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I doubt the value proposition of buying used EVs will ever reach parity with ICE unless the government forces some new battery warranty/replacement scheme onto

I doubt the value proposition of buying used EVs will ever reach parity with ICE unless the government forces some new battery warranty/replacement scheme onto EV manufacturers. I was talking to my credit union about this while applying for an auto loan and they said I'd have to be out of my mind to even consider a used EV. A Japanese ICE with 100k miles on it has a high chance of giving the second owner another 100k miles with no major expenses besides oil changes. With used EVs that battery pack is a ticking time bomb waiting to blow a hole in your wallet.

Lutger 2y ago
That is surprising, I've always thought the value proposition of used EV would be miles ahead of ICE vehicles, at least the more modern ones. A quick google also confirms that the average life expectancy in mileage of EV is already ahead of ICE cars. Generally, EV have the reputation of requiring much less maintenance.
- lordofgibbons 2y ago
  Ever have your phone or laptop not hold the charge it used to when you first bought it? The same thing happens to car batteries. This certainly doesn't help with people's range anxiety. I'm on the sideline waiting for the battery tech to improve a bit more before buying my next (electric) car. As an aside, I'm horrified by what new privacy invasive "features" these cars will include in all electric cars.
  - traceroute66 2y ago
    > I'm horrified by what new privacy invasive "features" these cars will include in all electric cars. My main horror with EVs, particularly Teslas is putting everything on a tablet display in the middle. Its like it was designed by some kid who's never driven a car. Its a safety issue, frankly. IMHO.
    - jcgrillo 2y ago
      In many U.S. states using a cell phone while driving is illegal under distracted driving rules. It should be the same for touch screens of all kinds.
  - necrobrit 2y ago
    Data is a bit light on the ground given we haven't had masses of EVs for all that long. But I wouldn't necessarily have this expectation based off of phones and laptops. EVs have really high-end battery management systems and cooling, which will have a huge impact on battery life. Heck even my phone is lasting better these days with just better software battery management in Android. My current oneplus 9 is going on three and a half years old and hasn't notably degraded in battery life. Whereas I'm pretty sure I remember all my previous phones having noticeable battery degradation after a year or so.
  - xxs 2y ago
    >Ever have your phone or laptop not hold the charge it used to when you first bought it? While true, the analogy is bad. The phones (and to some extent laptops) are notorious of the overcharge. The Li-Ion (cobalt) normally should be charged to 4.22V or so. Tool batteries usually do not go over 4.18V. Yet, the phones are happily pushing 4.35V - which provides longer life per charge initially, plus a proper planned obsolescence later. EV do proper battery management AND cooling.
    - formerly_proven 2y ago
      At the very extreme end, Apple Watch batteries have a 3.87 V nominal and 4.45 V end of charge voltage. Most lipoly pouch cells would turn into a balloon trying to do that once.
- traceroute66 2y ago
  > Generally, EV have the reputation of requiring much less maintenance. I'm sure you could generate a maintenance figure for EV that was lower than ICE if you wanted to. But I doubt that figure would be significant, maybe 10-15% if you're lucky. Why ? Well, let's face it, an EV is still a car. So you still have 99% of the same old things ... tyres, brakes, shock-absorbers, windscreen, windscreen wiper blades, washer fluid, AC gas etc. etc. etc. And then, of course, if there are problems with your EV battery, or its time for an EV battery replacement, then that 10-15% saving goes out the window. :)
  - chrisco255 2y ago
    > an EV is still a car. So you still have the same old things ... No, an ICE has a very complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts. Belts, transmissions, gears, fuel filter, oil seals and gaskets, batteries (ICE's need them too), spark plugs, fuel pump, fuel injector, alternator, radiator and water pump, catalytic converter, etc etc . Brakes also wear slower on EVs since regnerative braking captures some energy. Electric motors themselves are far more reliable and simpler than ICE motors.
    - xxs 2y ago
      since you mention the radiator, the EV needs quite the cooling as well; although I do agree for the most part. The electric motors are a lot simpler than even a small engine lawnmower.
      - traceroute66 2y ago
        > batteries (ICE's need them too) I've replaced a few ICE batteries in my time. You can replace them at home in 5 minutes and they are a gazillion times cheaper than an EV battery. :) > ICE has a very complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts. Belts, transmissions, gears, fuel filter, oil seals and gaskets This whole thing about ICE is FUD IMHO. Yes, complex, but on modern ICE vehicles is highly-reliable. Also I would argue with EVs you are replacing ICE "complexity" with other complexity. For example, in EVs you now have individual motors on four wheels (i.e. potentially four points of failure), you have all the software in EVs etc. etc. etc. I would also argue that the ICE "complexity" of what you speak is NOT where the bulk of ICE maintenance costs come from. Afterall, topping up the oil and replacing gaskets is kids work. The bulk of ICE maintenance will ultimately be the same as EV maintenance, i.e. all the wear-and-tear parts I listed already, such as tyres.
- yreg 2y ago
