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In the US, power growth rate is about 1% per annum or about 40GW. AI&crypto is doubling that number to about 2% per annum. The US is installing solar at a ra

In the US, power growth rate is about 1% per annum or about 40GW. AI&crypto is doubling that number to about 2% per annum. The US is installing solar at a rate of about 40GW per year so we need to 2X it, not 10X it. China is installing it at a rate of about 10GW per month, so capacity is certainly not the constraint.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> US is installing solar at a rate of about 40GW per year so we need to 2X it, not 10X it 2x means no carbon reduction. 3x means we can close coal by 2040 and decarbonise by 2082 [1]. And “panels are easy.” (We’re not 2 or even 3x’ing deployment inside a decade [2].) Now look at batteries. Assume we ban EVs and send 100% of production to utilities. 10x. Solar + wind with batteries only means we burn natural gas. It’s based on the same faulty logic as the failed nuclear-only strategies of yesteryear. It’s what we’re doing right now, which is why we’re installing about 10 GWh a year of natural gas over the 40% it already commands and why trillions are being invested in new natural gas infrastructure [3]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_Un... [2] https://seia.org/research-resources/us-solar-market-insight/ https://seia.org/research-resources/us-solar-market-insight/ [3] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-...
- marcosdumay 2y ago
  > Solar + wind with batteries only means we burn natural gas. For a while. And much less gas than without the renewables. A lot of that load increase you are observing is about the change from fossil-fuel cars into electric ones. That one will stop eventually, and you don't want to delay it anyway.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > much less gas than without the renewables Yes? The point is that we are currently committing ourselves to a fossil fuel energy system through at least the 2080s by not building all the non-emmitting power we can. Those investments not only put down emitting capital equipment, they capitalize a bloc of producers who will do what they must to protect their investment. > that load increase you are observing is about the change from fossil-fuel cars into electric ones. That one will stop eventually, and you don't want to delay it anyway No, it's AI. EVs are rolling out much more slowly.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> US is installing solar at a rate of about 40GW per year so we need to 2X it, not 10X it 2x means no carbon reduction. 3x means we can close coal by 2040 and decarbonise by 2082 [1]. And “panels are easy.” (We’re not 2 or even 3x’ing deployment inside a decade [2].) Now look at batteries. Assume we ban EVs and send 100% of production to utilities. 10x. Solar + wind with batteries only means we burn natural gas. It’s based on the same faulty logic as the failed nuclear-only strategies of yesteryear. It’s what we’re doing right now, which is why we’re installing about 10 GWh a year of natural gas over the 40% it already commands and why trillions are being invested in new natural gas infrastructure [3]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_Un... [2] https://seia.org/research-resources/us-solar-market-insight/ https://seia.org/research-resources/us-solar-market-insight/ [3] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-...

marcosdumay 2y ago
> Solar + wind with batteries only means we burn natural gas. For a while. And much less gas than without the renewables. A lot of that load increase you are observing is about the change from fossil-fuel cars into electric ones. That one will stop eventually, and you don't want to delay it anyway.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > much less gas than without the renewables Yes? The point is that we are currently committing ourselves to a fossil fuel energy system through at least the 2080s by not building all the non-emmitting power we can. Those investments not only put down emitting capital equipment, they capitalize a bloc of producers who will do what they must to protect their investment. > that load increase you are observing is about the change from fossil-fuel cars into electric ones. That one will stop eventually, and you don't want to delay it anyway No, it's AI. EVs are rolling out much more slowly.