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It will be interesting to see how we feel about the prediction markets after today. They are making a clear bet on the winner, and if they are wrong, it will b

It will be interesting to see how we feel about the prediction markets after today. They are making a clear bet on the winner, and if they are wrong, it will be a pretty big hit on their value.

ks2048 2y ago
I agree, although I read somewhere prediction markets in 2016 had Clinton by a wide margin. I don’t have a reference for that and obviously they would have been tiny markets by comparison to today.
asow92 2y ago
It's just statistics. Even if it's 60/40 you could be wrong 4 out of 10 times.
- rootusrootus 2y ago
  This is true, but go ask Nate Silver how that went for him in 2016. The general public has only superficial familiarity with even basic statistics. 60/40 is perceived by many as a near guarantee. More than enough to make them cry 'stolen election!' if the election does not go the way they want.
- chatmasta 2y ago
  Market dynamics are subtly different than statistics of traditional polls, since you need to account for fees and slippage and irrationality. You’d also need to compare this to a poll asking “who do you think will win the election?” which is a different question from “who are you voting for?”
  - n2d4 2y ago
    "Subtly different"? It's not even remotely the same thing, all they have in common is that the unit is %. The betting probability is the (expected) chance that a certain candidate wins, while polls measure the % of population that votes for a candidate. A polling lead of 20% would seal the election.
ManuelKiessling 2y ago
PredictIt is at 53:52 currently, wouldn’t call this clear.
- greenavocado 2y ago
  That's to mobilize people to vote who would otherwise stay home if the gap was bigger
- rootusrootus 2y ago
  That's interesting, I have only looked recently at polymarket, and it's at 62/38 right now. Robinhood is at 59/43. I wonder why PredictIt is so much closer.
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  Does predictit allow cash bets? seems like an arbitrage opportunity for a win-win bet.
QuadmasterXLII 2y ago
If you have a coin and know for a fact that it is either a fair coin or a 60 40 coin, it would take ~100 flips to be 80% sure which kind of coin it is. We will never know whether polymarket’s odds were more accurate than e. g. Nate Silver’s on predicting a single event
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
rightbyte 2y ago
Does it work like that? Wont the house set the odds such that it always win? I.e. the betters set the odds but the initial seed. The house know their book, we don't. EDIT: Oh. Visiting the site, it seems like it is not gambling? Or have I misunderstood it.
- rootusrootus 2y ago
  It's definitely gambling (though maybe not legally, in some cases; RH is selling event contracts, and maybe derivatives are not legally gambling, but effectively they sure seem like it...). The payout is $1 if it turns out correct, $0 if not.
deleted 2y ago
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WillPostForFood 2y ago
They had a huge miss in 2016 and it didn't seem to have a significant long term effect.
throwaway657656 2y ago
There is already plenty of historical data that would have demonstrated the quality of the predictions. This specific bet, however, could be the worst way to judge the prediction markets given that the key demographics of the gamblers, young risk taking males, are the same that strongly favor the GOP candidate. In that regard, your bet alone demonstrates loyalty which feels like a soft win. Also, when you win if you win, and if you lose, you were still right because you can cite the heavily skewed prediction market as proof the election was stolen.
- baxtr 2y ago
  But how is a prediction market any good if you need to correct for the demographics of the gamblers for each bet?
  - Dylan16807 2y ago
    It being relevant to a couple bets doesn't mean you need to correct "each bet".
  - s1artibartfast 2y ago
    That depends on what you are using it for, doesn't it? Like anything, you cant turn your brain off and take it as gospel.

It will be interesting to see how we feel about the prediction markets after today. They are making a clear bet on the winner, and if they are wrong, it will be a pretty big hit on their value.

ks2048 2y ago

I agree, although I read somewhere prediction markets in 2016 had Clinton by a wide margin. I don’t have a reference for that and obviously they would have been tiny markets by comparison to today.

asow92 2y ago

It's just statistics. Even if it's 60/40 you could be wrong 4 out of 10 times.

rootusrootus 2y ago
This is true, but go ask Nate Silver how that went for him in 2016. The general public has only superficial familiarity with even basic statistics. 60/40 is perceived by many as a near guarantee. More than enough to make them cry 'stolen election!' if the election does not go the way they want.
chatmasta 2y ago
Market dynamics are subtly different than statistics of traditional polls, since you need to account for fees and slippage and irrationality. You’d also need to compare this to a poll asking “who do you think will win the election?” which is a different question from “who are you voting for?”
- n2d4 2y ago
  "Subtly different"? It's not even remotely the same thing, all they have in common is that the unit is %. The betting probability is the (expected) chance that a certain candidate wins, while polls measure the % of population that votes for a candidate. A polling lead of 20% would seal the election.

ManuelKiessling 2y ago

PredictIt is at 53:52 currently, wouldn’t call this clear.

greenavocado 2y ago
That's to mobilize people to vote who would otherwise stay home if the gap was bigger
rootusrootus 2y ago
That's interesting, I have only looked recently at polymarket, and it's at 62/38 right now. Robinhood is at 59/43. I wonder why PredictIt is so much closer.
s1artibartfast 2y ago
Does predictit allow cash bets? seems like an arbitrage opportunity for a win-win bet.

QuadmasterXLII 2y ago

If you have a coin and know for a fact that it is either a fair coin or a 60 40 coin, it would take ~100 flips to be 80% sure which kind of coin it is. We will never know whether polymarket’s odds were more accurate than e. g. Nate Silver’s on predicting a single event

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

rightbyte 2y ago

Does it work like that? Wont the house set the odds such that it always win? I.e. the betters set the odds but the initial seed. The house know their book, we don't. EDIT: Oh. Visiting the site, it seems like it is not gambling? Or have I misunderstood it.

rootusrootus 2y ago
It's definitely gambling (though maybe not legally, in some cases; RH is selling event contracts, and maybe derivatives are not legally gambling, but effectively they sure seem like it...). The payout is $1 if it turns out correct, $0 if not.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

WillPostForFood 2y ago

They had a huge miss in 2016 and it didn't seem to have a significant long term effect.

throwaway657656 2y ago

There is already plenty of historical data that would have demonstrated the quality of the predictions. This specific bet, however, could be the worst way to judge the prediction markets given that the key demographics of the gamblers, young risk taking males, are the same that strongly favor the GOP candidate. In that regard, your bet alone demonstrates loyalty which feels like a soft win. Also, when you win if you win, and if you lose, you were still right because you can cite the heavily skewed prediction market as proof the election was stolen.

baxtr 2y ago
But how is a prediction market any good if you need to correct for the demographics of the gamblers for each bet?
- Dylan16807 2y ago
  It being relevant to a couple bets doesn't mean you need to correct "each bet".
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  That depends on what you are using it for, doesn't it? Like anything, you cant turn your brain off and take it as gospel.