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The most interesting thing to me by far was the lack of a steering wheel on the Robocab. Without manual controls, vague promises ("puffery"?) about autonomy wo

The most interesting thing to me by far was the lack of a steering wheel on the Robocab. Without manual controls, vague promises ("puffery"?) about autonomy won't drive vehicle sales as they do today across all Tesla's models. The Robocab as shown literally cannot function (or make a dime of revenue) until they've fully solved autonomy and have convinced regulators of the same.

forgot-im-old 2y ago
[flagged]
- m463 2y ago
  All that puffery is overestimated in the short term, and underestimated in the long term.
  - ulfw 2y ago
    No it isn't. Where's that Roadster he promised 7.5 years ago? And that's an easier thing to do. https://jalopnik.com/its-still-very-funny-that-1-000-people-gave-tesla-250-1851038764?utm_content=1701104405&utm_source=facebook https://jalopnik.com/its-still-very-funny-that-1-000-people-...
    - m463 2y ago
      ouch, $250,000 of TSLA in nov 2017 would be worth just under $3M today.
- zizee 2y ago
  That Reddit thread reads like /UFOs, i.e. unhinged. Do you have a link to anything more reputable?
  - forgot-im-old 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - nolok 2y ago
      So the answer is no, you do not have a reputable source. Neither comment on reddit nor one here are really valuable source when talking nuclear defense secret. As much as I dislike 99%of what Elon is and represent the past few years, that's doesn't mean we should loss critical thinking.
      - forgot-im-old 2y ago
        The statements are hyperlinked to sources in the comments. You can read those. What in particular are you disputing?
        nolok 2y ago
        The source are talk and wish dreams and nothing more. Elon said a anti missile shield called SHIELD would be cool (nooo, Elon had another random idea from someone who doesn't know the field but has enough pr clout to make it published?), and Elon used to work or at least be in the same building as a general when he visits for a company that do space launch and is critical to US infrastructure needs (noo? you don't say ?) , and someone else said about shield against missile wouldn't be cool (noo?). That's nothing real or factual.
        forgot-im-old 2y ago
        You really don't know what you're talking about. That "visiting 4 Star General" now reports full time to Elon, as the WSJ determined via numerous sources.
        nolok 2y ago
        And? Is he still a general while reporting full time to Elon? If yes you have a bigger scandal, active duty general report full time to private interests! If not then it's what happens when high level public official leaves office to go in the private space, of course he works for one of the connection he made. Unless you have proof that despite his leaving office he has an active decisionnary role on public and defense spending, then you're accusing someone juste because they work after leaving their previous job.
modeless 2y ago
It's not going to be in mass production until 2027 at the earliest, realistically. Will they have unsupervised FSD "next year" as claimed? I doubt it. But by 2027? I think there's a strong possibility. I've been testing FSD since it was released and lately the pace of improvement has gotten a lot faster. And the Cybercab is going to have a much faster onboard computer, and probably more/better cameras.
- m463 2y ago
  I got to try fsd (supervised) recently, and although it wasn't perfect, it was pretty good. I also had to learn to to enable adaptive driving (or whatever it is called) to let the car go slightly over the speed limit and go with the flow of traffic, otherwise it would only go the speed limit and people would rage-pass.
  - perbu 2y ago
    I suspect if it works well 99% of the time, which is pretty good, they're about half way to their goals. Making it work well 99.9999% is probably a lot harder.
- cinntaile 2y ago
  If they were that close, why did Karpathy leave 2 years ago?
  - modeless 2y ago
    You'd have to ask him. He worked there for 5 years, maybe he just wanted a change instead of a second 5 years of sprinting to the goal? In interviews he says he is still bullish on Tesla.
    - cinntaile 2y ago
      There is no reason for him to burn bridges so being bullish doesn't really mean much imo. It sounds like what any socially capable person would say. To me it feels like the traditional auto manufacturers are catching up to Tesla and now they need the next hype to stay ahead of the game. It keeps the stock price high. I am aware this is not a new goal though. I very much doubt it's within reach by 2027. I'm happy to be proven wrong though, driving a car is a bit tedious imo.
davedx 2y ago
That's not entirely true. Waymo have remote control operators, these would have the same - you don't need 100% foolproof autonomy to operate a fleet of cars like this. I am also highly sceptical of everything about Tesla's program though
- rib3ye 2y ago
  You're going to buy a personal car that can be remoted into at any time?
  - luma 2y ago
    These are robotaxis, not personal cars.
    - pelorat 2y ago
      No, the idea is that these are personal vehicles that are not operated by Tesla, but owned by regular people who gets to keep most of the profit they make driving strangers around. Tesla has zero intentions of operating a fleet of autonomous vehicles on their own.
      - fragmede 2y ago
        To the public, sure, but I'm sure their employees need a way to get around.
    - rib3ye 2y ago
      He stated that they would be for sale to individuals.
  - fmobus 2y ago
    Not to mention the gigantic nightmare of liability in case of accidents.
  - valval 2y ago
    With my permission? Sure!
jillesvangurp 2y ago
I'm guessing it will show up first on a lot of private roads. This thing would be perfect on airports, big events, etc. It will be interesting to see what kind of companies will buy this thing. I don't think they'll be selling these to consumers any time soon. The regulator thing is going to be a game of who will give in first and where. Once a few do, it might flip around quickly to regulators being more eager to not miss out. You see a little of that with Waymo where some cities would maybe like to get Waymo in their city sooner rather than later now that they are up and running in more glamorous places like LA and San Francisco. Unfortunately, waymo isn't able to rapidly roll out everywhere rapidly because they have to do a lot of work with mapping and testing in every place they roll out. Tesla might be able to move faster here once they get going and actually give some of these cities an alternative to waiting for Waymo to eventually show up. Of course the whole thing is getting a bit political as well with Elon Musk's backing of Trump. My guess would be that Texas is going to be first. Probably Austin, where Tesla and SpaceX are of course very present. I'm guessing Tesla has pretty warm relationships with the local politicians there. On the other hand, LA needs to look good during the next Olympics and Tesla did just host their Robotaxi event there. Some of those Robovans would probably be helpful in addressing some of the traffic headaches and sustainability goals with the Olympics. Paris just put a huge stake in the ground on that front so there is a fair bit of pressure. There's an opportunity there for Tesla.
SmartJerry 2y ago
Autonomy is solved. It will have hiccups/mistakes, but fewer than a human driver makes. The lack of steering wheel is solved by having support drivers who can work it remotely when the passenger presses a 'help' button or similar.
- notsylver 2y ago
  Solved, just not by Tesla who have been promising it every year since.. 2016?

