2 ms·

The singularity ain't real, buddy.

lupusreal 2y ago
What is singularity anyway? I thought it was just some hypothetical point in time where making accurate predictions about the future becomes infeasible.
- michaelt 2y ago
  The singularity is a sci-fi end-of-days story. It speculates that at some point we'll invent an AI that's about as smart as a human, and smart enough to design a better version of itself. Then a week later it'll come up with a version of itself that's twice as smart. A week later that version will come up with a version that's twice as smart again, making it 4x as smart as a human. A week after that, it'll come up with a version that's twice as smart again, 8x as smart as a human. And so on. A year later it'll be a trillion times smarter than a human. The AI will then either solve all our problems, invent fusion power and faster-than-light travel, and usher in a Star Trek style post-scarcity world of infinite resources and luxury, or it'll take over and create a Terminator style oppressive dystopia where the few surviving humans survive on rats we roast over a barrel in our underground bunker.
  - dr_dshiv 2y ago
    At geological or biological timescales, that’s what the emergence of language did. AI can all be viewed as part of the accelerating returns of language…
    - guappa 2y ago
      You mean slowing it down, by producing large amounts of meaningless text?
    - netdevnet 2y ago
      > At geological or biological timescales, that’s what the emergence of language did Elaborate on this idea please. Are you saying that human languages are self-replicating abstract entities?
- fragmede 2y ago
  There's a dystopian definition in the other comment but usually, when people say they're looking forwards to the singularity, they're referring to a version of the future where robots and computers are able to do most of not all jobs, so humans no longer have to work, and can spend all their time doing whatever, usually phrased as painting, singing, dancing, and the other leisure-type activities. Bettering themselves and helping humanity. The utopian, post-scarcity Federation from Star Trek, if you've seen it.
  - adastra22 2y ago
    But without offering an objective model for how that could happen, it’s just wish-fulfillment fantasy. The Singularity is the rapture of the nerds, and is about as likely to happen as the second coming of Jesus.
    - fragmede 2y ago
      That was not a comment on the plausibility of it. Offering up a definition is still useful so people actually have conversation instead of just talking past each other.
- kfarr 2y ago
  There are many competing definitions which is why these comment threads devolve.
soulofmischief 2y ago
The technological singularity was first described by John von Neumann. Are you suggesting you understand something about technology that one of the most intelligent technologists to ever walk the earth didn't?
- staticman2 2y ago
  Does it matter how smart someone is when they make things up? We see this in AI talk all the time "Dude is really good at coding and math, he's smart. We should totally listen to him when he makes things up like a 12 year old who just watched Terminator."
  - soulofmischief 2y ago
    Great question, and what you're referring to is an appeal to authority, which is a common logical fallacy. It absolutely warrants further examination. In the case of von Neumann, I mention him because he is the one who introduced the concept to the public. It is something he spent a great deal of time thinking about. He spent his life working around technology and had some incredible insights. Many consider him the smartest person to ever live, though in my opinion there are plenty contenders. He made key contributions to the development of computers, nuclear tech, quantum mechanics, mathematics and more. [0] So I believe all of this truly does lead credence to the idea, at least enough to warrant sufficient research before dismissal. It's not his authority I appeal to, it's his experience. He didn't obsess over this idea for no reason, and his well-documented achievements aren't comparable to random flash-in-the-pan tech executives. [0] https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-von-Neumann https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-von-Neumann
    - adastra22 2y ago
      It’s still an appeal to authority, not an analysis of the idea itself.
      - soulofmischief 2y ago

What is singularity anyway? I thought it was just some hypothetical point in time where making accurate predictions about the future becomes infeasible.

michaelt 2y ago
The singularity is a sci-fi end-of-days story. It speculates that at some point we'll invent an AI that's about as smart as a human, and smart enough to design a better version of itself. Then a week later it'll come up with a version of itself that's twice as smart. A week later that version will come up with a version that's twice as smart again, making it 4x as smart as a human. A week after that, it'll come up with a version that's twice as smart again, 8x as smart as a human. And so on. A year later it'll be a trillion times smarter than a human. The AI will then either solve all our problems, invent fusion power and faster-than-light travel, and usher in a Star Trek style post-scarcity world of infinite resources and luxury, or it'll take over and create a Terminator style oppressive dystopia where the few surviving humans survive on rats we roast over a barrel in our underground bunker.
- dr_dshiv 2y ago
  At geological or biological timescales, that’s what the emergence of language did. AI can all be viewed as part of the accelerating returns of language…
  - guappa 2y ago
    You mean slowing it down, by producing large amounts of meaningless text?
  - netdevnet 2y ago
    > At geological or biological timescales, that’s what the emergence of language did Elaborate on this idea please. Are you saying that human languages are self-replicating abstract entities?
fragmede 2y ago
There's a dystopian definition in the other comment but usually, when people say they're looking forwards to the singularity, they're referring to a version of the future where robots and computers are able to do most of not all jobs, so humans no longer have to work, and can spend all their time doing whatever, usually phrased as painting, singing, dancing, and the other leisure-type activities. Bettering themselves and helping humanity. The utopian, post-scarcity Federation from Star Trek, if you've seen it.
- adastra22 2y ago
  But without offering an objective model for how that could happen, it’s just wish-fulfillment fantasy. The Singularity is the rapture of the nerds, and is about as likely to happen as the second coming of Jesus.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    That was not a comment on the plausibility of it. Offering up a definition is still useful so people actually have conversation instead of just talking past each other.
kfarr 2y ago
There are many competing definitions which is why these comment threads devolve.

soulofmischief 2y ago

The technological singularity was first described by John von Neumann. Are you suggesting you understand something about technology that one of the most intelligent technologists to ever walk the earth didn't?

staticman2 2y ago
Does it matter how smart someone is when they make things up? We see this in AI talk all the time "Dude is really good at coding and math, he's smart. We should totally listen to him when he makes things up like a 12 year old who just watched Terminator."
- soulofmischief 2y ago
  Great question, and what you're referring to is an appeal to authority, which is a common logical fallacy. It absolutely warrants further examination. In the case of von Neumann, I mention him because he is the one who introduced the concept to the public. It is something he spent a great deal of time thinking about. He spent his life working around technology and had some incredible insights. Many consider him the smartest person to ever live, though in my opinion there are plenty contenders. He made key contributions to the development of computers, nuclear tech, quantum mechanics, mathematics and more. [0] So I believe all of this truly does lead credence to the idea, at least enough to warrant sufficient research before dismissal. It's not his authority I appeal to, it's his experience. He didn't obsess over this idea for no reason, and his well-documented achievements aren't comparable to random flash-in-the-pan tech executives. [0] https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-von-Neumann https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-von-Neumann
  - adastra22 2y ago
    It’s still an appeal to authority, not an analysis of the idea itself.
    - soulofmischief 2y ago