  Used EVs tend to be quite expensive for now, at least in EU. But it's certainly also affected by supply/demand, there are simply not that many used EVs for sale yet. And at least in case of Teslas it's mostly the higher models in higher trims, since those are the ones the early customers bought.
bitshiftfaced 2y ago
It just seems like instead of the cost being a function of miles, an EV's cost function would include miles and battery age or usage.
DennisP 2y ago
Here's data on EV battery replacement rates: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter... Replacements do happen, but a lot of them are under warranty. Batteries are lasting longer than people expected, mainly due to really good management systems. These days the industry expects them to usually last the life of the car, though that allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original. Further tweaks to battery chemistry will probably improve things further. I might not buy an EV with 100K miles on it just yet, but I'd do 30K; a lot of the warranties go to 100K. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric-car-batteries-lasting-longer-than-predicted-delays-recycling-programs/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric...
- steveBK123 2y ago
  Agreed the replacement rates have been lower than anticipated. The only problems have been the predictable ones - bad designs like the early Nissan Leafs which had no thermal management. That said, the amount of datapoints here should increase by orders of magnitude over the next 2-3 years as the first million Model 3s roll out of their 8 year battery warranty period. I'm sure that once there is regular demand for battery replacements, the cost won't be much different than an engine rebuild. So even the pessimist case for EVs today is "well the TCO is lower for the first decade but then..." and I think we will be solving the "but then.." soon.
- chii 2y ago
  > allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original. which means when buying a car, you expect the range listed on the label to only be 70% effective.
  - mirsadm 2y ago
    What do you mean? When I buy an ICE car I am not buying it with the expectation that the engine and transmission will die imminently. Why would you assume 70% capacity for an EV?
throwaway48476 2y ago
I assumed there would be a market for new aftermarket batteries but it hasn't developed at all. Theoretically a battery pack isn't the most complicated thing and electrical compatibility is a lot easier to achieve than for a ICE.
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  I saw a teenager on YouTube replace the battery on an early LEAF with a newer, higher capacity pack from a later model and (separately) a Chinese firm offering replacement packs for the same car at capacities never offered by the OEM. Notably the kid said the hardest thing about the swap was sourcing the replacement battery.
  - steveBK123 2y ago
    Rich Rebuilds used to do stuff like this too. I really think given a few more years when millions of Model 3s/Ys reach their 2nd/3rd owners, we will see this become more routine. Also people talk about pack replacements like they are a single monolith but many cars have packs composed of 10-20 modules. Some modules can even be repaired at the cell level. So costs can trend down over time.
    - throwaway48476 2y ago
      The trend has been towards unrepairable monolithic packs. You could do module replacement in the model S packs but since model 3 it's all full of foam.
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    Swapping for a used battery is pretty easy if you have a lift. Far easy than swapping an ICE engine. It makes sense that there's more aftermarket batteries in China as they have far more EVs and willingness to tinker. We in the US have become cultural allergic to tinkering, everyone cries that you're voiding the warranty or it's too dangerous.
- MrHamburger 2y ago
greenthrow 2y ago
You are talking out of your posterior. EVs are far more reliable and have less maintenance than ICE vehicles.
- saturn8601 2y ago
  You say that and maybe some stats prove it but then when insurance rates are significantly higher and we see horror stories of drivetrain failures or battery failures, it makes it harder to jump on board.
  - potato3732842 2y ago
    >insurance rates are significantly higher The insurance rates are higher because they gotta cover six months of rental car while some unobtanium back ordered headlight takes 3mo to ship to the one body shop in 100mi that won't actually get around to working on it for another 3mo (I'm exagerating a little here but not nearly as much as I wish I was). We all pay for it on some level.
- lupusreal 2y ago
  Less than ICE vehicles generally, including American and European shitboxes? Perhaps. Better than a Japanese car with a clean history? Not according to the auto loan people at my credit union. Quite frankly, I trust them a lot more than internet commenters. They have a financial incentive to have good statistics on how cars keep their value. What's more, I trust them a lot more to make recommendations based purely off those statistics, uncompromised by ideology and/or environmental concern. Internet commenters are the same clowns who would have me believe it's rational and practical to give up my car and rely on public transit... in America. So yeah, I bought a Jap ICE car.
  - greenthrow 2y ago
    The people at your credit union know nothing about car reliability. There have been studies about EV reliability and it is much higher than any ICE vehicles. Battery degradation is averaging 1-1.5% per year, which is basically nothing. Stop spreading misinformation. Also "Jap" is considered a slur.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

