5 ms·

When solar and wind and sodium ion batteries are basically there and probably don't need as much investment and R&D (or it's happening anyway from 1000 existing

by oblio 2y ago

When solar and wind and sodium ion batteries are basically there and probably don't need as much investment and R&D (or it's happening anyway from 1000 existing funding sources), it's probably bad. Or at least unlikely to happen.

cyberax 2y ago
Sodium batteries theoretically should be cheaper than li-ion, but they are not yet there in practice. And they still won't solve problems with polar vortexes in the US or a month-long Dunkelflaute in Germany.
- conradev 2y ago
  CATL’s first generation sodium batteries, shipped in Chery cars are $77/kWh CATL’s lithium phosphate batteries are more expensive for now at >$100kWh. Sodium batteries are definitely cheaper in practice, but much lower energy density. The question is how far CATL can push energy density, and the second generation is claimed to be >200Wh/kh. https://www.autoevolution.com/news/catl-and-byd-to-start-production-of-sodium-ion-batteries-westerners-left-behind-again-214061.html https://www.autoevolution.com/news/catl-and-byd-to-start-pro... https://www.westchestercleanenergy.com/post/record-low-lithium-ion-battery-cell-prices https://www.westchestercleanenergy.com/post/record-low-lithi...
  - oblio 2y ago
    Energy density is a bit less relevant for grid storage, though. Not like you run out of space to put them.
    - conradev 2y ago
      Very true. The other factors multiply, though, like reliability and degradation, because there are so many packs involved and because they're expected to work for, well, as long as physically possible.
- atwrk 2y ago
  Dunkelflaute simply doesn't exist. It's clearly visible in the charts of the last years that wind and solar almost ideally complement each other in Germany. Why else do you think Germany managed to stay above 50% renewables for every single month this year so far? In which season is the mythical Dunkelflaute supposed to appear?
  - cyberax 2y ago
    > Dunkelflaute simply doesn't exist. Here's one: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area&interval=month&year=2019&month=01&source=sw https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&... - look at the dates between 2019-01-16 to 2019-01-25. > It's clearly visible in the charts of the last years I have just provided you an example. Want more? Here's another: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area&interval=month&year=2023&month=02&source=sw https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&... - the period between 2023-02-04 and 2024-02-08, then followed by 2023-02-12 to 2023-02-15. But hey, it's all fake news. When the next Dunkelflaute happens, the citizens are supposed to just sit in their cold homes and think how great renewable generation is during the other times.
    - ViewTrick1002 2y ago
      And here's the correlation coefficient between countries: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-coefficients-of-Dunkelflaute-occurrences-between-eleven-European-countries_fig4_355173603 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-coefficients... Like today we will need peaking capacity in the future, likely either based on hydrogen, synfuels or biofuels. What we don't need is nuclear power plants which sit idle at all times unless there is a winter dunkeflaute across half of Europe.
      - cyberax 2y ago
        > https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-coefficients https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-coefficients... The problem is, this is average. You _have_ to plan the grid for the worst case scenario. For Germany, the worst case is 1 month of straight Dunkelflaute. It's estimated to happen once in 100 years. > Like today we will need peaking capacity in the future, likely either based on hydrogen, synfuels or biofuels. It's not peaking capacity. It has to be more than 100% of the current capacity (once Germany switches to electricity instead of gas for heating). And it'll be mostly sitting idle. > What we don't need is nuclear power plants which sit idle at all times unless there is a winter dunkeflaute across half of Europe. Build nukes, remove wind generators. Problem solved.
- energy123 2y ago
  They don't need to solve month-long dunkelflaute. You burn a little natural gas for that. The priority for climate change mitigation is to get to 97% carbon free soon, rather than 100% carbon free in 30 years. The AUC of emissions is all that matters. Also, both li-on and sodium are cheap and getting cheaper, so the latter being more expensive currently is kind of moot.
  - cyberax 2y ago
    > You burn a little natural gas for that. For that you need to have 100% of idle capacity just sitting there. > The priority for climate change mitigation is to get to 97% carbon free soon No, it's not. The priority is to shake down consumers to get as much money to Greenie cronies as possible. That's why Germany is straightforwardly _subsidizig_ new natural gas power plants. With a pinkie-promise to be "hydrogen ready", maybe sometime in 2030-s.
Manuel_D 2y ago
Intermittency is a tough thing to handle. The US uses 12,000 GWh of electricity per day. The word used 60,000 GWh per day. Evening out daily fluctuations, let alone seasonal fluctuations, demands an enormous amount of storage.
- nosbo 2y ago
  Or just overbuild your generation sources?
  - fooqux 2y ago
    How is overbuilding going to help when the source of the power itself is intermittent? The sun regularly sets and the wind has this unfortunate habit of not blowing. Or, oddly enough, blowing too much. If we hope to go 100% renewable, storage is a key piece of that puzzle.
    - snapplebobapple 2y ago
      It wont help much but it was the actul solution when the main source of electricity was fossil fuels because you could stockpile the fossil fuel
    - bobthepanda 2y ago
      Nuclear also has this problem because it cannot be easily tuned down during low demand periods. Much of the pumped hydro that exists today was built to handle excess nuclear.
      - Manuel_D 2y ago
        Nuclear's electrical output can indeed be turned down, by over-cooling the steam in the turbines. The reactor is putting out the same power, but less electricity is generated since you're deliberately increasing waste heat. This is not efficient so it's rarely done. Furthermore, too much energy is a far easier problem to solve than too little energy. People can desalinate water, or do any other energy intensive things.
petre 2y ago
We already have rain and hydro power plants. Batteries are similar: they store a finite amount of energy. So battery PV and wind have their place as peaker plants to replace gas fired power plants and hydro. Otherwise one could just smelt aluminium with the excess electricity like the Germans do.

