4 ms·

Musk gets obsessed with big bets when people tell him something isn't possible. That, plus the hardware costs are much saner for Tesla if they don't need a bunc

Musk gets obsessed with big bets when people tell him something isn't possible. That, plus the hardware costs are much saner for Tesla if they don't need a bunch of lidars. That said, this particular big bet looks pretty bad for Musk. He's been confidently promising self-driving either "this year" or "next year" for the last several years, and so far Tesla appears nowhere close to getting L4/L5 driving down.

gambiting 2y ago
I mean, Volvo is already delivering the EX90 with a LIDAR integrated from factory for similar money to the Model X - and I can't imagine Volvo is losing money on them, so it can be done. Tesla just chose not to. And yes, I know the EX90 is currently an absolute mess in terms of software and their LIDAR isn't even enabled for driving assists yet, but the hardware is there so it can be built on scale.
- b112 2y ago
  I presume there is a bigger game here. Androids, eg humanform robots, will require the capacity to navigate on camera alone. Specifically, loads of object detection with smaller objects, imagine an android cleaning off a table after dinner. Visual spectrum, camera identification is vital here. So it's all one ball of wax. Tesla is not juet a car company, likely in 5 years the number of androids they sell will dwarf car sales.
  - zimpenfish 2y ago
    > Androids, eg humanform robots, will require the capacity to navigate on camera alone. But those cameras don't have to be simple visual spectrum cameras, do they? They could have, for example, in each eye, LIDAR, infrared, several focal lengths of visual, etc. Not to mention being able to augment those sensors at places humans just don't get sensor data (e.g: back of head; outward facing from shoulders, hips, etc.; constant presence monitoring via ultrasound / IR / 2.4GHz, etc.)
    - b112 2y ago
      But those cameras don't have to be simple visual spectrum cameras, do they? They do, if they want to do comparative analysis on the trillions upon trillions of existing photographs, and even motion picture frames. Not to mention the entire AI industry is working full out for perfect image recognition, again in our visual spectrum. Something apparent to a person working with openai 5 years ago.
  - blitzar 2y ago
    Ahh 10-d chess.
  - bugglebeetle 2y ago
    Tesla will likely never accomplish anything with robots because they can’t even build a car to typical market standards of quality and robotics is even more greenfield and unrefined in its mass production processes. I guess maybe it’s possible if someone like Shotwell takes over and Musk is relegated to a similar figurehead position.
  - kmarc 2y ago
    Genuine question, why do they require that they navigate on camera alone? I have a robomop which does some pretty accurate scanning with its radar. I thought this is cheap, consumer appliance grade technology already.
  - ywvcbk 2y ago
    > likely in 5 years the number of androids Why would you ever want an unstable bipedal robot? Alternatives seem way more efficient. Also are you predicting that Teslas sales will collapse and they’ll lose most of their EV market share? Because that’s a pretty bold take
- IshKebab 2y ago
  It looks like the EX90 lidar only points forwards, which is insufficient for full self-driving.

gambiting 2y ago

I mean, Volvo is already delivering the EX90 with a LIDAR integrated from factory for similar money to the Model X - and I can't imagine Volvo is losing money on them, so it can be done. Tesla just chose not to. And yes, I know the EX90 is currently an absolute mess in terms of software and their LIDAR isn't even enabled for driving assists yet, but the hardware is there so it can be built on scale.

b112 2y ago
I presume there is a bigger game here. Androids, eg humanform robots, will require the capacity to navigate on camera alone. Specifically, loads of object detection with smaller objects, imagine an android cleaning off a table after dinner. Visual spectrum, camera identification is vital here. So it's all one ball of wax. Tesla is not juet a car company, likely in 5 years the number of androids they sell will dwarf car sales.
- zimpenfish 2y ago
  > Androids, eg humanform robots, will require the capacity to navigate on camera alone. But those cameras don't have to be simple visual spectrum cameras, do they? They could have, for example, in each eye, LIDAR, infrared, several focal lengths of visual, etc. Not to mention being able to augment those sensors at places humans just don't get sensor data (e.g: back of head; outward facing from shoulders, hips, etc.; constant presence monitoring via ultrasound / IR / 2.4GHz, etc.)
  - b112 2y ago
    But those cameras don't have to be simple visual spectrum cameras, do they? They do, if they want to do comparative analysis on the trillions upon trillions of existing photographs, and even motion picture frames. Not to mention the entire AI industry is working full out for perfect image recognition, again in our visual spectrum. Something apparent to a person working with openai 5 years ago.
- blitzar 2y ago
  Ahh 10-d chess.
- bugglebeetle 2y ago
  Tesla will likely never accomplish anything with robots because they can’t even build a car to typical market standards of quality and robotics is even more greenfield and unrefined in its mass production processes. I guess maybe it’s possible if someone like Shotwell takes over and Musk is relegated to a similar figurehead position.
- kmarc 2y ago
  Genuine question, why do they require that they navigate on camera alone? I have a robomop which does some pretty accurate scanning with its radar. I thought this is cheap, consumer appliance grade technology already.
- ywvcbk 2y ago
  > likely in 5 years the number of androids Why would you ever want an unstable bipedal robot? Alternatives seem way more efficient. Also are you predicting that Teslas sales will collapse and they’ll lose most of their EV market share? Because that’s a pretty bold take
IshKebab 2y ago
It looks like the EX90 lidar only points forwards, which is insufficient for full self-driving.