Lutger 2y ago

That is surprising, I've always thought the value proposition of used EV would be miles ahead of ICE vehicles, at least the more modern ones. A quick google also confirms that the average life expectancy in mileage of EV is already ahead of ICE cars. Generally, EV have the reputation of requiring much less maintenance.

lordofgibbons 2y ago
Ever have your phone or laptop not hold the charge it used to when you first bought it? The same thing happens to car batteries. This certainly doesn't help with people's range anxiety. I'm on the sideline waiting for the battery tech to improve a bit more before buying my next (electric) car. As an aside, I'm horrified by what new privacy invasive "features" these cars will include in all electric cars.
- traceroute66 2y ago
  > I'm horrified by what new privacy invasive "features" these cars will include in all electric cars. My main horror with EVs, particularly Teslas is putting everything on a tablet display in the middle. Its like it was designed by some kid who's never driven a car. Its a safety issue, frankly. IMHO.
  - jcgrillo 2y ago
    In many U.S. states using a cell phone while driving is illegal under distracted driving rules. It should be the same for touch screens of all kinds.
- necrobrit 2y ago
  Data is a bit light on the ground given we haven't had masses of EVs for all that long. But I wouldn't necessarily have this expectation based off of phones and laptops. EVs have really high-end battery management systems and cooling, which will have a huge impact on battery life. Heck even my phone is lasting better these days with just better software battery management in Android. My current oneplus 9 is going on three and a half years old and hasn't notably degraded in battery life. Whereas I'm pretty sure I remember all my previous phones having noticeable battery degradation after a year or so.
- xxs 2y ago
  >Ever have your phone or laptop not hold the charge it used to when you first bought it? While true, the analogy is bad. The phones (and to some extent laptops) are notorious of the overcharge. The Li-Ion (cobalt) normally should be charged to 4.22V or so. Tool batteries usually do not go over 4.18V. Yet, the phones are happily pushing 4.35V - which provides longer life per charge initially, plus a proper planned obsolescence later. EV do proper battery management AND cooling.
  - formerly_proven 2y ago
    At the very extreme end, Apple Watch batteries have a 3.87 V nominal and 4.45 V end of charge voltage. Most lipoly pouch cells would turn into a balloon trying to do that once.
traceroute66 2y ago
> Generally, EV have the reputation of requiring much less maintenance. I'm sure you could generate a maintenance figure for EV that was lower than ICE if you wanted to. But I doubt that figure would be significant, maybe 10-15% if you're lucky. Why ? Well, let's face it, an EV is still a car. So you still have 99% of the same old things ... tyres, brakes, shock-absorbers, windscreen, windscreen wiper blades, washer fluid, AC gas etc. etc. etc. And then, of course, if there are problems with your EV battery, or its time for an EV battery replacement, then that 10-15% saving goes out the window. :)
- chrisco255 2y ago
  > an EV is still a car. So you still have the same old things ... No, an ICE has a very complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts. Belts, transmissions, gears, fuel filter, oil seals and gaskets, batteries (ICE's need them too), spark plugs, fuel pump, fuel injector, alternator, radiator and water pump, catalytic converter, etc etc . Brakes also wear slower on EVs since regnerative braking captures some energy. Electric motors themselves are far more reliable and simpler than ICE motors.
  - xxs 2y ago
    since you mention the radiator, the EV needs quite the cooling as well; although I do agree for the most part. The electric motors are a lot simpler than even a small engine lawnmower.
    - traceroute66 2y ago
      > batteries (ICE's need them too) I've replaced a few ICE batteries in my time. You can replace them at home in 5 minutes and they are a gazillion times cheaper than an EV battery. :) > ICE has a very complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts. Belts, transmissions, gears, fuel filter, oil seals and gaskets This whole thing about ICE is FUD IMHO. Yes, complex, but on modern ICE vehicles is highly-reliable. Also I would argue with EVs you are replacing ICE "complexity" with other complexity. For example, in EVs you now have individual motors on four wheels (i.e. potentially four points of failure), you have all the software in EVs etc. etc. etc. I would also argue that the ICE "complexity" of what you speak is NOT where the bulk of ICE maintenance costs come from. Afterall, topping up the oil and replacing gaskets is kids work. The bulk of ICE maintenance will ultimately be the same as EV maintenance, i.e. all the wear-and-tear parts I listed already, such as tyres.
yreg 2y ago
Used EVs tend to be quite expensive for now, at least in EU. But it's certainly also affected by supply/demand, there are simply not that many used EVs for sale yet. And at least in case of Teslas it's mostly the higher models in higher trims, since those are the ones the early customers bought.

bitshiftfaced 2y ago

It just seems like instead of the cost being a function of miles, an EV's cost function would include miles and battery age or usage.

