4 ms·

Polymarket is a new thing and it's throwing a lot of political pundits off their tracks because they treat it as political sentiment indicator, but it's all jus

Polymarket is a new thing and it's throwing a lot of political pundits off their tracks because they treat it as political sentiment indicator, but it's all just gambling and manipulation.

chatmasta 2y ago
That’s the beauty of it. If you’re sure it’s wrong, you can profit off the gambling and manipulation.
- Retr0id 2y ago
  You can also profit off regular gambling and manipulation by buying stocks in gambling companies.
  - bbor 2y ago
    Or really day trading in its entirety, IMHO. Imagine I had a casino game that all the best experts insist you have slim-to-no chance of beating the odds on, and that countless hordes of people just like you have lost their life savings on. Is it not gambling just because you have a system for picking a spot on the roulette wheel?
    - freefaler 2y ago
      Not really. The house takes 2% of the winnings (current polymarket fee structure). You're betting against other people, not against the house. If you are correct and especially if you know something that other people don't know you may take a very large percentage of the pool. So this is a more "merit" based system when critical thinking and correct prediction pay well.
  - freefaler 2y ago
    Every prediction market has a resolution date. Stock market does not. In that sense the prediction market "predicts" an external event on a particular date and this is the big difference. Stocks may rise of fall based on the perception of the market. A bet would get resolved based not on the perception of the people, but on the event itself. (or on the UMA dispute vote, but mostly the system is working). That's why it doesn't matter how skewed/wrong a particular bet is (like Trump chances). If your think that the market is wrong, you get a better return on your money. And the resolution date + smart contract creates the possibility to earn if you are correct.
    - Retr0id 2y ago
      However, many stocks pay dividends at fixed intervals, based on objective metrics.
- soneca 2y ago
  Even if I know that is bullshit if someone claims to know the next number of a roulette and backs it up going all-in on black, it is not rational for me to bet on red.
  - floobertoober 2y ago
    But if their having placed a bet makes your opposing bet cheaper, then it can! : )
  - boilerupnc 2y ago
    At least one person has figured out how to beat roulette [0]. I’d follow his lead [0] https://archive.ph/Hc0Kh https://archive.ph/Hc0Kh
- tshaddox 2y ago
  The thing about gambling is that even if you understand the nature of gambling it doesn't mean you can reliably win money from gambling.
  - bbor 2y ago
    Sure you can, especially if you’re rich! You just can’t reliably know when you can reliably win money ;) Epistemology strikes yet again
  - freefaler 2y ago
    It's not a random chance gambling like a casino. It's more like active stock trading. Many traders (especially retail) lose money, but many make money. Polymarket is good when you understand the situation better than the people you're betting against. And the bet you're making can be on what you know. My first 100 USDC I've made was when the CrowdStrike news hit. I saw a bet that it was a "hack". As a programmer I knew it wasn't a hack based on the technical information I read. The bet was 70 not a hack/30 hack. I bet that is was not a hack and got 30% return for 2 days. Many people "bet" everyday. Every resource allocation decision is a bet. Polymarket is the same. Don't bet on "what will Trump say" or "the price of BTC in a week", but there a plenty of bets where you can make a reasonable prediction and get consistent returns.