by oblio 2y ago

cyberax 2y ago

Sodium batteries theoretically should be cheaper than li-ion, but they are not yet there in practice. And they still won't solve problems with polar vortexes in the US or a month-long Dunkelflaute in Germany.

conradev 2y ago
CATL’s first generation sodium batteries, shipped in Chery cars are $77/kWh CATL’s lithium phosphate batteries are more expensive for now at >$100kWh. Sodium batteries are definitely cheaper in practice, but much lower energy density. The question is how far CATL can push energy density, and the second generation is claimed to be >200Wh/kh. https://www.autoevolution.com/news/catl-and-byd-to-start-production-of-sodium-ion-batteries-westerners-left-behind-again-214061.html https://www.autoevolution.com/news/catl-and-byd-to-start-pro... https://www.westchestercleanenergy.com/post/record-low-lithium-ion-battery-cell-prices https://www.westchestercleanenergy.com/post/record-low-lithi...
- oblio 2y ago
  Energy density is a bit less relevant for grid storage, though. Not like you run out of space to put them.
  - conradev 2y ago
    Very true. The other factors multiply, though, like reliability and degradation, because there are so many packs involved and because they're expected to work for, well, as long as physically possible.
atwrk 2y ago
Dunkelflaute simply doesn't exist. It's clearly visible in the charts of the last years that wind and solar almost ideally complement each other in Germany. Why else do you think Germany managed to stay above 50% renewables for every single month this year so far? In which season is the mythical Dunkelflaute supposed to appear?
- cyberax 2y ago
  > Dunkelflaute simply doesn't exist. Here's one: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area&interval=month&year=2019&month=01&source=sw https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&... - look at the dates between 2019-01-16 to 2019-01-25. > It's clearly visible in the charts of the last years I have just provided you an example. Want more? Here's another: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area&interval=month&year=2023&month=02&source=sw https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&... - the period between 2023-02-04 and 2024-02-08, then followed by 2023-02-12 to 2023-02-15. But hey, it's all fake news. When the next Dunkelflaute happens, the citizens are supposed to just sit in their cold homes and think how great renewable generation is during the other times.
  - ViewTrick1002 2y ago
    And here's the correlation coefficient between countries: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-coefficients-of-Dunkelflaute-occurrences-between-eleven-European-countries_fig4_355173603 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-coefficients... Like today we will need peaking capacity in the future, likely either based on hydrogen, synfuels or biofuels. What we don't need is nuclear power plants which sit idle at all times unless there is a winter dunkeflaute across half of Europe.
    - cyberax 2y ago
      > https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-coefficients https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-coefficients... The problem is, this is average. You _have_ to plan the grid for the worst case scenario. For Germany, the worst case is 1 month of straight Dunkelflaute. It's estimated to happen once in 100 years. > Like today we will need peaking capacity in the future, likely either based on hydrogen, synfuels or biofuels. It's not peaking capacity. It has to be more than 100% of the current capacity (once Germany switches to electricity instead of gas for heating). And it'll be mostly sitting idle. > What we don't need is nuclear power plants which sit idle at all times unless there is a winter dunkeflaute across half of Europe. Build nukes, remove wind generators. Problem solved.
energy123 2y ago
They don't need to solve month-long dunkelflaute. You burn a little natural gas for that. The priority for climate change mitigation is to get to 97% carbon free soon, rather than 100% carbon free in 30 years. The AUC of emissions is all that matters. Also, both li-on and sodium are cheap and getting cheaper, so the latter being more expensive currently is kind of moot.
- cyberax 2y ago
  > You burn a little natural gas for that. For that you need to have 100% of idle capacity just sitting there. > The priority for climate change mitigation is to get to 97% carbon free soon No, it's not. The priority is to shake down consumers to get as much money to Greenie cronies as possible. That's why Germany is straightforwardly _subsidizig_ new natural gas power plants. With a pinkie-promise to be "hydrogen ready", maybe sometime in 2030-s.

Manuel_D 2y ago

Intermittency is a tough thing to handle. The US uses 12,000 GWh of electricity per day. The word used 60,000 GWh per day. Evening out daily fluctuations, let alone seasonal fluctuations, demands an enormous amount of storage.

nosbo 2y ago
Or just overbuild your generation sources?
- fooqux 2y ago
  How is overbuilding going to help when the source of the power itself is intermittent? The sun regularly sets and the wind has this unfortunate habit of not blowing. Or, oddly enough, blowing too much. If we hope to go 100% renewable, storage is a key piece of that puzzle.
  - snapplebobapple 2y ago
    It wont help much but it was the actul solution when the main source of electricity was fossil fuels because you could stockpile the fossil fuel
  - bobthepanda 2y ago
    Nuclear also has this problem because it cannot be easily tuned down during low demand periods. Much of the pumped hydro that exists today was built to handle excess nuclear.
    - Manuel_D 2y ago
      Nuclear's electrical output can indeed be turned down, by over-cooling the steam in the turbines. The reactor is putting out the same power, but less electricity is generated since you're deliberately increasing waste heat. This is not efficient so it's rarely done. Furthermore, too much energy is a far easier problem to solve than too little energy. People can desalinate water, or do any other energy intensive things.

petre 2y ago

We already have rain and hydro power plants. Batteries are similar: they store a finite amount of energy. So battery PV and wind have their place as peaker plants to replace gas fired power plants and hydro. Otherwise one could just smelt aluminium with the excess electricity like the Germans do.