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"The wave of investment is minting a new class of millionaires across the country, one that small-business owners say is helping add more shine to working with

"The wave of investment is minting a new class of millionaires across the country, one that small-business owners say is helping add more shine to working with a tool belt." How naive. PE does not enter a market in order to make existing workers into millionaires, but to create a monopoly/monopsony where they can gouge both customers and employees, to extract maximum profit. Quite often, the goal is not even to run the market sustainably, but just to produce optical profits for a quick resale. A few local contractors may get bought out and become millionaires, but everyone else will be impoverished. We can probably even predict some next steps. They will recommend and lobby for various 'safety' regulations or certifications that would be difficult for smaller shops to meet, and then pressure commercial landlords, housing associations, etc to require those certifications.

halfcat 2y ago
Exactly. Eventually regulatory capture begins and eventually enshittification. No one can start a new plumbing/HVAC small business. Your only option is to go work for Walmart (metaphorically speaking).
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  > No one can start a new plumbing/HVAC small business. This isn't true at all, I know several people who have done it.
  - khrbrt 2y ago
    They meant after consolidations.
  - raziel2701 2y ago
    I understood OP's comment as once PE comes in, monopolizes and regulatory captures, then no one can start a new plumbing/HVAC small business.
    - Kon-Peki 2y ago
      Yeah, I think that’s the sentiment. I do wonder how true it can be, however. I wonder how it is in various states, but at least where I live the actual plumbers get licensed, not the plumbing company. So what can they do to stop it? NDAs? Non-Competes? The state also takes a dim view on such things until you are paying someone a significant amount of W-2 money. SEO? Brand recognition? Well anyway, a few months ago I shared a table at a restaurant with someone that worked at a family office, and was buying up landscaping companies. I asked some questions in a polite and friendly manner; nothing too pointed or invasive. But came away with the idea that there is a lot of money out there looking for something to do, and not a lot of good ideas.
      - sokoloff 2y ago
        Creating ever more onerous/costly/time-consuming requirements for lengthy apprenticeships or other licensing gatekeeping is one common way to restrict supply, all while appearing to be serving the public interest.
      - TrueSlacker0 2y ago
        "where I live the actual plumbers get licensed, not the plumbing company." Which then leads to plumbing shops were the licensed plumber doesn't even work there and just rents out the license to the business so it can operate. Plumbing certs are a complete pyramid scheme.
  - halfcat 2y ago
    Not unless you know time travelers. It’s a statement about the future, and how this kind of industry consolidation tends toward regulatory capture. So in 5 years or so, we suddenly see laws everywhere that require expensive certifications, new kinds of insurances, audit requirements, and so on in the name of “safety” no one can start a new small business in those industries without a team of consultants, lawyers, big auditing firms, and so forth.
  - Aradalf 2y ago
    Are they also as bad at reading as you?
bebop 2y ago
That has already begun. Saw stop technology is already working it's way into regulations. A decent non saw stop table saw will cost you ~500 USD. A saw stop saw will be 1200.
- HarryHirsch 2y ago
  You can always sell used equipment. There is a thriving market for that.
- nasmorn 2y ago
  But an average table saw used professionally probably cuts more than 700 USD of limbs during its lifetime. So that seems very warranted and no, we will just take care very well is not a real substitute. That is what at least 10% of our parents also thought while we were fathered.
  - charlie0 2y ago
    If my math is right, the cost of even 1 limb greatly exceeds 700USD.
    - nasmorn 2y ago
      I do hope not every table saw cuts of a limb. The cost is probably a couple of hundred thousand but it is spread out over many saws
  - ssl-3 2y ago
    Professionally, sure: It's easy (and correct, I think) to assume that a saw that gets used every day, piling on hours, will do more than $700 worth of damage to its operators over its lifespan -- on average. Even with misfires being expensive (~$400, IIRC), it's still completely sensible to spend the extra money for professional use. I'm not a professional, though. I may need a table saw for some projects, but the projects I undertake that require a table saw are few and are far between. My use won't wear out the saw in my lifetime. Usage of a table saw in my own shop will be at least a couple of orders of magnitude less -- averaging perhaps a few hours per year. Furthermore, without an angry boss-man looming over me to maximize production, I can spend as much time as is necessary to optimize every operation in a safety-first fashion. If we assume that it is just two orders of magnitude of difference, then: Spending an extra $700 for a sawstop-equipped saw is rather unlikely to ever pay for itself in my shop at home. (Now, that's not to say that I wouldn't want this kind of safety feature in my own shop. The idea of losing even part of a finger forever is much scarier to me than spending an extra $700 one time: After all, I can make more money but I can't grow new fingers. It's just not such a financially-obvious choice as it is for professionally-used saws.)

halfcat 2y ago

Exactly. Eventually regulatory capture begins and eventually enshittification. No one can start a new plumbing/HVAC small business. Your only option is to go work for Walmart (metaphorically speaking).

