4 ms·

Dynamic Models of Gentrification

43 points by Anon84 2y ago

ihaveajob 2y ago
I wish the term 'displacement' would be more commonly used, because it encapsulates the negative aspects of gentrification. On the other hand, gentrification has objectively positive aspects (improvements in safety, amenities, livability of a neighborhood). But it's too late now.
- appreciatorBus 2y ago
  It's long become a meaningless term in housing discourse. More or less boils down to "the vibes are off" When millionaires who live in houses started describing non-millionaires being allowed to live in apartments nearby as "gentrification", you know it's time for a new word.
  - zjp 2y ago
    god so fucking true. you have to understand in SF housing discourse that 'bringing in undesirable elements' means 'letting people that "only" make 100k live here'
- capitantrueno 2y ago
  I have never read the word gentrification in a positive light, only as the "displacement" meaning.
daft_pink 2y ago
My personal experience in Chicago is that the government had public housing projects that generated high crime rates and drove people away that ran in a ring around the city center, but otherwise were in premium locations. Then large public housing projects went out of favor and they were largely torn down and removed from 2000-2015. As the crime rates in these neighborhoods declined, suddenly the reason why people wouldn’t live in these places was removed and the intrinsic value of property so close to the city center skyrocketed. It’s sort of like being the person who buys the really cheap used car that’s always in disrepair. The reason you got that vehicle so cheap, is because it’s dilapidated. If they had built the car to last, you wouldn’t have been able to afford it anyways. If you live in the cheapest neighborhood then it’s going to be a neighborhood that has problems. If they remove the problems then the value of the property is probably going to increase and suddenly you can’t afford it anymore.
- zehaeva 2y ago
  Your post has reminded me of Vimes’s Theory of Socio-economic Unfairness[0], but I can't figure out if you think that the way the system works is a good thing or more just "this is the way the world works" [0] https://terrypratchett.com/explore-discworld/sam-vimes-boots-theory-of-socio-economic-unfairness/ https://terrypratchett.com/explore-discworld/sam-vimes-boots...
- immibis 2y ago
  Mind you, if everyone lives in the cheap neighborhood then "problem people" are diluted to the point there isn't a neighborhood-wide problem meanwhile everyone gets to pay cheap rent.
  - taeric 2y ago
    I'm dubious of this idea. Examples of locations where this dynamic exists?
    - opwieurposiu 2y ago
      Singapore is the only place I heave heard of where rich and poor live in the same public housing buildings. Could have something to do with the extreme land scarcity. The super rich still live in private houses though.
      - sokoloff 2y ago
        Singapore also deals quite harshly with “problem people”.
        vipa123 2y ago
        How do you mean?
        michael1999 2y ago
        Caning spoiled ex-pat brats comes to mind. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_of_Michael_Fay https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_of_Michael_Fay
sega_sai 2y ago
That's interesting. I was hoping to see some comparison of their model with the data in the paper, but haven't found it (I looked at the figures). That's a bit disappointing...
vavooom 2y ago
"Within our modeling framework, we show that gentrification emerges only when high-income residents have some mobility, even if minimal, highlighting how their movement patterns catalyse the process. We treat relocation flows of agents in our city as time-varying edges in a temporal network, leveraging established tools from network science and human mobility research." So to summarize, when rich individuals wants to move, they do. Seems logical given they have the excess opportunity to do so with minimal risk / cost often associated with taking on whatever risks are associated with 'gentrifying'
- vavooom 2y ago
  Also: "as city population density increases, so does the propensity for gentrification" summarizes to people want to live near other people!
  - patrickmay 2y ago
    I suspect it's more to do with living close to work. Only a small percentage of people are able to move without that concern. There are a lot of us who definitely do not want to live near other people.
timssopomo 2y ago
Having lived in Brooklyn and Jersey City for a combined 12 years, starting when an office worker could still buy a literal house in Prospect Heights, I'm fully convinced that "gentrification" is a meaningless phrase and we need a completely different way of studying this issue that looks at the role of finance and government in displacing the poor. Wealthy individuals moved into "gentrifying" neighborhoods _after_ massive movements of capital, not before. In 2007, no professional was leaving the upper east side to move to Williamsburg or Prospect / Crown Heights. After Bloomberg rezoned the waterfront and rammed Atlantic Yards through, boatloads of money moved in. Vacant lots and abandoned buildings were torn down, new ones were built, "luxury" housing stock was created and _then_ rich people moved in. It's not all that different than VC money in startups - investors are sheep. Once it becomes clear a big fish has made an investment in an area, money floods in and drives up prices. To justify the increase in land values, investors have to raise rents. To raise rents, they need to improve the housing stock. This creates the inventory that the wealthy purchase.
- Maxamillion96 2y ago
  > It's not all that different than VC money in startups - investors are sheep. Once it becomes clear a big fish has made an investment in an area, money floods in and drives up prices. To justify the increase in land values, investors have to raise rents. To raise rents, they need to improve the housing stock. This creates the inventory that the wealthy purchase. Priming the pump is the economic term for this, old Timey pumps needed to have a bit of water poured into a mechanism to lubricate and and make it possible to pump water out.
- Tade0 2y ago
  I can attest to that, as I've seen something of this sort happen in two cities already. City councils talk of "revitalising" an area, but it's really about getting the most out of prime locations where the rich would had moved in already if it weren't for the dilapidated state of the mentioned. Interestingly the shift seems to affect businesses the most. The moment the first luxury condo is built/renovated you start seeing a change in the types of services offered. The other day I bought a particularly expensive bagel in a cafe that looked really out of place in the barely standing building where it was located. I'm sure almost none of the people that are long-term residents of this area go there.
rufus_foreman 2y ago
Tom Toles explained the process in 1998: https://laviedesidees.fr/local/cache-vignettes/L500xH449/1tom_toles_1998_06_11-f6916.gif?1675949743 https://laviedesidees.fr/local/cache-vignettes/L500xH449/1to....
- stonethrowaway 2y ago
  Unnecessarily racist and anti-white.
andrewmutz 2y ago
Why study an idealized simulation of gentrification when you could just study the real effects in the real world? Plenty of studies exist on this topic: https://www.nber.org/papers/w25809 https://www.nber.org/papers/w25809 https://www.philadelphiafed.org/community-development/housing-and-neighborhoods/the-effects-of-gentrification-on-the-well-being-and-opportunity-of-original-resident https://www.philadelphiafed.org/community-development/housin...
- tbrownaw 2y ago
  1) collect data from the real world (your links) 2) condense data into math (this article) 3) collect more data to verify predictions from that math (future work)
Animats 2y ago
A more fun article on this.[1] Gentrification is just making safe spaces for straight white people. [1] https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-role-artists-play-gentrification https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-role-artists-p...
michael1999 2y ago
I'm curious how their model responds to interventions like rent-control. Does it merely slow the process, or does it provide stabilizing damping to an unstable process?

