make most of their money on replacement parts. Getting rid of some uppity ICE engineers (in so far as they're not retiring) is the least of your problems as an ICE automaker.
  - jansan 2y ago
    As an engineer who used to work in the car industry I do not think the engineers hate electric cars. Also, they are not the ones making the decisions. Volkswagen basically bet the farm on electric vehicles. They were late to the party, but went all in, so you cannot blame them for trying to block EVs. I rather suspect that making cheap EVs is just extremely difficult if you intend to make a profit. I bet they lost a good sum of money on every eUp! they produced (here in Germany you could get them for 15,000€ at the right time, which is a steal), so they decided to quit producing it, which IMO is a real shame, because it is such a cool car for inner city commuting.
Animats 2y ago
The entire US auto industry is unwilling to deliver on a truly economic vehicle. The "more crap per car" mindset is resulting in huge parking lots full of overpriced unsold cars. The "electric car is a premium product" mindset is obsolete, but continues to show up in US auto pricing. Amusingly, the Ford Transit commercial van is cheaper in electric than in gas-powered. But on the consumer product side, there's still a big price premium for electric, and you usually have to get an excessive 'trim level'. Stellantis screwed up so badly that sales dropped about 40% and the CEO was fired, after collecting the biggest bonus in automotive history for "cutting costs". Betting on "mild hybrids" and extra post-sale fees was a disaster. Nobody in US automotive is investing in solid state batteries the way BYD and CATL are. There's technical risk, but if those things work, IC cars are over. 9 minute charge and a few hundred miles of range.
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  > Nobody in US automotive is investing in solid state batteries the way BYD and CATL are. There's technical risk, but if those things work, IC cars are over. 9 minute charge and a few hundred miles of range. This, even if you embargo the new tech, if the new tech is a lot better, it will create a more broad economic disadvantage in not adopting it.
  - Animats 2y ago
    There's a tipping point coming. Once 9 minute charging works, charging stations work like gas stations, not parking lots. Nobody stays long. It makes sense for legacy gas stations to rip out the fuel pumps and tanks, and put in fast chargers.
    - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
      Gas stations have a lot of infrastructure for catching oil run off, they could put in superchargers, but it would be a horrible use of land. The superchargers can literally go anywhere with power access since EVs don't leak anything other than possibly some coolant. If gas stations become obsolete, they will be subject to rehabilitation before they used for charging.
ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
That might be your personal perspective, but the market's attention is on the AI aspect. Tesla's market cap is higher than that of any other western car company. And not because of their ability to mold metal. In the future, a car without self-driving software will be as useless as a computer without an operating system. Hardware companies will be at the mercy of software companies. All the margins will be made in software. Hardware already has super thin margins nowadays. Nokia didn't fail because of the way they made phone hardware.
- kavalg 2y ago
  Can you be more specific on the use cases that comprise that? E.g. is it driverless company fleets, enabling elderly to drive, making it possible to e.g. sleep while driving, being fancy etc?
- ppsreejith 2y ago
  It's possible that self driving can be 'added on' using something like Comma: https://x.com/comma_ai/status/1795596189544722695 https://x.com/comma_ai/status/1795596189544722695

jansan 2y ago

What I find baffling is that Volkswagen has absolutely nothing to offer in the low price segment. We were lucky to get an eUp! when the price was reasonable, but after they stopped production there is a glaring hole in their portfolio, and of course the Chinese will try to fill that

talldayo 2y ago
Thank goodness all of our hype, investment and subsidies went to one man that doesn't even intend to create human jobs or sell cars to anyone the rich and supremely insecure. Sure was worth the entire free market going gaga for this tasty nothingburger, yesiree.
- FeepingCreature 2y ago
  I mean, that doesn't really excuse VW's failure.
deelowe 2y ago
I suspect the engineers at traditional automakers HATE electric vehicles and this is likely causing massive delays. The vast vast majority of those engineers and other technical folks have careers which are are utterly dependent on ICE development and support. This sort of transformative shift rarely happens from within. At least not easily.
- bux93 2y ago
  Probably not the engineers, but the suits. Switching over from ICE is an enormous business problem because it's not just about manufacturing, but the whole after market ecosystem. EVs require less maintenance, but dealerships make most of their money on replacement parts. Getting rid of some uppity ICE engineers (in so far as they're not retiring) is the least of your problems as an ICE automaker.
- jansan 2y ago
  As an engineer who used to work in the car industry I do not think the engineers hate electric cars. Also, they are not the ones making the decisions. Volkswagen basically bet the farm on electric vehicles. They were late to the party, but went all in, so you cannot blame them for trying to block EVs. I rather suspect that making cheap EVs is just extremely difficult if you intend to make a profit. I bet they lost a good sum of money on every eUp! they produced (here in Germany you could get them for 15,000€ at the right time, which is a steal), so they decided to quit producing it, which IMO is a real shame, because it is such a cool car for inner city commuting.

Animats 2y ago

The entire US auto industry is unwilling to deliver on a truly economic vehicle. The "more crap per car" mindset is resulting in huge parking lots full of overpriced unsold cars. The "electric car is a premium product" mindset is obsolete, but continues to show up in US auto pricing. Amusingly, the Ford Transit commercial van is cheaper in electric than in gas-powered. But on the consumer product side, there's still a big price premium for electric, and you usually have to get an excessive 'trim level'. Stellantis screwed up so badly that sales dropped about 40% and the CEO was fired, after collecting the biggest bonus in automotive history for "cutting costs". Betting on "mild hybrids" and extra post-sale fees was a disaster. Nobody in US automotive is investing in solid state batteries the way BYD and CATL are. There's technical risk, but if those things work, IC cars are over. 9 minute charge and a few hundred miles of range.

seanmcdirmid 2y ago
> Nobody in US automotive is investing in solid state batteries the way BYD and CATL are. There's technical risk, but if those things work, IC cars are over. 9 minute charge and a few hundred miles of range. This, even if you embargo the new tech, if the new tech is a lot better, it will create a more broad economic disadvantage in not adopting it.
- Animats 2y ago
  There's a tipping point coming. Once 9 minute charging works, charging stations work like gas stations, not parking lots. Nobody stays long. It makes sense for legacy gas stations to rip out the fuel pumps and tanks, and put in fast chargers.
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    Gas stations have a lot of infrastructure for catching oil run off, they could put in superchargers, but it would be a horrible use of land. The superchargers can literally go anywhere with power access since EVs don't leak anything other than possibly some coolant. If gas stations become obsolete, they will be subject to rehabilitation before they used for charging.

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago

That might be your personal perspective, but the market's attention is on the AI aspect. Tesla's market cap is higher than that of any other western car company. And not because of their ability to mold metal. In the future, a car without self-driving software will be as useless as a computer without an operating system. Hardware companies will be at the mercy of software companies. All the margins will be made in software. Hardware already has super thin margins nowadays. Nokia didn't fail because of the way they made phone hardware.

kavalg 2y ago
Can you be more specific on the use cases that comprise that? E.g. is it driverless company fleets, enabling elderly to drive, making it possible to e.g. sleep while driving, being fancy etc?
ppsreejith 2y ago
It's possible that self driving can be 'added on' using something like Comma: https://x.com/comma_ai/status/1795596189544722695 https://x.com/comma_ai/status/1795596189544722695