4 ms·

We would import a lot more of our food from countries with cheaper wages, unless the government said, no, you have to pay Americans to farm your food - then we'

We would import a lot more of our food from countries with cheaper wages, unless the government said, no, you have to pay Americans to farm your food - then we'd be spending ~10% of GDP on food instead of ~5%, and still be getting lower quality food (since you can't grow many things in the US, or if you can it's ridiculously cost prohibitive and still will be low quality). Additionally, we'd be pinching the labor market further in whatever areas those people left to work on farms instead. It's not like we have 18% unemployment.

giantrobot 2y ago
> (since you can't grow many things in the US, or if you can it's ridiculously cost prohibitive and still will be low quality) That's certainly a statement. It's ludicrous but it technically counts as a statement.
dangus 2y ago
> since you can't grow many things in the US That is a rather strange claim. The US is represented all up and down this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_producing_countries_of_agricultural_commodities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_producing_coun...
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  Sure, if you ignore the context of the claim, it doesn't make sense. The context is a US without cheap farm labor. Most of that list depends on cheap labor. Corn & wheat depend on massive machines run by skilled labor, but most of the rest depend on cheap labor.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    US Ag needs to figure out how to go from low productivity to high productivity regardless. The world is rapidly aging, the total fertility rate is declining globally (Mexico's fertility rate is below that of the US', for example, and even they are running out of farm hands), and it is unlikely we outsource production of the necessary produce to India and Africa (the youthful, developing parts of the world that remain). Certainly, farmers will complain they no longer get a cheap labor discount, this is a common refrain in any industry where their labor costs are no longer discounted due to structural demographics. The desire to pay humans the least possible for their labor is universal. Automate or die, those are your choices. If there is a need for subsidies, cost of capital assistance, whatever, we can do that; capital is a fiction, labor is real. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor/ https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/trends-driving-automation-on-the-farm https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/23/mexico-farmworkers-us-economy/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/23/mexico-farmw... | https://archive.today/8rmWI https://archive.today/8rmWI
    - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
      As long as the US stays very rich and <4% of total global population, we will not run out of cheap foreign labor unless the rest of the world becomes very rich or die off en masse.
      - toomuchtodo 2y ago
        I don't believe we can rely on the idea of wealth and a never ending supply of cheap foreign lump of labor from anywhere in the world (it has not gone well for Europe, for example, and Sweden is paying migrants ~$34k to return to their country of origin). A majority of the US population supports deporting the existing undocumented immigrants in country, and limiting further immigration (do they understand this would stoke domestic service inflation? probably not). The wealth is immaterial if the electorate ties your hands politically. Demographic systems and political populism are running head long into capitalism. This story is a symptom of that. https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/trump-biden-americans-illegal-immigration-poll https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/trump-biden-americans-illeg... https://news.gallup.com/poll/647123/sharply-americans-curb-immigration.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/647123/sharply-americans-curb-i... (I am once again asking to think in systems)
        onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
        This is not "running out of cheap labor". This is tying your hands behind your back and not accepting it. There's a difference.
        toomuchtodo 2y ago
        The difference is the discussion, the outcome is what matters (imho). If something is technically possible, but impossible to achieve (for whatever reason), it is not truly possible. There is, to my knowledge, no country that has solved its labor supply challenges with mass immigration in a sustainable manner. I am happy to be proven wrong if my understanding and model is inaccurate.
  - Scoundreller 2y ago
    > Corn & wheat depend on massive machines run by skilled labor, but most of the rest depend on cheap labor. I’ma say most nutrition is highly-mechanized (even if it may not make up the entire grocery bill if you buy lots of produce). Highly mechanized would also include carrots, potatoes, onions, beans/pulses, oats, the flavourless tomatoes that make up 98% of the market, peanuts, lettuce & spinach. Plenty of fruits I’d say are semi-mechanized: apples, pears and most citrus can use a machine that violently shakes the tree onto a net to catch the falling fruit.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      You're totally right about the root veg (and I assume peanuts counts as a root veg in this context). I meant to say cereal instead of wheat which would have caught oats and barley and some specialty cereals. Beans/pulses generally use the same machinery as cereals. Definitely didn't mean to include tomatoes, lettuce & spinach, though. I know those are partially mechanized, but don't they still include a large unskilled labor component? Or am I out of date?
  - dangus 2y ago
    Farming mostly depends on having the right weather, growing conditions, and soil, which the US has in abundance.

