4 ms·

That’s the beauty of it. If you’re sure it’s wrong, you can profit off the gambling and manipulation.

by chatmasta 2y ago

Retr0id 2y ago
You can also profit off regular gambling and manipulation by buying stocks in gambling companies.
- bbor 2y ago
  Or really day trading in its entirety, IMHO. Imagine I had a casino game that all the best experts insist you have slim-to-no chance of beating the odds on, and that countless hordes of people just like you have lost their life savings on. Is it not gambling just because you have a system for picking a spot on the roulette wheel?
  - freefaler 2y ago
    Not really. The house takes 2% of the winnings (current polymarket fee structure). You're betting against other people, not against the house. If you are correct and especially if you know something that other people don't know you may take a very large percentage of the pool. So this is a more "merit" based system when critical thinking and correct prediction pay well.
- freefaler 2y ago
  Every prediction market has a resolution date. Stock market does not. In that sense the prediction market "predicts" an external event on a particular date and this is the big difference. Stocks may rise of fall based on the perception of the market. A bet would get resolved based not on the perception of the people, but on the event itself. (or on the UMA dispute vote, but mostly the system is working). That's why it doesn't matter how skewed/wrong a particular bet is (like Trump chances). If your think that the market is wrong, you get a better return on your money. And the resolution date + smart contract creates the possibility to earn if you are correct.
  - Retr0id 2y ago
    However, many stocks pay dividends at fixed intervals, based on objective metrics.
soneca 2y ago
Even if I know that is bullshit if someone claims to know the next number of a roulette and backs it up going all-in on black, it is not rational for me to bet on red.
- floobertoober 2y ago
  But if their having placed a bet makes your opposing bet cheaper, then it can! : )
- boilerupnc 2y ago
  At least one person has figured out how to beat roulette [0]. I’d follow his lead [0] https://archive.ph/Hc0Kh https://archive.ph/Hc0Kh
tshaddox 2y ago
The thing about gambling is that even if you understand the nature of gambling it doesn't mean you can reliably win money from gambling.
- bbor 2y ago
  Sure you can, especially if you’re rich! You just can’t reliably know when you can reliably win money ;) Epistemology strikes yet again
- freefaler 2y ago
  It's not a random chance gambling like a casino. It's more like active stock trading. Many traders (especially retail) lose money, but many make money. Polymarket is good when you understand the situation better than the people you're betting against. And the bet you're making can be on what you know. My first 100 USDC I've made was when the CrowdStrike news hit. I saw a bet that it was a "hack". As a programmer I knew it wasn't a hack based on the technical information I read. The bet was 70 not a hack/30 hack. I bet that is was not a hack and got 30% return for 2 days. Many people "bet" everyday. Every resource allocation decision is a bet. Polymarket is the same. Don't bet on "what will Trump say" or "the price of BTC in a week", but there a plenty of bets where you can make a reasonable prediction and get consistent returns.
  - krainboltgreene 2y ago
    > It's more like active stock trading. That is also random chance gambling.
    - freefaler 2y ago
      If it was, than people like Buffet, Stan Druckenmiller or Jim Simmons wouldn't exist. They are trading and they are making bets. Simmons makes milions of them everyday :), Buffet makes 1 per month. But they are active stock traders not a passive index investors.
      - 2y ago
iwontberude 2y ago
Except the people who know best are in the US and can't file 1099 on their winnings without implicitly admitting to a crime. Any American dumb enough to invest in Polymarket deserves to lose their money.
- yespocolypse 2y ago
  Any fed dumb enough to waste tax dollars chasing down the client side of the usual small stakes token 2-4 figure betting this involves rather than polymarket (et al) directly deserves to be fired, since it almost certainly is a net negative to the taxpayer and will do nothing to stop this kind of betting.
  - iwontberude 2y ago
    This country is rule by law, the laws regularly broken will be weaponized for political purposes.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> If you’re sure it’s wrong, you can profit off the gambling and manipulation Not if you’re American and want to respect the law!
BobaFloutist 2y ago
Right, but I'm also ethically opposed to the industry

That’s the beauty of it. If you’re sure it’s wrong, you can profit off the gambling and manipulation.

