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Nvidia Stock Rises. AMD's New AI Chip Is Not Competitive
- nabla9 2y agoNvidia’s Blackwell GPUs sold out for next 12 months. This likely means that their profit margins jump again when sales from those chips come in. Bernstein Research: MI325X: "Training performance seems 1 year behind Blackwell (on par with H200) while inferencing is only slightly better," MI350X: "Even the company's MI350X tease shows raw performance that, while on par with Blackwell on paper, arrives a year later, just in time to compete against Nvidia's next offerings. Hence we do not see even AMD's accelerated road map closing the competitive gap." https://www.businessinsider.com/amd-latest-gpu-still-lags-behind-nvidia-2024-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/amd-latest-gpu-still-lags-be...
- linotype 2y agoBlackwell being sold out for 12 months sounds like market opportunity for AMD. A chip is better than none.
- gdiamos 2y agoH100s are available at increasingly affordable prices
- markhahn 2y agoyes, the AI bubble is at least deflating. that's what's so corrosive about media coverage and stock-market speculation: it corrupts any actual price signals in the market. there is not an infinite demand for AI training, let alone AI inference.
- robotnikman 2y agoNow if only they could be affordable for the average consumer... A man can dream...
- blihp 2y agoWhen we get to the end of the hype cycle, they will be. The only question is if people will be interested in footing the power bill for any of the ocean of obsolete data center GPUs that companies will be dumping.
- electronbeam 2y agoDepends on what yield AMD has, they may be able to undercut that if aiming for marketshare rather than revenue. The marginal cost of each chip is dollars. The 5 digit prices for H100s are just margins to be undercut
- gdiamos 2y agoAfter deep diving into building datacenters, I realized that traditional clouds (AWS, Google, azure) add a huge margin to GPUs like H100s. You can (and I think should), cut it out by going with coreweave, lambda, another or doing it yourself I’m okay paying that huge margin to first tier cloud for CPUs and disks, which are cheap, but not GPUs
- nabla9 2y agoNvidia will compete with pricing using H100, H200 against AMDs latest. Basically AMD will get sales, but profit margins are nowhere where Nvidia is. Operating income to sales (ttm): AMD: 4% NVDA: 62% Nvidia and AMD and both competing as customers to TSMC for fab supply they need to order 1-2 years in advance. Apple and Nvidia are served first because they are the best paying customers. ps. When Intel was the big dog, it almost killed AMD every time they made a x86 chip that was better than Intel. All Intel had to do was to sacrifice little profit margins, removing AMDs profit. This time the demand is so high that it's not going to happen, so AMD can enjoy the piece it has.
- kolbe 2y agoHow did that strategy work out for Intel?
- dboreham 2y agoDoes it need to be performance competitive if the price is right?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- transcriptase 2y agoGestures broadly at Intel ARC
- moffkalast 2y agoThe A770 launched costing 100 USD more than the RTX 4060, it pulls twice the wattage while underperforming it in every way.
- to11mtm 2y agoIntel continues to toss a stick in their own front wheel and blame whatever. If they made an A775 or whatever with 32GB and sold it for 500, hell even 600 bucks a lot of people would buy it, myself likely included. Lots of people would be happy with a 'slow but can fit big models and still faster than reaching to CPU' card.
- moffkalast 2y agoYeah I mean getting 24GB on one card is extremely expensive and it's not the raw GDDR costs, it's just artificially inflated. Intel could easily do that and even if the prompt processing is supposedly really lackluster on the arcs right now, people would move literal heaven and earth to get it optimized.
- to11mtm 2y ago> Yeah I mean getting 24GB on one card is extremely expensive and it's not the raw GDDR costs, it's just artificially inflated I've gotten on this thought train enough times I started doing some digging... They might need a -little- extra work. Ada 5000 Had 32GB with a 256 bit bus but it's a bit of an outlier... I say it that way because as I did my digging, I'm finding that most boards are 8x16Gb (gigabit) modules resulting in a 256-bit width and 16GB of memory. A 4090 gets to 24GB by going to 384 bit. Obviously, upping the width would potentially be a redesign, but we can again point to the Ada 5000 as a case where 32GB was done on a 256-bit bus. Might be some extra work somewhere but it's doable. Even my quoted price is likely giving Intel and/or board partners some margin, unless I'm missing something about DRAM costs and ability to get the densities required. But as it stands, a 16GB A770 is something on the range of 250-300 USD range. A 32GB version for 600$, should actually give them some good margin compared to 16GB a770s.