43 points by Anon84 2y ago

I wish the term 'displacement' would be more commonly used, because it encapsulates the negative aspects of gentrification. On the other hand, gentrification has objectively positive aspects (improvements in safety, amenities, livability of a neighborhood). But it's too late now.

appreciatorBus 2y ago
It's long become a meaningless term in housing discourse. More or less boils down to "the vibes are off" When millionaires who live in houses started describing non-millionaires being allowed to live in apartments nearby as "gentrification", you know it's time for a new word.
- zjp 2y ago
  god so fucking true. you have to understand in SF housing discourse that 'bringing in undesirable elements' means 'letting people that "only" make 100k live here'
capitantrueno 2y ago
I have never read the word gentrification in a positive light, only as the "displacement" meaning.

daft_pink 2y ago

My personal experience in Chicago is that the government had public housing projects that generated high crime rates and drove people away that ran in a ring around the city center, but otherwise were in premium locations. Then large public housing projects went out of favor and they were largely torn down and removed from 2000-2015. As the crime rates in these neighborhoods declined, suddenly the reason why people wouldn’t live in these places was removed and the intrinsic value of property so close to the city center skyrocketed. It’s sort of like being the person who buys the really cheap used car that’s always in disrepair. The reason you got that vehicle so cheap, is because it’s dilapidated. If they had built the car to last, you wouldn’t have been able to afford it anyways. If you live in the cheapest neighborhood then it’s going to be a neighborhood that has problems. If they remove the problems then the value of the property is probably going to increase and suddenly you can’t afford it anymore.

zehaeva 2y ago
Your post has reminded me of Vimes’s Theory of Socio-economic Unfairness[0], but I can't figure out if you think that the way the system works is a good thing or more just "this is the way the world works" [0] https://terrypratchett.com/explore-discworld/sam-vimes-boots-theory-of-socio-economic-unfairness/ https://terrypratchett.com/explore-discworld/sam-vimes-boots...
immibis 2y ago
Mind you, if everyone lives in the cheap neighborhood then "problem people" are diluted to the point there isn't a neighborhood-wide problem meanwhile everyone gets to pay cheap rent.
- taeric 2y ago
  I'm dubious of this idea. Examples of locations where this dynamic exists?
  - opwieurposiu 2y ago
    Singapore is the only place I heave heard of where rich and poor live in the same public housing buildings. Could have something to do with the extreme land scarcity. The super rich still live in private houses though.
    - sokoloff 2y ago
      Singapore also deals quite harshly with “problem people”.
      - vipa123 2y ago
        How do you mean?
        michael1999 2y ago
        Caning spoiled ex-pat brats comes to mind. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_of_Michael_Fay https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_of_Michael_Fay

sega_sai 2y ago

That's interesting. I was hoping to see some comparison of their model with the data in the paper, but haven't found it (I looked at the figures). That's a bit disappointing...