DennisP 2y ago

Here's data on EV battery replacement rates: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter... Replacements do happen, but a lot of them are under warranty. Batteries are lasting longer than people expected, mainly due to really good management systems. These days the industry expects them to usually last the life of the car, though that allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original. Further tweaks to battery chemistry will probably improve things further. I might not buy an EV with 100K miles on it just yet, but I'd do 30K; a lot of the warranties go to 100K. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric-car-batteries-lasting-longer-than-predicted-delays-recycling-programs/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric...

steveBK123 2y ago
Agreed the replacement rates have been lower than anticipated. The only problems have been the predictable ones - bad designs like the early Nissan Leafs which had no thermal management. That said, the amount of datapoints here should increase by orders of magnitude over the next 2-3 years as the first million Model 3s roll out of their 8 year battery warranty period. I'm sure that once there is regular demand for battery replacements, the cost won't be much different than an engine rebuild. So even the pessimist case for EVs today is "well the TCO is lower for the first decade but then..." and I think we will be solving the "but then.." soon.
chii 2y ago
> allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original. which means when buying a car, you expect the range listed on the label to only be 70% effective.
- mirsadm 2y ago
  What do you mean? When I buy an ICE car I am not buying it with the expectation that the engine and transmission will die imminently. Why would you assume 70% capacity for an EV?

throwaway48476 2y ago

I assumed there would be a market for new aftermarket batteries but it hasn't developed at all. Theoretically a battery pack isn't the most complicated thing and electrical compatibility is a lot easier to achieve than for a ICE.

ZeroGravitas 2y ago
I saw a teenager on YouTube replace the battery on an early LEAF with a newer, higher capacity pack from a later model and (separately) a Chinese firm offering replacement packs for the same car at capacities never offered by the OEM. Notably the kid said the hardest thing about the swap was sourcing the replacement battery.
- steveBK123 2y ago
  Rich Rebuilds used to do stuff like this too. I really think given a few more years when millions of Model 3s/Ys reach their 2nd/3rd owners, we will see this become more routine. Also people talk about pack replacements like they are a single monolith but many cars have packs composed of 10-20 modules. Some modules can even be repaired at the cell level. So costs can trend down over time.
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    The trend has been towards unrepairable monolithic packs. You could do module replacement in the model S packs but since model 3 it's all full of foam.
- throwaway48476 2y ago
  Swapping for a used battery is pretty easy if you have a lift. Far easy than swapping an ICE engine. It makes sense that there's more aftermarket batteries in China as they have far more EVs and willingness to tinker. We in the US have become cultural allergic to tinkering, everyone cries that you're voiding the warranty or it's too dangerous.
MrHamburger 2y ago

greenthrow 2y ago

You are talking out of your posterior. EVs are far more reliable and have less maintenance than ICE vehicles.

saturn8601 2y ago
You say that and maybe some stats prove it but then when insurance rates are significantly higher and we see horror stories of drivetrain failures or battery failures, it makes it harder to jump on board.
- potato3732842 2y ago
  >insurance rates are significantly higher The insurance rates are higher because they gotta cover six months of rental car while some unobtanium back ordered headlight takes 3mo to ship to the one body shop in 100mi that won't actually get around to working on it for another 3mo (I'm exagerating a little here but not nearly as much as I wish I was). We all pay for it on some level.
lupusreal 2y ago
Less than ICE vehicles generally, including American and European shitboxes? Perhaps. Better than a Japanese car with a clean history? Not according to the auto loan people at my credit union. Quite frankly, I trust them a lot more than internet commenters. They have a financial incentive to have good statistics on how cars keep their value. What's more, I trust them a lot more to make recommendations based purely off those statistics, uncompromised by ideology and/or environmental concern. Internet commenters are the same clowns who would have me believe it's rational and practical to give up my car and rely on public transit... in America. So yeah, I bought a Jap ICE car.
- greenthrow 2y ago
  The people at your credit union know nothing about car reliability. There have been studies about EV reliability and it is much higher than any ICE vehicles. Battery degradation is averaging 1-1.5% per year, which is basically nothing. Stop spreading misinformation. Also "Jap" is considered a slur.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]