SoftTalker 2y ago
> No one can start a new plumbing/HVAC small business. This isn't true at all, I know several people who have done it.
- khrbrt 2y ago
  They meant after consolidations.
- raziel2701 2y ago
  I understood OP's comment as once PE comes in, monopolizes and regulatory captures, then no one can start a new plumbing/HVAC small business.
  - Kon-Peki 2y ago
    Yeah, I think that’s the sentiment. I do wonder how true it can be, however. I wonder how it is in various states, but at least where I live the actual plumbers get licensed, not the plumbing company. So what can they do to stop it? NDAs? Non-Competes? The state also takes a dim view on such things until you are paying someone a significant amount of W-2 money. SEO? Brand recognition? Well anyway, a few months ago I shared a table at a restaurant with someone that worked at a family office, and was buying up landscaping companies. I asked some questions in a polite and friendly manner; nothing too pointed or invasive. But came away with the idea that there is a lot of money out there looking for something to do, and not a lot of good ideas.
    - sokoloff 2y ago
      Creating ever more onerous/costly/time-consuming requirements for lengthy apprenticeships or other licensing gatekeeping is one common way to restrict supply, all while appearing to be serving the public interest.
    - TrueSlacker0 2y ago
      "where I live the actual plumbers get licensed, not the plumbing company." Which then leads to plumbing shops were the licensed plumber doesn't even work there and just rents out the license to the business so it can operate. Plumbing certs are a complete pyramid scheme.
- halfcat 2y ago
  Not unless you know time travelers. It’s a statement about the future, and how this kind of industry consolidation tends toward regulatory capture. So in 5 years or so, we suddenly see laws everywhere that require expensive certifications, new kinds of insurances, audit requirements, and so on in the name of “safety” no one can start a new small business in those industries without a team of consultants, lawyers, big auditing firms, and so forth.
- Aradalf 2y ago
  Are they also as bad at reading as you?

bebop 2y ago

That has already begun. Saw stop technology is already working it's way into regulations. A decent non saw stop table saw will cost you ~500 USD. A saw stop saw will be 1200.

HarryHirsch 2y ago
You can always sell used equipment. There is a thriving market for that.
nasmorn 2y ago
But an average table saw used professionally probably cuts more than 700 USD of limbs during its lifetime. So that seems very warranted and no, we will just take care very well is not a real substitute. That is what at least 10% of our parents also thought while we were fathered.
- charlie0 2y ago
  If my math is right, the cost of even 1 limb greatly exceeds 700USD.
  - nasmorn 2y ago
    I do hope not every table saw cuts of a limb. The cost is probably a couple of hundred thousand but it is spread out over many saws
- ssl-3 2y ago
  Professionally, sure: It's easy (and correct, I think) to assume that a saw that gets used every day, piling on hours, will do more than $700 worth of damage to its operators over its lifespan -- on average. Even with misfires being expensive (~$400, IIRC), it's still completely sensible to spend the extra money for professional use. I'm not a professional, though. I may need a table saw for some projects, but the projects I undertake that require a table saw are few and are far between. My use won't wear out the saw in my lifetime. Usage of a table saw in my own shop will be at least a couple of orders of magnitude less -- averaging perhaps a few hours per year. Furthermore, without an angry boss-man looming over me to maximize production, I can spend as much time as is necessary to optimize every operation in a safety-first fashion. If we assume that it is just two orders of magnitude of difference, then: Spending an extra $700 for a sawstop-equipped saw is rather unlikely to ever pay for itself in my shop at home. (Now, that's not to say that I wouldn't want this kind of safety feature in my own shop. The idea of losing even part of a finger forever is much scarier to me than spending an extra $700 one time: After all, I can make more money but I can't grow new fingers. It's just not such a financially-obvious choice as it is for professionally-used saws.)