    - krainboltgreene 2y ago
      > It's more like active stock trading. That is also random chance gambling.
      - freefaler 2y ago
        If it was, than people like Buffet, Stan Druckenmiller or Jim Simmons wouldn't exist. They are trading and they are making bets. Simmons makes milions of them everyday :), Buffet makes 1 per month. But they are active stock traders not a passive index investors.
        2y ago
- iwontberude 2y ago
  Except the people who know best are in the US and can't file 1099 on their winnings without implicitly admitting to a crime. Any American dumb enough to invest in Polymarket deserves to lose their money.
  - yespocolypse 2y ago
    Any fed dumb enough to waste tax dollars chasing down the client side of the usual small stakes token 2-4 figure betting this involves rather than polymarket (et al) directly deserves to be fired, since it almost certainly is a net negative to the taxpayer and will do nothing to stop this kind of betting.
    - iwontberude 2y ago
      This country is rule by law, the laws regularly broken will be weaponized for political purposes.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > If you’re sure it’s wrong, you can profit off the gambling and manipulation Not if you’re American and want to respect the law!
- BobaFloutist 2y ago
  Right, but I'm also ethically opposed to the industry
TrackerFF 2y ago
Statistically speaking, I'd expect some hardcore sample bias, if using Polymarket to model the US population.
- ErikAugust 2y ago
  The biggest bettor is French, apparently: https://www.reuters.com/world/polymarket-says-mystery-trump-bettor-is-french-national-2024-10-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/polymarket-says-mystery-trump-...
  - tim333 2y ago
    That guy bet $46m. Current betting volume is $3.3bn.
ajross 2y ago
So, that's true. But the point of the linked article is that Polymarket is clearly marketing to US consumers, a market it isn't licensed to serve and that it claims it tries to prevent (via an IP block, anyway). It's not illegal to be running a gambling and manipulation site per se. PredictIt and Kalshi do it above board. Polymarket appears to be engaging in at least a little bit of fraud here.
floobertoober 2y ago
For me personally, I placed a bet for my non-favored candidate so that either my person wins, or I win some amount of money. I'm using it kind of like insurance or hedging. Unfortunately if enough people use it this way, it probably no longer works as a predictor
- ttamslam 2y ago
  I thought about doing this as well but ended up viewing it personally as a "lose-lose" for myself rather than a "win-win". I wonder if that says anything about my risk-aversion.
  - mrguyorama 2y ago
    It means you are not a degenerate gambler. You probably also do not enjoy slot machines, or the bullshit that passes for card games in a casino. I want to play blackjack, not "blackjack" where you change the allowed bets and rules specifically to increase the house edge thank you very much.
    - floobertoober 2y ago
      Do you feel the same way about insurance in general?
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
fhdsgbbcaA 2y ago
Betting markets can be good predictors but I think what poly market is reflective of is not people who are looking for the optimal bet; but wish casting of crypto bros.
tim333 2y ago
It does seem to be working a bit as a sentiment indicator at the moment on the Trump Kamala election but seems biased because most people speculating on crypto are male and pro Trump. In basic economic theory you'd expect it to reflect a realistic estimate of the candidates chances but seems off a little just now. I'm long Kamala for what it's worth.
- tim333 2y ago
  Ah well, that didn't quite work out.

