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> I predict most AI developers will be out of a job soon. Once AI developers will be out of a job everyone will be out of every job. If not then the AI develop

> I predict most AI developers will be out of a job soon. Once AI developers will be out of a job everyone will be out of every job. If not then the AI developers still have a job to work on those jobs which hasn't been automated yet. > Just about anyone working in AI right now is building a castle in someone else's kingdom. This doesn't ring true to me. When do you feel we should circle back to this prediction? Ten years? Fifteen? Can you formulate your thesis in a form we can verify in the future? (long bets style perhaps)

amelius 2y ago
> Once AI developers will be out of a job everyone will be out of every job. If not then the AI developers still have a job to work on those jobs which hasn't been automated yet. Maybe so, but what if AI developments accelerate and since the big companies have all the data and computational power they put you out of business faster than you can see the next thing the market wants?
- krisoft 2y ago
  You mean google who seems to be institutionally incapable to pick up anything less than a kings ransom develops a taste for it? :) I will continue worrying more about randomly slipping in the shower and breaking my neck. It feels like a more probable scenairo.
jvanderbot 2y ago
> Once AI developers will be out of a job everyone will be out of every job. If not then the AI developers still have a job to work on those jobs which hasn't been automated yet. Same for software devs: We'll all be working on AI that's working on our problems, but we'll also work on our problems to generate better training data, build out the rest of the automation and verify the AI's solutions, so really AI will be doing all the work and so will we.
amelius 2y ago
I thought about it some more. > Once AI developers will be out of a job everyone will be out of every job. If not then the AI developers still have a job to work on those jobs which hasn't been automated yet. This may not be true if data is the bottleneck. AI developers may be out of a job long before the data collection has been finished to train the models.
- krisoft 2y ago
  > AI developers may be out of a job long before the data collection has been finished to train the models. What do you think AI developers are doing?

amelius 2y ago

> Once AI developers will be out of a job everyone will be out of every job. If not then the AI developers still have a job to work on those jobs which hasn't been automated yet. Maybe so, but what if AI developments accelerate and since the big companies have all the data and computational power they put you out of business faster than you can see the next thing the market wants?

krisoft 2y ago
You mean google who seems to be institutionally incapable to pick up anything less than a kings ransom develops a taste for it? :) I will continue worrying more about randomly slipping in the shower and breaking my neck. It feels like a more probable scenairo.

jvanderbot 2y ago

> Once AI developers will be out of a job everyone will be out of every job. If not then the AI developers still have a job to work on those jobs which hasn't been automated yet. Same for software devs: We'll all be working on AI that's working on our problems, but we'll also work on our problems to generate better training data, build out the rest of the automation and verify the AI's solutions, so really AI will be doing all the work and so will we.

amelius 2y ago

I thought about it some more. > Once AI developers will be out of a job everyone will be out of every job. If not then the AI developers still have a job to work on those jobs which hasn't been automated yet. This may not be true if data is the bottleneck. AI developers may be out of a job long before the data collection has been finished to train the models.

krisoft 2y ago
> AI developers may be out of a job long before the data collection has been finished to train the models. What do you think AI developers are doing?