forgot-im-old 2y ago

[flagged]

m463 2y ago
All that puffery is overestimated in the short term, and underestimated in the long term.
- ulfw 2y ago
  No it isn't. Where's that Roadster he promised 7.5 years ago? And that's an easier thing to do. https://jalopnik.com/its-still-very-funny-that-1-000-people-gave-tesla-250-1851038764?utm_content=1701104405&utm_source=facebook https://jalopnik.com/its-still-very-funny-that-1-000-people-...
  - m463 2y ago
    ouch, $250,000 of TSLA in nov 2017 would be worth just under $3M today.
zizee 2y ago
That Reddit thread reads like /UFOs, i.e. unhinged. Do you have a link to anything more reputable?
- forgot-im-old 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - nolok 2y ago
    So the answer is no, you do not have a reputable source. Neither comment on reddit nor one here are really valuable source when talking nuclear defense secret. As much as I dislike 99%of what Elon is and represent the past few years, that's doesn't mean we should loss critical thinking.
    - forgot-im-old 2y ago
      The statements are hyperlinked to sources in the comments. You can read those. What in particular are you disputing?
      - nolok 2y ago
        The source are talk and wish dreams and nothing more. Elon said a anti missile shield called SHIELD would be cool (nooo, Elon had another random idea from someone who doesn't know the field but has enough pr clout to make it published?), and Elon used to work or at least be in the same building as a general when he visits for a company that do space launch and is critical to US infrastructure needs (noo? you don't say ?) , and someone else said about shield against missile wouldn't be cool (noo?). That's nothing real or factual.
        forgot-im-old 2y ago
        You really don't know what you're talking about. That "visiting 4 Star General" now reports full time to Elon, as the WSJ determined via numerous sources.
        nolok 2y ago
        And? Is he still a general while reporting full time to Elon? If yes you have a bigger scandal, active duty general report full time to private interests! If not then it's what happens when high level public official leaves office to go in the private space, of course he works for one of the connection he made. Unless you have proof that despite his leaving office he has an active decisionnary role on public and defense spending, then you're accusing someone juste because they work after leaving their previous job.