vavooom 2y ago

"Within our modeling framework, we show that gentrification emerges only when high-income residents have some mobility, even if minimal, highlighting how their movement patterns catalyse the process. We treat relocation flows of agents in our city as time-varying edges in a temporal network, leveraging established tools from network science and human mobility research." So to summarize, when rich individuals wants to move, they do. Seems logical given they have the excess opportunity to do so with minimal risk / cost often associated with taking on whatever risks are associated with 'gentrifying'

vavooom 2y ago
Also: "as city population density increases, so does the propensity for gentrification" summarizes to people want to live near other people!
- patrickmay 2y ago
  I suspect it's more to do with living close to work. Only a small percentage of people are able to move without that concern. There are a lot of us who definitely do not want to live near other people.

timssopomo 2y ago

Having lived in Brooklyn and Jersey City for a combined 12 years, starting when an office worker could still buy a literal house in Prospect Heights, I'm fully convinced that "gentrification" is a meaningless phrase and we need a completely different way of studying this issue that looks at the role of finance and government in displacing the poor. Wealthy individuals moved into "gentrifying" neighborhoods _after_ massive movements of capital, not before. In 2007, no professional was leaving the upper east side to move to Williamsburg or Prospect / Crown Heights. After Bloomberg rezoned the waterfront and rammed Atlantic Yards through, boatloads of money moved in. Vacant lots and abandoned buildings were torn down, new ones were built, "luxury" housing stock was created and _then_ rich people moved in. It's not all that different than VC money in startups - investors are sheep. Once it becomes clear a big fish has made an investment in an area, money floods in and drives up prices. To justify the increase in land values, investors have to raise rents. To raise rents, they need to improve the housing stock. This creates the inventory that the wealthy purchase.

Maxamillion96 2y ago
> It's not all that different than VC money in startups - investors are sheep. Once it becomes clear a big fish has made an investment in an area, money floods in and drives up prices. To justify the increase in land values, investors have to raise rents. To raise rents, they need to improve the housing stock. This creates the inventory that the wealthy purchase. Priming the pump is the economic term for this, old Timey pumps needed to have a bit of water poured into a mechanism to lubricate and and make it possible to pump water out.
Tade0 2y ago
I can attest to that, as I've seen something of this sort happen in two cities already. City councils talk of "revitalising" an area, but it's really about getting the most out of prime locations where the rich would had moved in already if it weren't for the dilapidated state of the mentioned. Interestingly the shift seems to affect businesses the most. The moment the first luxury condo is built/renovated you start seeing a change in the types of services offered. The other day I bought a particularly expensive bagel in a cafe that looked really out of place in the barely standing building where it was located. I'm sure almost none of the people that are long-term residents of this area go there.

rufus_foreman 2y ago

Tom Toles explained the process in 1998: https://laviedesidees.fr/local/cache-vignettes/L500xH449/1tom_toles_1998_06_11-f6916.gif?1675949743 https://laviedesidees.fr/local/cache-vignettes/L500xH449/1to....

stonethrowaway 2y ago
Unnecessarily racist and anti-white.

andrewmutz 2y ago

Why study an idealized simulation of gentrification when you could just study the real effects in the real world? Plenty of studies exist on this topic: https://www.nber.org/papers/w25809 https://www.nber.org/papers/w25809 https://www.philadelphiafed.org/community-development/housing-and-neighborhoods/the-effects-of-gentrification-on-the-well-being-and-opportunity-of-original-resident https://www.philadelphiafed.org/community-development/housin...

tbrownaw 2y ago
1) collect data from the real world (your links) 2) condense data into math (this article) 3) collect more data to verify predictions from that math (future work)

Animats 2y ago

A more fun article on this.[1] Gentrification is just making safe spaces for straight white people. [1] https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-role-artists-play-gentrification https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-role-artists-p...

michael1999 2y ago

I'm curious how their model responds to interventions like rent-control. Does it merely slow the process, or does it provide stabilizing damping to an unstable process?