- markhahn 2y agothe stock market is just a casino, and this article is just an attempt to pump NVDA. especially if you line up availability dates, AMD is competitive. not to mention price! if there's any news here, it's that the recent announcements are just small tweaks of the MI300. then again, nvidia has announced nothing revolutionary either. does the market (people doing AI, not biz/stock morons) actually want something revolutionary?
- hashtag-til 2y agoIt reminds me of this classic cartoon: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2011/08/11/opinion/081111krugman2/081111krugman2-blog480.jpg https://static01.nyt.com/images/2011/08/11/opinion/081111kru...
- bigdickinurmum 2y ago[flagged]
- jl6 2y agoYes, the market wants a revolution in the amount of VRAM you can fit on a GPU.
- doctorpangloss 2y agoMaybe DRAM manufacturers should be making GPUs.
- to11mtm 2y agoTBH It would be interesting to think about some variant of 3d XPoint on an inferrence-oriented GPU device.
- vladimirralev 2y agoIt used to be a casino. Now it's a matter of monetary policy transmission and a national security issue. They fully and shamelessly embraced the wealth effect as the driving force of the economy. Market always has to go up or else bad things are going to happen.
- 2c2c2c 2y agois it naive to look at the market and just assume there's 500b of market cap screaming for amd to throw everythign at a competent cuda competitor and eventually see commoditization here? is this not possible (why hasnt this happened)?
- dkasper 2y agoSure it’s possible, but it’s also incredibly difficult.
- jjmarr 2y agoThat takes time which is why AMD is making acquisitions and hiring like crazy.
- p1esk 2y agoAMD had 12 years to become competitive. Deep learning revolution started in 2012.
- eptcyka 2y ago12 years ago, Nvidia cared more about gamers than GPGPU, and 8bit floats were definitely not something anyone optimized for.
- Jlagreen 2y agoTotally wrong! Jensen decided to focus on CUDA almost 2 decades ago while Wallstreet called him an idiot back then. 12 years ago, Nvidia started to deliver GPUs for HPC and super computers in research. AlexNet was the special event to transform the company to what it is today.
- manquer 2y agoAnd 6 years ago they cared about crypto miners (whether they wanted to admit public or not). Nvidia really has thick plot armor to be able to ride two massive hype waves.
- 2y ago
- petermcneeley 2y agoCan someone summarize what they mean by not competitive? Yes a new chip from nvidia will not compete with CUDA (a software ecosystem).
- wmf 2y agoAMD's MI325 is slower (maybe 2x slower) than Nvidia B100. Sure it's cheaper and maybe consumes less power but you need more racks, more networking, and more labor to get the same performance.
- ebalit 2y agoI can't find any information that show a difference as large as 2x. Do you have a specific comparison point in mind? From Nvidia and AMD, I read sparse fp8 at 7 PFLOPs for B100 [0] vs 5.22 PFLOPs for mi325x [1] Nvidia doesn't give the dense fp8 so that's the easiest comparison I could get. [0] https://resources.nvidia.com/en-us-blackwell-architecture https://resources.nvidia.com/en-us-blackwell-architecture [1] https://www.amd.com/en/products/accelerators/instinct/mi300/mi325x.html https://www.amd.com/en/products/accelerators/instinct/mi300/...
- RickFrenz 2y agoThe B100 is only 20% faster than the H200 on average within the same target accuracy. There's nothing revolutionary about this architecture, that's why it's 4nm. Nvidia drops precision and adjusts via software to sell a new gen.
- steeve 2y agoI mean, we (zml) clocked MI300X ($20k) at +30% than H100 ($30k). So…
- peterhhchan 2y agoWhat about power consumption? edit: My understanding from about a year ago is that AMD and NVDA's chips were priced similarly in terms of performance per watt.
- wmf 2y agoThat was then. Now it's about MI325 vs. B100.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- RickFrenz 2y agoAgain, the B100 is only 20% faster than the H200 on average within the same target accuracy. There's nothing revolutionary about this architecture, that's why it's 4nm. Nvidia drops precision and makes software improvements to sell a new gen. AMD has a lot to improve with software optimization alone, and in a market where there's a shortage of chips, it doesn't need to beat Nvidia, companies will buy what's available. Production capacity at TSMC is bought up front, AMD and Nvidia are among the biggest customers.