modeless 2y ago

It's not going to be in mass production until 2027 at the earliest, realistically. Will they have unsupervised FSD "next year" as claimed? I doubt it. But by 2027? I think there's a strong possibility. I've been testing FSD since it was released and lately the pace of improvement has gotten a lot faster. And the Cybercab is going to have a much faster onboard computer, and probably more/better cameras.

m463 2y ago
I got to try fsd (supervised) recently, and although it wasn't perfect, it was pretty good. I also had to learn to to enable adaptive driving (or whatever it is called) to let the car go slightly over the speed limit and go with the flow of traffic, otherwise it would only go the speed limit and people would rage-pass.
- perbu 2y ago
  I suspect if it works well 99% of the time, which is pretty good, they're about half way to their goals. Making it work well 99.9999% is probably a lot harder.
cinntaile 2y ago
If they were that close, why did Karpathy leave 2 years ago?
- modeless 2y ago
  You'd have to ask him. He worked there for 5 years, maybe he just wanted a change instead of a second 5 years of sprinting to the goal? In interviews he says he is still bullish on Tesla.
  - cinntaile 2y ago
    There is no reason for him to burn bridges so being bullish doesn't really mean much imo. It sounds like what any socially capable person would say. To me it feels like the traditional auto manufacturers are catching up to Tesla and now they need the next hype to stay ahead of the game. It keeps the stock price high. I am aware this is not a new goal though. I very much doubt it's within reach by 2027. I'm happy to be proven wrong though, driving a car is a bit tedious imo.

davedx 2y ago

That's not entirely true. Waymo have remote control operators, these would have the same - you don't need 100% foolproof autonomy to operate a fleet of cars like this. I am also highly sceptical of everything about Tesla's program though

rib3ye 2y ago
You're going to buy a personal car that can be remoted into at any time?
- luma 2y ago
  These are robotaxis, not personal cars.
  - pelorat 2y ago
    No, the idea is that these are personal vehicles that are not operated by Tesla, but owned by regular people who gets to keep most of the profit they make driving strangers around. Tesla has zero intentions of operating a fleet of autonomous vehicles on their own.
    - fragmede 2y ago
      To the public, sure, but I'm sure their employees need a way to get around.
  - rib3ye 2y ago
    He stated that they would be for sale to individuals.
- fmobus 2y ago
  Not to mention the gigantic nightmare of liability in case of accidents.
- valval 2y ago
  With my permission? Sure!

jillesvangurp 2y ago

I'm guessing it will show up first on a lot of private roads. This thing would be perfect on airports, big events, etc. It will be interesting to see what kind of companies will buy this thing. I don't think they'll be selling these to consumers any time soon. The regulator thing is going to be a game of who will give in first and where. Once a few do, it might flip around quickly to regulators being more eager to not miss out. You see a little of that with Waymo where some cities would maybe like to get Waymo in their city sooner rather than later now that they are up and running in more glamorous places like LA and San Francisco. Unfortunately, waymo isn't able to rapidly roll out everywhere rapidly because they have to do a lot of work with mapping and testing in every place they roll out. Tesla might be able to move faster here once they get going and actually give some of these cities an alternative to waiting for Waymo to eventually show up. Of course the whole thing is getting a bit political as well with Elon Musk's backing of Trump. My guess would be that Texas is going to be first. Probably Austin, where Tesla and SpaceX are of course very present. I'm guessing Tesla has pretty warm relationships with the local politicians there. On the other hand, LA needs to look good during the next Olympics and Tesla did just host their Robotaxi event there. Some of those Robovans would probably be helpful in addressing some of the traffic headaches and sustainability goals with the Olympics. Paris just put a huge stake in the ground on that front so there is a fair bit of pressure. There's an opportunity there for Tesla.

SmartJerry 2y ago

Autonomy is solved. It will have hiccups/mistakes, but fewer than a human driver makes. The lack of steering wheel is solved by having support drivers who can work it remotely when the passenger presses a 'help' button or similar.

notsylver 2y ago
Solved, just not by Tesla who have been promising it every year since.. 2016?