Retr0id 2y ago

You can also profit off regular gambling and manipulation by buying stocks in gambling companies.

bbor 2y ago
Or really day trading in its entirety, IMHO. Imagine I had a casino game that all the best experts insist you have slim-to-no chance of beating the odds on, and that countless hordes of people just like you have lost their life savings on. Is it not gambling just because you have a system for picking a spot on the roulette wheel?
- freefaler 2y ago
  Not really. The house takes 2% of the winnings (current polymarket fee structure). You're betting against other people, not against the house. If you are correct and especially if you know something that other people don't know you may take a very large percentage of the pool. So this is a more "merit" based system when critical thinking and correct prediction pay well.
freefaler 2y ago
Every prediction market has a resolution date. Stock market does not. In that sense the prediction market "predicts" an external event on a particular date and this is the big difference. Stocks may rise of fall based on the perception of the market. A bet would get resolved based not on the perception of the people, but on the event itself. (or on the UMA dispute vote, but mostly the system is working). That's why it doesn't matter how skewed/wrong a particular bet is (like Trump chances). If your think that the market is wrong, you get a better return on your money. And the resolution date + smart contract creates the possibility to earn if you are correct.
- Retr0id 2y ago
  However, many stocks pay dividends at fixed intervals, based on objective metrics.

soneca 2y ago

Even if I know that is bullshit if someone claims to know the next number of a roulette and backs it up going all-in on black, it is not rational for me to bet on red.

floobertoober 2y ago
But if their having placed a bet makes your opposing bet cheaper, then it can! : )
boilerupnc 2y ago
At least one person has figured out how to beat roulette [0]. I’d follow his lead [0] https://archive.ph/Hc0Kh https://archive.ph/Hc0Kh

tshaddox 2y ago

The thing about gambling is that even if you understand the nature of gambling it doesn't mean you can reliably win money from gambling.

bbor 2y ago
Sure you can, especially if you’re rich! You just can’t reliably know when you can reliably win money ;) Epistemology strikes yet again
freefaler 2y ago
It's not a random chance gambling like a casino. It's more like active stock trading. Many traders (especially retail) lose money, but many make money. Polymarket is good when you understand the situation better than the people you're betting against. And the bet you're making can be on what you know. My first 100 USDC I've made was when the CrowdStrike news hit. I saw a bet that it was a "hack". As a programmer I knew it wasn't a hack based on the technical information I read. The bet was 70 not a hack/30 hack. I bet that is was not a hack and got 30% return for 2 days. Many people "bet" everyday. Every resource allocation decision is a bet. Polymarket is the same. Don't bet on "what will Trump say" or "the price of BTC in a week", but there a plenty of bets where you can make a reasonable prediction and get consistent returns.
- krainboltgreene 2y ago
  > It's more like active stock trading. That is also random chance gambling.
  - freefaler 2y ago
    If it was, than people like Buffet, Stan Druckenmiller or Jim Simmons wouldn't exist. They are trading and they are making bets. Simmons makes milions of them everyday :), Buffet makes 1 per month. But they are active stock traders not a passive index investors.
    - 2y ago

iwontberude 2y ago

Except the people who know best are in the US and can't file 1099 on their winnings without implicitly admitting to a crime. Any American dumb enough to invest in Polymarket deserves to lose their money.

yespocolypse 2y ago
Any fed dumb enough to waste tax dollars chasing down the client side of the usual small stakes token 2-4 figure betting this involves rather than polymarket (et al) directly deserves to be fired, since it almost certainly is a net negative to the taxpayer and will do nothing to stop this kind of betting.
- iwontberude 2y ago
  This country is rule by law, the laws regularly broken will be weaponized for political purposes.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> If you’re sure it’s wrong, you can profit off the gambling and manipulation Not if you’re American and want to respect the law!

BobaFloutist 2y ago

Right, but I'm also ethically opposed to the industry