giantrobot 2y ago

> (since you can't grow many things in the US, or if you can it's ridiculously cost prohibitive and still will be low quality) That's certainly a statement. It's ludicrous but it technically counts as a statement.

dangus 2y ago

> since you can't grow many things in the US That is a rather strange claim. The US is represented all up and down this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_producing_countries_of_agricultural_commodities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_producing_coun...

bryanlarsen 2y ago
Sure, if you ignore the context of the claim, it doesn't make sense. The context is a US without cheap farm labor. Most of that list depends on cheap labor. Corn & wheat depend on massive machines run by skilled labor, but most of the rest depend on cheap labor.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  US Ag needs to figure out how to go from low productivity to high productivity regardless. The world is rapidly aging, the total fertility rate is declining globally (Mexico's fertility rate is below that of the US', for example, and even they are running out of farm hands), and it is unlikely we outsource production of the necessary produce to India and Africa (the youthful, developing parts of the world that remain). Certainly, farmers will complain they no longer get a cheap labor discount, this is a common refrain in any industry where their labor costs are no longer discounted due to structural demographics. The desire to pay humans the least possible for their labor is universal. Automate or die, those are your choices. If there is a need for subsidies, cost of capital assistance, whatever, we can do that; capital is a fiction, labor is real. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor/ https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/trends-driving-automation-on-the-farm https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/23/mexico-farmworkers-us-economy/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/23/mexico-farmw... | https://archive.today/8rmWI https://archive.today/8rmWI
  - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
    As long as the US stays very rich and <4% of total global population, we will not run out of cheap foreign labor unless the rest of the world becomes very rich or die off en masse.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      I don't believe we can rely on the idea of wealth and a never ending supply of cheap foreign lump of labor from anywhere in the world (it has not gone well for Europe, for example, and Sweden is paying migrants ~$34k to return to their country of origin). A majority of the US population supports deporting the existing undocumented immigrants in country, and limiting further immigration (do they understand this would stoke domestic service inflation? probably not). The wealth is immaterial if the electorate ties your hands politically. Demographic systems and political populism are running head long into capitalism. This story is a symptom of that. https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/trump-biden-americans-illegal-immigration-poll https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/trump-biden-americans-illeg... https://news.gallup.com/poll/647123/sharply-americans-curb-immigration.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/647123/sharply-americans-curb-i... (I am once again asking to think in systems)
      - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
        This is not "running out of cheap labor". This is tying your hands behind your back and not accepting it. There's a difference.
        toomuchtodo 2y ago
        The difference is the discussion, the outcome is what matters (imho). If something is technically possible, but impossible to achieve (for whatever reason), it is not truly possible. There is, to my knowledge, no country that has solved its labor supply challenges with mass immigration in a sustainable manner. I am happy to be proven wrong if my understanding and model is inaccurate.
- Scoundreller 2y ago
  > Corn & wheat depend on massive machines run by skilled labor, but most of the rest depend on cheap labor. I’ma say most nutrition is highly-mechanized (even if it may not make up the entire grocery bill if you buy lots of produce). Highly mechanized would also include carrots, potatoes, onions, beans/pulses, oats, the flavourless tomatoes that make up 98% of the market, peanuts, lettuce & spinach. Plenty of fruits I’d say are semi-mechanized: apples, pears and most citrus can use a machine that violently shakes the tree onto a net to catch the falling fruit.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    You're totally right about the root veg (and I assume peanuts counts as a root veg in this context). I meant to say cereal instead of wheat which would have caught oats and barley and some specialty cereals. Beans/pulses generally use the same machinery as cereals. Definitely didn't mean to include tomatoes, lettuce & spinach, though. I know those are partially mechanized, but don't they still include a large unskilled labor component? Or am I out of date?
- dangus 2y ago
  Farming mostly depends on having the right weather, growing conditions, and soil, which the US has in abundance.