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Here's data on EV battery replacement rates: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-lo

Here's data on EV battery replacement rates: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter... Replacements do happen, but a lot of them are under warranty. Batteries are lasting longer than people expected, mainly due to really good management systems. These days the industry expects them to usually last the life of the car, though that allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original. Further tweaks to battery chemistry will probably improve things further. I might not buy an EV with 100K miles on it just yet, but I'd do 30K; a lot of the warranties go to 100K. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric-car-batteries-lasting-longer-than-predicted-delays-recycling-programs/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric...

steveBK123 2y ago
Agreed the replacement rates have been lower than anticipated. The only problems have been the predictable ones - bad designs like the early Nissan Leafs which had no thermal management. That said, the amount of datapoints here should increase by orders of magnitude over the next 2-3 years as the first million Model 3s roll out of their 8 year battery warranty period. I'm sure that once there is regular demand for battery replacements, the cost won't be much different than an engine rebuild. So even the pessimist case for EVs today is "well the TCO is lower for the first decade but then..." and I think we will be solving the "but then.." soon.
chii 2y ago
> allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original. which means when buying a car, you expect the range listed on the label to only be 70% effective.
- mirsadm 2y ago
  What do you mean? When I buy an ICE car I am not buying it with the expectation that the engine and transmission will die imminently. Why would you assume 70% capacity for an EV?

steveBK123 2y ago

Agreed the replacement rates have been lower than anticipated. The only problems have been the predictable ones - bad designs like the early Nissan Leafs which had no thermal management. That said, the amount of datapoints here should increase by orders of magnitude over the next 2-3 years as the first million Model 3s roll out of their 8 year battery warranty period. I'm sure that once there is regular demand for battery replacements, the cost won't be much different than an engine rebuild. So even the pessimist case for EVs today is "well the TCO is lower for the first decade but then..." and I think we will be solving the "but then.." soon.

chii 2y ago

> allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original. which means when buying a car, you expect the range listed on the label to only be 70% effective.

mirsadm 2y ago
What do you mean? When I buy an ICE car I am not buying it with the expectation that the engine and transmission will die imminently. Why would you assume 70% capacity for an EV?