Polymarket is a new thing and it's throwing a lot of political pundits off their tracks because they treat it as political sentiment indicator, but it's all just gambling and manipulation.

chatmasta 2y ago

That’s the beauty of it. If you’re sure it’s wrong, you can profit off the gambling and manipulation.

Retr0id 2y ago
You can also profit off regular gambling and manipulation by buying stocks in gambling companies.
- bbor 2y ago
  Or really day trading in its entirety, IMHO. Imagine I had a casino game that all the best experts insist you have slim-to-no chance of beating the odds on, and that countless hordes of people just like you have lost their life savings on. Is it not gambling just because you have a system for picking a spot on the roulette wheel?
  - freefaler 2y ago
    Not really. The house takes 2% of the winnings (current polymarket fee structure). You're betting against other people, not against the house. If you are correct and especially if you know something that other people don't know you may take a very large percentage of the pool. So this is a more "merit" based system when critical thinking and correct prediction pay well.
- freefaler 2y ago
  Every prediction market has a resolution date. Stock market does not. In that sense the prediction market "predicts" an external event on a particular date and this is the big difference. Stocks may rise of fall based on the perception of the market. A bet would get resolved based not on the perception of the people, but on the event itself. (or on the UMA dispute vote, but mostly the system is working). That's why it doesn't matter how skewed/wrong a particular bet is (like Trump chances). If your think that the market is wrong, you get a better return on your money. And the resolution date + smart contract creates the possibility to earn if you are correct.
  - Retr0id 2y ago
    However, many stocks pay dividends at fixed intervals, based on objective metrics.
soneca 2y ago
Even if I know that is bullshit if someone claims to know the next number of a roulette and backs it up going all-in on black, it is not rational for me to bet on red.
- floobertoober 2y ago
  But if their having placed a bet makes your opposing bet cheaper, then it can! : )
- boilerupnc 2y ago
  At least one person has figured out how to beat roulette [0]. I’d follow his lead [0] https://archive.ph/Hc0Kh https://archive.ph/Hc0Kh
tshaddox 2y ago
The thing about gambling is that even if you understand the nature of gambling it doesn't mean you can reliably win money from gambling.
- bbor 2y ago
  Sure you can, especially if you’re rich! You just can’t reliably know when you can reliably win money ;) Epistemology strikes yet again
- freefaler 2y ago
  It's not a random chance gambling like a casino. It's more like active stock trading. Many traders (especially retail) lose money, but many make money. Polymarket is good when you understand the situation better than the people you're betting against. And the bet you're making can be on what you know. My first 100 USDC I've made was when the CrowdStrike news hit. I saw a bet that it was a "hack". As a programmer I knew it wasn't a hack based on the technical information I read. The bet was 70 not a hack/30 hack. I bet that is was not a hack and got 30% return for 2 days. Many people "bet" everyday. Every resource allocation decision is a bet. Polymarket is the same. Don't bet on "what will Trump say" or "the price of BTC in a week", but there a plenty of bets where you can make a reasonable prediction and get consistent returns.
  - krainboltgreene 2y ago
    > It's more like active stock trading. That is also random chance gambling.
    - freefaler 2y ago
      If it was, than people like Buffet, Stan Druckenmiller or Jim Simmons wouldn't exist. They are trading and they are making bets. Simmons makes milions of them everyday :), Buffet makes 1 per month. But they are active stock traders not a passive index investors.
      - 2y ago
iwontberude 2y ago
Except the people who know best are in the US and can't file 1099 on their winnings without implicitly admitting to a crime. Any American dumb enough to invest in Polymarket deserves to lose their money.
- yespocolypse 2y ago
  Any fed dumb enough to waste tax dollars chasing down the client side of the usual small stakes token 2-4 figure betting this involves rather than polymarket (et al) directly deserves to be fired, since it almost certainly is a net negative to the taxpayer and will do nothing to stop this kind of betting.
  - iwontberude 2y ago
    This country is rule by law, the laws regularly broken will be weaponized for political purposes.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> If you’re sure it’s wrong, you can profit off the gambling and manipulation Not if you’re American and want to respect the law!
BobaFloutist 2y ago
Right, but I'm also ethically opposed to the industry

TrackerFF 2y ago

Statistically speaking, I'd expect some hardcore sample bias, if using Polymarket to model the US population.

ErikAugust 2y ago
The biggest bettor is French, apparently: https://www.reuters.com/world/polymarket-says-mystery-trump-bettor-is-french-national-2024-10-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/polymarket-says-mystery-trump-...
- tim333 2y ago
  That guy bet $46m. Current betting volume is $3.3bn.

ajross 2y ago

So, that's true. But the point of the linked article is that Polymarket is clearly marketing to US consumers, a market it isn't licensed to serve and that it claims it tries to prevent (via an IP block, anyway). It's not illegal to be running a gambling and manipulation site per se. PredictIt and Kalshi do it above board. Polymarket appears to be engaging in at least a little bit of fraud here.

floobertoober 2y ago

For me personally, I placed a bet for my non-favored candidate so that either my person wins, or I win some amount of money. I'm using it kind of like insurance or hedging. Unfortunately if enough people use it this way, it probably no longer works as a predictor

ttamslam 2y ago
I thought about doing this as well but ended up viewing it personally as a "lose-lose" for myself rather than a "win-win". I wonder if that says anything about my risk-aversion.
- mrguyorama 2y ago
  It means you are not a degenerate gambler. You probably also do not enjoy slot machines, or the bullshit that passes for card games in a casino. I want to play blackjack, not "blackjack" where you change the allowed bets and rules specifically to increase the house edge thank you very much.
  - floobertoober 2y ago
    Do you feel the same way about insurance in general?
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

fhdsgbbcaA 2y ago

Betting markets can be good predictors but I think what poly market is reflective of is not people who are looking for the optimal bet; but wish casting of crypto bros.

tim333 2y ago

It does seem to be working a bit as a sentiment indicator at the moment on the Trump Kamala election but seems biased because most people speculating on crypto are male and pro Trump. In basic economic theory you'd expect it to reflect a realistic estimate of the candidates chances but seems off a little just now. I'm long Kamala for what it's worth.

tim333 2y ago
Ah well, that didn't quite work out.