5 ms·

A few generations of what, pretending their robots work?

modeless 2y ago
Honestly, I don't know why I bother continuing to engage here. HN community, is this the quality of discourse you want to encourage?
- jazzyjackson 2y ago
  [flagged]
- ivewonyoung 2y ago
  We had people swearing up and down that the Cybertruck would never be released because it was stock fraud. They already seem to be at a run rate of $1.5 billion in revenue per quarter despite launching in a limited fashion because of manufacturing ramp up.
  - beeflet 2y ago
    I haven't really been tracking this, but aren't they selling at a price much greater than they originially announced? I would classify it as "mixed success"
    - modeless 2y ago
      The base model isn't entering production until next year but is quoted by Car and Driver as starting at $62,985. The original price was supposed to be $39,900. However there has been >20% inflation since then, and the base model should be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit applied as an instant rebate at purchase time, which was not available at the time of announcement. All that to say: the price actually paid will be $55,485, vs the inflation adjusted original base model price of $48,912 (possibly higher if there is more inflation before the release next year). So yes, the price you'd actually pay has gone up 13% in real terms over the announcement price. But I think the extra 4 years of delay (for the base model vs the announced availability date of 2021) is the bigger issue. But ultimately all that matters from Tesla's perspective is that they are selling. My understanding is that even the current top end expensive models are selling about as many units as all other electric trucks combined.
      - Dylan16807 2y ago
        > The original price was supposed to be $39,900. However there has been >20% inflation since then That price was announced with a significant lead time, so at least 5-6% inflation was built in already. > and the base model should be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit applied as an instant rebate at purchase time, which was not available at the time of announcement. It wasn't available that exact moment, but it existed. > All that to say: the price actually paid will be $55,485, vs the inflation adjusted original base model price of $48,912 (possibly higher if there is more inflation before the release next year). So yes, the price you'd actually pay has gone up 13% in real terms over the announcement price. I'd put the inflation-adjusted price at $46k, and not use the $7500 to reduce the difference, making $63k a 36% increase. Or I'd apply the $7500 to both and get 44%.
        modeless 2y ago
        The $7500 existed only for other manufacturers. It had expired entirely for Tesla. No Tesla model was eligible for any more credits at that time and there was no particular reason to believe that Tesla would ever become eligible again in the future. Also, the credit back then did not directly reduce the price paid at purchase time the way it does today. I think it is fair to apply the credit when comparing to the announced price. Tesla certainly takes the credit into account when they set pricing and buyers account for it when purchasing. Also it was announced at the end of 2019 for 2021 and the inflation rate in 2019 was 1.8% so there's no way they accounted for 6% inflation. 4% at most.
        Dylan16807 2y ago
        The rebate had existed before, and the quota renewing at some point between announcement and release was not a crazy idea. If Tesla's jacking up the price because of that rebate, they get NO credit for it. 63k is what they are charging and what I will judge them on. And I don't think the exact moment it applies really matters.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
    - ivewonyoung 2y ago
      Whether it'd be a true success remains to be seen, at least in terms of making a profit on total investment. My point was that it certainly wasn't vaporware, even if it didn't sell well.
- newZWhoDis 2y ago
  The discussion you’re looking for is happening over on X. It’s long been dead here.

Honestly, I don't know why I bother continuing to engage here. HN community, is this the quality of discourse you want to encourage?

jazzyjackson 2y ago
[flagged]
ivewonyoung 2y ago
We had people swearing up and down that the Cybertruck would never be released because it was stock fraud. They already seem to be at a run rate of $1.5 billion in revenue per quarter despite launching in a limited fashion because of manufacturing ramp up.
- beeflet 2y ago
  I haven't really been tracking this, but aren't they selling at a price much greater than they originially announced? I would classify it as "mixed success"
  - modeless 2y ago
    The base model isn't entering production until next year but is quoted by Car and Driver as starting at $62,985. The original price was supposed to be $39,900. However there has been >20% inflation since then, and the base model should be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit applied as an instant rebate at purchase time, which was not available at the time of announcement. All that to say: the price actually paid will be $55,485, vs the inflation adjusted original base model price of $48,912 (possibly higher if there is more inflation before the release next year). So yes, the price you'd actually pay has gone up 13% in real terms over the announcement price. But I think the extra 4 years of delay (for the base model vs the announced availability date of 2021) is the bigger issue. But ultimately all that matters from Tesla's perspective is that they are selling. My understanding is that even the current top end expensive models are selling about as many units as all other electric trucks combined.
    - Dylan16807 2y ago
      > The original price was supposed to be $39,900. However there has been >20% inflation since then That price was announced with a significant lead time, so at least 5-6% inflation was built in already. > and the base model should be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit applied as an instant rebate at purchase time, which was not available at the time of announcement. It wasn't available that exact moment, but it existed. > All that to say: the price actually paid will be $55,485, vs the inflation adjusted original base model price of $48,912 (possibly higher if there is more inflation before the release next year). So yes, the price you'd actually pay has gone up 13% in real terms over the announcement price. I'd put the inflation-adjusted price at $46k, and not use the $7500 to reduce the difference, making $63k a 36% increase. Or I'd apply the $7500 to both and get 44%.
      - modeless 2y ago
        The $7500 existed only for other manufacturers. It had expired entirely for Tesla. No Tesla model was eligible for any more credits at that time and there was no particular reason to believe that Tesla would ever become eligible again in the future. Also, the credit back then did not directly reduce the price paid at purchase time the way it does today. I think it is fair to apply the credit when comparing to the announced price. Tesla certainly takes the credit into account when they set pricing and buyers account for it when purchasing. Also it was announced at the end of 2019 for 2021 and the inflation rate in 2019 was 1.8% so there's no way they accounted for 6% inflation. 4% at most.
        Dylan16807 2y ago
        The rebate had existed before, and the quota renewing at some point between announcement and release was not a crazy idea. If Tesla's jacking up the price because of that rebate, they get NO credit for it. 63k is what they are charging and what I will judge them on. And I don't think the exact moment it applies really matters.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
  - ivewonyoung 2y ago
    Whether it'd be a true success remains to be seen, at least in terms of making a profit on total investment. My point was that it certainly wasn't vaporware, even if it didn't sell well.
newZWhoDis 2y ago
The discussion you’re looking for is happening over on X. It’s long been dead here.